** WTNT35 KNHC 170000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 170000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... 240 KM. FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 21.4N 125.9E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WN 20KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 121.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.9N 118.8E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 28.0N 116.5E 988HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 21.4N 125.9E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.6N 121.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.9N 118.8E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 28.0N 116.5E 988HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 21.5N 125.8E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.7N 123.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 23.9N 121.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.3N 119.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.6N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 21.5N 125.8E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 325NM NORTH 300NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 23.9N 121.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 190000UTC 25.3N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 200000UTC 26.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORT HWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 170000UTC 21.5N 125.8E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 915HPA 105KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180000UTC 24.2N 121.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 190000UTC 25.6N 119.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 200000UTC 26.9N 118.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 54KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170100 UTC 00HR 21.5N 125.7E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170200 UTC 00HR 21.7N 125.7E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 125.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 125.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.3N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.1N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.8N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.5N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 25.6N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 125.2E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WHICH HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 170246 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480 MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 170246 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z SUN JUL 17 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 215SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 80.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 25SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 80.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 170247 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.8N 85.8W 48 1 X X 49 MMFR 185N 926W X 1 4 3 8 21.0N 89.0W 1 34 1 X 36 MMMD 210N 897W X 31 2 X 33 22.2N 92.0W X 7 21 1 29 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 MKJS 185N 779W 2 X X X 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7 MWCG 193N 814W 64 X X X 64 FREEPORT TX X X X 9 9 MUSN 216N 826W 8 X X X 8 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 12 12 MUAN 219N 850W 18 8 X X 26 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 14 14 MMCZ 205N 869W 32 11 X X 43 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 18 18 MZBZ 175N 883W 1 2 1 X 4 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 3 4 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 16 16 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 8 9 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 14 14 GULF 28N 95W X X X 12 12 MMTX 210N 974W X X 1 10 11 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 15 16 MMVR 192N 961W X X 1 6 7 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 18 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 170304 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED 931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS... AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON... HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170300 UTC 00HR 21.8N 125.5E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 21.9N 125.4E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 23.3N 123.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 24.3N 121.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 21.9N 125.4E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 24.3N 121.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 190000UTC 25.3N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 200000UTC 26.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 170000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 0000 17 JULY TYPHOON HAITANG 0505 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST AT 20000 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EASTALL SHIPS WITHIN TYHPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPMM 170000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 0000 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR MTERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PPER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190000 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST AT 200000 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170400 UTC 00HR 22.0N 125.2E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 170457 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 79.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.07.2005 17.0N 79.6W STRONG 12UTC 17.07.2005 17.9N 82.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2005 19.4N 85.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 20.6N 87.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.0N 90.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 22.8N 93.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 23.0N 95.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 23.6N 97.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 25.8N 100.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170457 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 170500 UTC 00HR 22.2N 125.1E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 170551 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$