** WTCA45 TJSJ 170615 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN EMILY CATEGORIA CUATRO PASANDO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE CHETUMAL AL NORTE A CABO CATOCHE... INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS MUJERES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE EN LA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN A CAMPECE EN LA COSTA OESTE DEL YUCATAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES SOBRE PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE CUBA...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.2 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS... 175 KM...AL SUR DE GRAND CAYMAN Y ALREDEDOR DE 415 MILLAS...670 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE EMILY CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE JAMAICA DURANTE LA NOCHE Y ESTARA CERCA DE GRAND CAYMAN TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON POSIBLE...EMILY PODRIA TORNARSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. . LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 943 MB...27.85 PULGADAS. MAREAS SOBRE LO NORMAL ACOMPANDO DE GRANDE OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE JAMAICA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN CON ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL OESTE DE JAMAICA CON POSIBLES. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE SURESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS LOCALES DE HASTA DE 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...17.7 NORTE... 81.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...943 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 170630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA . CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 170630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 17-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA . CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 22.3N 125.0E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.5N 121.3E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.8N 118.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 27.6N 117.2E 990HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 920 HPA AT 22.3N 125.0E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.6N 123.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.4N 121.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 26.0N 120.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 27.5N 118.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 22.3N 125.0E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 24.4N 121.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 190600UTC 26.0N 120.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 200600UTC 27.5N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170700 UTC 00HR 22.4N 124.8E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 170745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 170600 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170800 UTC 00HR 22.6N 124.7E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT25 KNHC 170839 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z SUN JUL 17 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 82.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 215SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 82.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 82.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 170840 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 165 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 170840 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.2N 87.4W 45 1 X X 46 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 21.5N 90.2W X 31 X X 31 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 22.7N 93.0W X 9 15 1 25 GALVESTON TX X X X 6 6 MWCG 193N 814W 40 X X X 40 FREEPORT TX X X X 7 7 MUAN 219N 850W 8 3 X 1 12 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 9 9 MMCZ 205N 869W 45 1 X X 46 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 10 10 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 X X 1 5 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 3 11 14 MMSO 238N 982W X X 4 11 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 MMTM 222N 979W X X 4 10 14 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 3 4 MMTX 210N 974W X X 4 8 12 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 6 7 MMVR 192N 961W X X 2 6 8 GULF 28N 95W X X 1 8 9 MMFR 185N 926W X 2 3 2 7 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 11 13 MMMD 210N 897W 4 29 X X 33 GULF 25N 96W X X 9 8 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 124.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 124.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.3N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.1N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.7N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.1N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 26.7N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 124.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A BREAKDOWN IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SHRINKING EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 170858 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE YUCATAN. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK...EMILY COULD SPEND ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER LAND. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AMPLE TIME IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS FOR EMILY TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE APPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 18.0N 82.0W 130 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.5W 130 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 20.2N 87.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 97.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 170907 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN EMILY EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO PASANDO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...SE ENCAMINA HACIA EL YUCATAN... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE CHETUMAL AL NORTE A CABO CATOCHE...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS MUJERES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE EN LA LA COSTA NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN A CAMPECE EN LA COSTA OESTE DEL YUCATAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES SOBRE PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.0 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 165 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y ALREDEDOR DE 365 MILLAS...585 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE EMILY CALCANZARA LA PENINSULA DE UYUCATAN MUY TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON COMUN CON UN HURACAN MAYOR...PERO POCO CAMBIO EN SU FORTALEZA ES ANTICIPADO ANTES DE QUE LLEGUE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 938 MB...27.70 PULGADAS. MAREAS SOBRE LO NORMAL ACOMPANDO DE GRANDES OLAS Y PELIGROSAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE JAMAICA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. INUNDACIONES EN LA COSTA CON LA MAREA CICLONICA CON MAREAS DE 8A 12 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANDO DE GRANDES OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDE ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRL TOQUE TIERRA EN MEXICO. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA SON POSIBLES. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS LOCALES DE HASTA DE 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...18.0 NORTE... 82.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...938 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMECIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM...SEGUIDOI POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC 00HR 22.7N 124.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC 00HR 22.7N 124.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.8N 121.1E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 170600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0600 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180600 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 190600 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 200600 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 170600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0600 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.3N 125.0E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS 53MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 180600 24.2N 121.5E AT 190600 25.2N 118.8E AT 200600 25.5N 117.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 925 HPA AT 22.7N 124.4E SOUTH OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 23.9N 122.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 24.9N 120.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 22.7N 124.4E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 24.9N 120.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 190600UTC 26.0N 120.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 200600UTC 27.5N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171000 UTC 00HR 22.8N 124.4E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 171045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT35 KNHC 171143 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171100 UTC 00HR 22.9N 124.2E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H=