** WTCA45 TJSJ 160639 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST SABADO 16 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO SE ESTA ORGANIZANDO MEJOR AL SURESTE DE JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODAS ISLAS CAYMAN. A LAS 2 PM AST...0600Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 2 PM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.0 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS... 350 KM...AL SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 495 MILLAS...795 KM... SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY ESTARIA PASANDO AL SUR DE JAMAICA ESTA MANANA Y TARDE. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON COMUNES EN LOS HURACANES MAYORES Y SON DE ESPERAR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA BOYA DEL NOAA #42058 LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 40 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DEL CENTRO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 47 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 953 MB...28.14 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSICLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES MENORES DE 3 A 6 PULADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y CUBA ORIENTAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...15.3 NORTE... 75.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...953 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 20.3N 129.1E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 220KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 123.8E 925HPA 60M/S P+48HR 25.0N 120.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 26.8N 118.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 925 HPA AT 20.3N 129.1E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.2N 124.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.7N 120.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 26.4N 119.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 20.3N 129.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 22.2N 124.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 180600UTC 24.7N 120.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 190600UTC 26.4N 119.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORT HWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 160705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA . CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT65 KNHC 160716 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... SHORTLY BEFORE 300 AM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 953 MB AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG. THIS WIND SPEED IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A SURFACE WIND OF 118 KT...OR 136 MPH...WHICH MAKES EMILY A SOLID CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT IS THAT JUST 90 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88-92 KT...OR APPROXIMATELY 79-83 KT/90-95 MPH...WERE INDICATED IN THE LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT HAS FORMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THE RAIN BAND PERSISTS...THEN HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS EMILY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 160832 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.6 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 160833 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z SAT JUL 16 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W...OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULFMEX MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W...INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 160834 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE JUL 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.5N 81.5W 48 1 X X 49 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 2 2 18.9N 84.7W 1 34 1 X 36 MMFR 185N 926W X X 1 7 8 20.3N 87.6W X 6 22 1 29 MMMD 210N 897W X X 18 7 25 MKJP 179N 768W 22 X X X 22 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MKJS 185N 779W 21 X X X 21 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 MWCG 193N 814W 25 10 X X 35 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 11 3 X 14 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 1 1 4 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W X 10 12 X 22 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 5 5 MMCZ 205N 869W X 11 19 X 30 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 8 8 MZBZ 175N 883W X 2 10 2 14 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 2 3 GULF 28N 91W X X X 7 7 MHNJ 165N 859W X 10 3 X 13 GULF 28N 93W X X X 9 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 95W X X X 9 9 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 4 4 GULF 27N 96W X X X 10 10 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 3 3 GULF 25N 96W X X X 13 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 160847 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SABADO 16 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN EMILY CONTINUA HACIA JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENT SEA NECESARIO PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.8 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS... 440 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 495 MILLAS...705 KM... SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON COMUNES EN LOS HURACANES MAYORES Y SON DE ESPERAR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. PARA JAMAICA...VIENTOS HURACANADO PODRIAN OCURRIR EN RAFAGAS MAS TARDE HOY EN LAS COSTAS...CON POSIBILIDAD DE VIENTOS HUACANADOS SOSTENIDOS EN AREAS ELEVADAS...ESPECIALMENTE SOBRE 3000 PIES DE ALTURA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 950 MB...28.05 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSICLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES MENORES DE 3 A 6 PULADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y CUBA ORIENTAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...15.6 NORTE... 75.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 140 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...950 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERAN EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM...SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA QUE SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.6N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.6N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.7N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.5N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 128.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE AND CLOUD-FREE EYE WITH WELL-DEFINED EQUATOR- WARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 160857 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR 118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE HEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT MOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND PASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS DIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NICE ROUND CDO...AND WITH WARMER WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW...THE ONLY INHIBITING INTENSITY FACTORS SHOULD BE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND LAND INTERACTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ABOUT 30 KT AS IT PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IT COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH DUE TO 29-30C SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 15.6N 75.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 16.3N 78.3W 125 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 81.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.9N 84.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.3N 87.6W 115 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN 72HR VT 19/0600Z 23.1N 92.9W 90 KT...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX 96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.0N 97.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 35 KT...INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC 00HR 20.6N 128.5E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 123.5E 920HPA 60M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 160600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 0600 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.3N 129.1E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 943 HECTOPASCALS MAX WNDS 50KMS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 170600 22.3N 123.7E AT 180600 24.1N 120.8E AND AT 190600 25.8N 119.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 160900 *** WARNING 160900. WARNING VALID 170900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 920 HPA AT 20.5N 128.5E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 22.7N 123.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 20.5N 128.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 50KT 140NM 30KT 300NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 22.7N 123.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 180600UTC 24.7N 120.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 190600UTC 26.4N 119.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 160600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 0600 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG){0505} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 180600 TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT EAST AT 190600 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTNT35 KNHC 161144 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395 MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 161158 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST SABADO 16 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN EMILY COMINEZA A PASAR AL SUR DE JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS IAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA NECESARIO PARA PORCIONES ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN MAS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.5 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS... 230 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y ALREDEDOR DE 395 MILLAS...635 KM... SURESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA SON POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. PARA JAMAICA...VIENTOS HURACANADO PODRIAN OCURRIR EN RAFAGAS MAS TARDE HOY EN LAS COSTAS...CON POSIBILIDAD DE VIENTOS HUACANADOS SOSTENIDOS EN AREAS ELEVADAS...ESPECIALMENTE SOBRE 3000 PIES DE ALTURA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY ESTIMADA ERA DE 947 MB...27.96 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLE SOBRE EL TERRENO MONTANOSO. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSICLES SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...CON CANTIDADES MENORES DE 3 A 6 PULADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA Y CUBA ORIENTAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...15.9 NORTE... 76.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 140 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...947 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERAN EXPEDIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$