** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT65 KNHC 161212 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 944 MB AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 161200UTC 20.7N 127.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 171200UTC 23.3N 122.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 181200UTC 25.7N 120.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 191200UTC 27.0N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 161200 *** WARNING 161200. WARNING VALID 171200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 20.7N 127.7E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.3N 122.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.7N 120.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 27.0N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC 00HR 20.7N 127.7E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 122.9E 910HPA 65M/S P+48HR 25.7N 119.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 27.9N 118.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 161500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 127.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 127.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.8N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.8N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.7N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.4N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.9N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 28.3N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 127.1E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 161430 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.2 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 161431 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z SAT JUL 16 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 77.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 76.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...135NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 161431 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.5N 83.0W 49 1 X X 50 MMMD 210N 897W X 3 23 1 27 19.9N 86.2W 1 35 1 X 37 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 21.3N 89.4W X 4 24 1 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W 16 X X X 16 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3 MKJS 185N 779W 19 X X X 19 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W 47 X X X 47 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7 MUSN 216N 826W 4 13 X X 17 FREEPORT TX X X X 8 8 MUHA 230N 824W X 3 X X 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 8 8 MUAN 219N 850W X 26 1 1 28 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 8 8 MMCZ 205N 869W X 31 4 X 35 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 11 11 MZBZ 175N 883W X 5 7 X 12 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 4 5 MHNJ 165N 859W 2 5 X 1 8 GULF 28N 91W X X X 9 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 9 9 GULF 28N 93W X X X 11 11 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 95W X X X 11 11 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 6 6 GULF 27N 96W X X X 12 12 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 5 5 GULF 25N 96W X X X 15 15 MMFR 185N 926W X X 2 7 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 161450 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 16 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN EMILY EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE...BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTENDIENDOSE SOBRE JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...EL GIBOERNO DE MEXICO EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL HASTA CABO CATOCHE INCLUYENDO ISLAS MUJERES. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. ESTE AVISO PDRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. A LAS 11 AM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE BELIZE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTE TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENOTS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.3 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS... 205 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 335 MILLAS...540 KM... AL SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE LLEVAR EL CENTRO DE EMILY AL SUR DE JAMAICA EN EL DIA DE HOY Y CERCA DE LA ISLA GRAND CAYMAN ESTA NOCHE. LOS REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. PARA JAMAICA...VIENTOS HURACANADO PODRIAN OCURRIR EN RAFAGAS MAS TARDE HOY EN LAS COSTAS...CON POSIBILIDAD DE VIENTOS HUACANADOS SOSTENIDOS EN AREAS ELEVADAS...ESPECIALMENTE SOBRE 3000 PIES DE ALTURA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY ESTIMADA ERA DE 943 MB...27.85 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...CON CANTIDADES MENORES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE CUBA ORIENTAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...16.2 NORTE... 77.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...943 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 161450 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 EMILY HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 943 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 148 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 130-135 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND EYEWALL DROPSONDES DO NOT YET SUPPORT WINDS THIS HIGH. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16...JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. EMILY IS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR AT LEAST 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE RIDGE TO FILL IN AND LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EMILY HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 13 N MI WIDE EYE AND A STRONG OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE MAJOR FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT EYEWALL CYCLES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INFLUENCE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 16.2N 77.3W 125 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.7W 130 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 83.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 86.2W 130 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.3N 89.4W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.5N 94.5W 105 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 161500 UTC 00HR 20.8N 127.0E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR N E HPA M/S P+48HR N E HPA M/S P+72HR N E HPA M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161500 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 161500 UTC 00HR 20.8N 127.0E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 161500 UTC 00HR 20.8N 127.0E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR N E HPA M/S P+48HR N E HPA M/S P+72HR N E HPA M/S= ** WTNT65 KNHC 161544 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 940 MB AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 161500UTC 20.8N 127.0E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 171500UTC 23.5N 122.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 181200UTC 25.7N 120.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 191200UTC 27.0N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 161500 *** WARNING 161500. WARNING VALID 171500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 915 HPA AT 20.8N 127.0E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 23.5N 122.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 161200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 1200 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171200 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 181200 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST AT 191200 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 161200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 06 AT 1200 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KMS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171200 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AT 181200 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST AT 191200 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 161720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 12.1N 111.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2005 13.1N 111.6W WEAK 12UTC 18.07.2005 12.8N 111.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 12.7N 111.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 13.5N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 14.5N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 16.0N 110.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 17.7N 109.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 76.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.07.2005 16.0N 76.5W STRONG 00UTC 17.07.2005 17.2N 79.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 18.7N 82.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2005 19.7N 86.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 21.1N 89.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.8N 92.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 24.4N 94.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 25.3N 97.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 26.6N 100.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161720 ** WTNT35 KNHC 161745 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELLED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$