** WTPQ20 BABJ 151800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 151800 UTC 00HR 19.5N 131.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 21.4N 125.6E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 24.0N 122.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 26.0N 120.0E 945HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151800 *** WARNING 151800. WARNING VALID 161800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 940 HPA AT 19.6N 131.9E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 21.6N 126.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.5N 123.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.6N 121.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 19.6N 131.9E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 21.6N 126.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 171800UTC 23.5N 123.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 181800UTC 25.6N 121.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 151916 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE DEBILITA UN POCO MAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODO JAMAICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.0 OESTE O COMO A 395 MILLAS... 635 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EMILY ESTARIA PASANDO AL SUR O MUY CERCA DE JAMAICA EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DSIMINUIDO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ESPERA UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN FORTALECIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 969 MB...28.61 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA. SE ESPERA TAMBIEN QUE EMILY PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...14.5 NORTE... 72.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...969 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 152038 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z FRI JUL 15 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 72.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 152042 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...EMILY WEAKENS BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 152043 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RECORDED AS THE PLANE LEFT THE CYCLONE WAS 101 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 90 KNOTS AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT WITH THE MID OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT LARGE MID TO UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER EMILY. NEVERTHERELESS...THE HURRICANE IS PUTTING UP A GOOD FIGHT AGAINST THE SHEAR. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF SUCH WEAKENING YET...AND IN FACT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TOWARD THE HURRICANE ARE STRONGER NOW THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS INSIST ON FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...EMILY IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH AND HISTORICALLY CYCLONES INTENSIFY. THE BEST OPTION DESPITE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF EMILY IS TO KEEP THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FORECAST A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THERAFTER. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST YET. BECAUSE EMILY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN HIGH TO THE NORTH...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS TURN AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.7N 72.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 78.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 82.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 22.5N 91.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 25.0N 96.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 152043 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON JUL 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.6N 78.9W 48 1 X X 49 MMMD 210N 897W X X 3 18 21 18.3N 82.0W X 37 1 X 38 KEY WEST FL X X 1 1 2 20.0N 85.5W X 2 28 1 31 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W 29 X X X 29 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2 MKJS 185N 779W 23 4 X X 27 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W X 35 1 X 36 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 4 4 X 8 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 8 16 X 24 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 10 1 12 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 25 1 27 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 23 4 27 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 8 11 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 MHNJ 165N 859W X 1 7 2 10 GULF 28N 93W X X X 8 8 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 5 5 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X X 5 5 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X X 7 7 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 131.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 131.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.1N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 064 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 117 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 068 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 123 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 123 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.9N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 127 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 127 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.0N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 041 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 071 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.6N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 033 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 034 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.4N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 28.1N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 131.1E. TY 05W (HAITANG) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH A WELL ORGANIZED EYE AS DEPICTED BY A 151304Z AMSU IMAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 152054 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...CORRECTION TO REMOVE THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LINE... ...EMILY WEAKENS BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 152100 *** WARNING 152100. WARNING VALID 162100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 940 HPA AT 19.7N 131.1E SOUTH OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 22.0N 125.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 19.7N 131.1E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 22.0N 125.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 171800UTC 23.5N 123.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 181800UTC 25.6N 121.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 1800 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMINOL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 171800 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 181800 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 151800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 1800 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 171800 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 181800 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT35 KNHC 152359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITH 115 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$