** WTCA45 TJSJ 161804 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST SABADO 16 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN EMILY EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO SE FORTALECE A MEDIDA QUE PASA SOBRE JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL HASTA CABO CATOCHE INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MUJERES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA HAITI FUE CANCELADO. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENOTS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.0 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 295 MILLAS...480 KM... AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE LLEVAR EL CENTRO DE EMILY AL SUR DE JAMAICA EN EL DIA DE HOY Y CERCA DE LA ISLA GRAND CAYMAN ESTA NOCHE. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY PODRIA TORNARSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. PARA JAMAICA...VIENTOS HURACANADO PODRIAN OCURRIR EN RAFAGAS MAS TARDE HOY EN LAS COSTAS...CON POSIBILIDAD DE VIENTOS HUACANADOS SOSTENIDOS EN AREAS ELEVADAS...ESPECIALMENTE SOBRE 3000 PIES DE ALTURA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE EMILY ESTIMADA ERA DE 937 MB...27.66 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...CON CANTIDADES MENORES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE CUBA ORIENTAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...16.4 NORTE... 78.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 155 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...937 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 20.9N 126.7E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 122.1E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 25.4N 119.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 27.9N 118.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 20.9N 126.6E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.3N 122.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.1N 119.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 26.4N 118.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 20.9N 126.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 23.3N 122.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 181800UTC 25.1N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 191800UTC 26.4N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 126.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.0N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.0N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.9N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.5N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.4N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 125.9E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WHICH HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 162045 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 162045 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z SAT JUL 16 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 215SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 78.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 81.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.1N 84.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 78.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 162046 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.1N 84.4W 48 1 X X 49 MMFR 185N 926W X X 7 4 11 20.4N 87.7W 1 33 1 X 35 MMMD 210N 897W X 17 12 X 29 21.6N 90.7W X 6 20 1 27 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W 6 X X X 6 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 MKJS 185N 779W 6 X X X 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7 MWCG 193N 814W 53 X X X 53 FREEPORT TX X X X 8 8 MUSN 216N 826W 9 3 X X 12 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 10 10 MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 X X 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 11 11 MUAN 219N 850W 3 22 X X 25 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 15 15 MMCZ 205N 869W 2 35 X X 37 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 2 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X 10 2 X 12 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 5 6 MHNJ 165N 859W 2 1 X X 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 10 10 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 13 13 GULF 28N 95W X X X 11 11 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 12 12 GULF 27N 96W X X X 14 14 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 10 10 GULF 25N 96W X X X 18 18 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 8 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 162100 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. AT ABOUT 17Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 937 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 151 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY HAS GOTTEN STRONGER SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM. HOWEVER... THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE DOES NOT YET SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS...SO ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE INTITAL WINDS WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED NEAR 00Z. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST SET OF RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH GUNS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS 20 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING EMILY FROM WHICH IT FORECASTS WEAKENING... BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SATELLITE- DERIVED WINDS FROM CIMSS. A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF AN OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME OUTER BANDING THAT COULD SOON WRAP UP INTO AN OUTER EYEWALL. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND 135 KT AS THE HURRICANE GOES THROUGH INTERNAL CYCLES. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF EMILY BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE FOR SOME PART OF THE NEXT 24 HR. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE GREATLY REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE SOMEWHAT REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 16.8N 78.8W 135 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 81.2W 135 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 19.1N 84.4W 135 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.7W 125 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.7W 100 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 19/1800Z 23.5N 96.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 162100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 162100 UTC 00HR 21.1N 126.2E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 121.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+48HR 25.2N 119.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 26.9N 117.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 161800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 1800 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.9N 126.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS 53MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 171800 23.2N 122.4E AT 181800 24.9N 119.9E AND AT 191800 26.3N 118.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 21.2N 126.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 325NM NORTH 300NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 23.5N 122.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 181800UTC 25.1N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 191800UTC 26.4N 118.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 21.2N 126.2E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 23.5N 122.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=