** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 151200 *** WARNING 151200. WARNING VALID 161200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 940 HPA AT 19.3N 133.5E WESTSOUTHWEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 290 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 20.9N 127.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.1N 123.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.1N 121.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 151200UTC 19.3N 133.5E GOOD MOVE W 13KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 290NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161200UTC 20.9N 127.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 171200UTC 23.1N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 181200UTC 25.1N 121.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 151200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 151200 UTC 00HR 19.2N 133.6E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 127.4E 935HPA 50M/S P+48HR 22.5N 122.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 25.1N 120.6E 935HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 133.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 133.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.8N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 064 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 117 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 116 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 068 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 123 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 123 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.3N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 039 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 127 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 124 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 124 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 127 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.3N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 041 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 071 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 24.2N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 033 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 034 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 063 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 061 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 062 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 133 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 26.1N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 28.1N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 132.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 151435 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ....EMILY A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465 MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 151436 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z FRI JUL 15 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 70.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 98.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 70.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 151436 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON JUL 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.5N 77.0W 48 1 X X 49 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 9 9 18.0N 80.0W 1 35 1 X 37 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 19.5N 83.0W X 5 24 1 30 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 7 9 MTCA 183N 738W 5 X X X 5 MNPC 141N 834W X X 1 1 2 MKJP 179N 768W 33 6 X X 39 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 3 3 MKJS 185N 779W 10 26 X X 36 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 16 16 MWCG 193N 814W X 22 11 X 33 MARATHON FL X X 2 3 5 MUGM 200N 751W 1 1 X X 2 KEY WEST FL X X 4 4 8 MUCM 214N 779W X 5 3 X 8 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X 3 14 X 17 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 23 2 26 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 MUHA 230N 824W X X 14 4 18 GULF 28N 89W X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W X X 15 10 25 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 4 18 22 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 151444 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 AN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY OBSERVING THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 8 AND 25 N MI RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EMILY MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE LAST TIME THE RECON MEASURED WINDS TO SUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 110 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT WAS FOR DENNIS LAST WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WERE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND THEY STILL DO...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LARGER INSTEAD. THEREFORE... SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT ASSUMING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT IN FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...EMILY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND WEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS THE STRONGEST FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE SINCE ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS SO FAR. THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES RADAR LOCATED AT CURACAO. - FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.4N 70.9W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 73.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.5N 77.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 83.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 89.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 98.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 151508 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY UN POCO MAS DEBIL...CONTINUA SIENDO UN HURACAN PELIGROSO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODO JAMAICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.9 OESTE O COMO A 465 MILLAS... 745 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EMILY ESTARIA PSANDO AL SUR O MUY CERCA DE JAMAICA EL SABADO. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUNA FKUCTUACION EN SU FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 968 MB...28.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...14.4 NORTE... 70.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...968 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 151508 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY UN POCO MAS DEBIL...CONTINUA SIENDO UN HURACAN PELIGROSO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODO JAMAICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.9 OESTE O COMO A 465 MILLAS... 745 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EMILY ESTARIA PSANDO AL SUR O MUY CERCA DE JAMAICA EL SABADO. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUNA FKUCTUACION EN SU FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 968 MB...28.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...14.4 NORTE... 70.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...968 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 151200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 1200 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 TO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 171200 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 181200 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 151500UTC 19.4N 132.7E GOOD MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 161500UTC 21.3N 126.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 171200UTC 23.1N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 181200UTC 25.1N 121.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 151500 *** WARNING 151500. WARNING VALID 161500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 940 HPA AT 19.4N 132.7E WEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 21.3N 126.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 151200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 1200 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 19.3N 133.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 953 HECTOPASCALS S MAX WNDS 43KMS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 161200 20.3N 128.3E AT 172300 22.7N 123.7E AND AT 181200 25.4N 120.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEAHTER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 151704 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 10.6N 115.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.07.2005 10.6N 115.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.07.2005 11.2N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 12.0N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 12.3N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 12.8N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 12.7N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 12.8N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 14.3N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 70.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2005 14.6N 70.4W STRONG 00UTC 16.07.2005 15.4N 73.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 16.5N 77.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 18.1N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 19.7N 84.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 21.2N 87.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 22.8N 90.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 24.3N 93.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 25.3N 95.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 26.0N 97.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 27.0N 100.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151704 ** WTNT35 KNHC 151749 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...EMILY WEAKENS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR BUT A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$