** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 160000 UTC 00HR 19.9N 130.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 125.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 24.2N 121.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 26.2N 119.6E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 160000 *** WARNING 160000. WARNING VALID 170000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 930 HPA AT 19.9N 130.4E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.3N 125.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.8N 121.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 26.8N 120.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 19.9N 130.4E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 22.3N 125.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 180000UTC 24.8N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 190000UTC 26.8N 120.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORT HWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 160000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 160000UTC 19.9N 130.4E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 930HPA 93KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170000UTC 22.0N 125.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 48HR POSITION 180000UTC 24.8N 122.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 930HPA 95KT 72HR POSITION 190000UTC 27.2N 120.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.6N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 064 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 117 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.5N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 068 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 123 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 123 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.5N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 127 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 127 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.8N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 033 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.5N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 129.7E. SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 160252 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545 MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 160253 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z SAT JUL 16 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 74.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 160253 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON JUL 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.0N 79.9W 48 2 X X 50 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 8 8 18.6N 83.2W X 37 1 X 38 MMMD 210N 897W X X 8 15 23 20.1N 86.4W X 4 26 X 30 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W 32 X X X 32 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MKJS 185N 779W 27 1 X X 28 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W 3 33 X X 36 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X 3 1 X 4 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4 MUSN 216N 826W X 13 7 X 20 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 6 X 8 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X 4 22 X 26 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X 1 27 1 29 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 5 5 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 7 6 13 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 MGPB 157N 886W X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 MHNJ 165N 859W X 4 8 X 12 GULF 28N 93W X X X 8 8 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 95W X X X 7 7 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X X 7 7 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X X 9 9 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 160310 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 EMILY HAS ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AGAIN...WHICH WE KNOW THANKS TO FREQUENT FIXES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION TONIGHT. SINCE ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 15 MB TO 954 MB. VERY RECENT MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AS HIGH AS 128 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...UP FROM 108 KT IN THAT SAME QUADRANT JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA AT ABOUT 8 AND 50 NMI...SUGGESTING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO A REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO FORECAST SUCH STRUCTURAL CHANGES...SO I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 115 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE INCREASINGLY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INTENSITY COULD OF COURSE FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES. EMILY MIGHT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IF IT SPENDS ENOUGH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION...SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME WOBBLES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EMILY ON MUCH THIS SAME HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHEN EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS THIS TIME SHIFTED SOUTH. AS WE USUALLY DO WHEN THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH...I WILL ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 15.1N 74.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.8N 76.6W 115 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 79.9W 115 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.6N 83.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.1N 86.4W 115 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 92.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 160300 UTC 00HR 20.1N 129.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 160300 *** WARNING 160300. WARNING VALID 170300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 930 HPA AT 20.1N 129.8E SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 22.6N 124.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 20.1N 129.8E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 22.6N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 925HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 180000UTC 24.8N 121.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 190000UTC 26.8N 120.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 160000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 0000 16 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 19.9N 130.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 07MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS S MAX WNDS 48KMS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 170000 22.0N 124.7E AT 180000 24.1N 121.5E AND AT 190000 26.5N 119.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 160000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 0000 16 JULY TYPHOON HAITANG 0505 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST AT 180000 TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 190000 TWO SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 160539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.07.2005 HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 73.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.07.2005 14.8N 73.3W STRONG 12UTC 16.07.2005 16.0N 76.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2005 17.2N 79.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 18.6N 83.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 20.2N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 21.4N 90.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.7N 93.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.0N 95.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 23.8N 97.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 12.2N 110.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.07.2005 12.2N 110.5W WEAK 00UTC 18.07.2005 12.2N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 12.2N 112.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 12.0N 113.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 13.8N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 14.7N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 16.2N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 17.0N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2005 17.8N 112.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 18.8N 112.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 19.7N 51.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2005 21.4N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 25.9N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 29.1N 54.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 30.0N 55.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 32.3N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 32.9N 52.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 32.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 31.5N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2005 31.2N 44.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 31.3N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2005 32.4N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160539 ** WTNT35 KNHC 160557 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 ...CATGEORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 495 MILES... 795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASS TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT LEAST 135 MPH...215 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MEANS EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...15.3 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$