** WTIN20 DEMS 150600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-06-2003 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,SOUTH, CENTRAL AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 19.0N 135.0E 955HPA 45M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 30KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 127.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 24.0N 123.3E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 26.7N 120.7E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 *** WARNING 150600. WARNING VALID 160600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 955 HPA AT 19.1N 134.9E SOUTHWEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 20.2N 129.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.4N 124.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.0N 122.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 19.1N 134.9E GOOD MOVE W 18KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160600UTC 20.2N 129.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 170600UTC 22.4N 124.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 180600UTC 24.0N 122.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 134.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 134.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 19.2N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 028 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 028 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 108 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 109 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 111 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.9N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 118 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.9N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 038 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 124 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 129 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.4N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 133 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.8N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 134.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ ** WTNT25 KNHC 150840 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z FRI JUL 15 2005 AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO... AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 69.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 69.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 75.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 78.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 82.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 150841 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON JUL 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.8N 75.3W 48 1 X X 49 MUHA 230N 824W X X 5 8 13 17.2N 78.7W X 36 1 X 37 MUAN 219N 850W X X 5 17 22 18.5N 82.2W X 3 26 X 29 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 2 20 22 MDCB 176N 714W 5 X X X 5 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 10 10 MTPP 186N 724W 2 X X X 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 10 4 X X 14 MHNJ 165N 859W X X 2 9 11 MKJP 179N 768W 5 31 X X 36 MNPC 141N 834W X X 1 2 3 MKJS 185N 779W X 32 1 X 33 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W X 4 26 X 30 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 16 16 MUGM 200N 751W X 4 1 X 5 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 MUCM 214N 779W X 2 5 1 8 KEY WEST FL X X 1 4 5 MUCF 221N 805W X X 10 3 13 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X X 15 6 21 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 150847 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO... AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580 MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 150857 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005 EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 128 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0505Z DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. THE PRESSURE HAD ALSO DECREASED TO 952 MB...DOWN ANOTHER 4 MB IN JUST 2 HOURS. SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EMILY HAD AN 8 NMI DIAMETER EYE FOR NEARLY 6 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/17...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT PAST MOTION...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TAKING EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN 30-36 HOURS...AND THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS LESS THAN A 60 NMI SPREAD IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE SIMILARLY IN STRONG AGREEMENT 3 DAYS AGO...AND NOW EMILY IS 250 NMI SOUTH OF THOSE FORECAST POSITIONS! THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN PREMATURE IN WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... HEIGHTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...IF ANY AT ALL...FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB ACROSS FLORIDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 285 DEGREES AND REMAIN TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NEAR 29C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD EASILY RETAIN AN INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 3 TO CATEGORY 4 UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER THE YUCATAN. AFTER EMILY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...29-30C SSTS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 13.9N 69.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.8W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.8N 75.3W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 78.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 82.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN 96HR VT 19/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 105 KT...OVER SW GULFMEX 120HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 97.0W 105 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 150915 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY HURACAN CATEGORIA 4 SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE HACIA EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL Y JAMAICA... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA PUSO EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODO JAMAICA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UNA VIGILANIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA TODAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CARACAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE Y AL OESTE DE CARACAS. PORCIONES DE ESTE AVISO PROBABLEMENTE SEAN DESCONTINUADAS MAS TARDE DURANTE HOY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURAZAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.2 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS... 580 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE PORT AU PRINCE HAITI Y COMO A 580 MILLAS...930 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUNA FKUCTUACION EN SU FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 952 MB...28.11 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE JAMAICA CON POSIBILIDAD DE CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...13.9 NORTE... 69.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...952 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 150600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 0600 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO NINE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 170600 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 180600 TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 134.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 134.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 19.2N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 028 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 028 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 108 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 109 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 111 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.9N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 118 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 20.9N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 038 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 124 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 129 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.4N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 133 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.8N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 134.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 150900 *** WARNING 150900. WARNING VALID 160900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 950 HPA AT 19.1N 134.2E SOUTHWEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 20.7N 128.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 150900UTC 19.1N 134.2E GOOD MOVE W 17KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160900UTC 20.7N 128.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 170600UTC 22.4N 124.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 180600UTC 24.0N 122.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPH RPLL 150600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 0600 15 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 19.1N 134.9E MOVIMNNG WEST AT 09MPS TO PHENOMENAL SEA WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMTD CNTRL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS S MAX WNDS 40KMS 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITION AT 160600 21.0N 128.4E AT 170600 23.2N 124.8E AND AT 180600 25.3N 122.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEAHTER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN31 PGTW 150900 *** 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION* 150600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 134.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION* MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT* GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT* 19.1N 134.8E --- FORECASTS* 12 HRS* VALID AT* 151800Z --- 19.2N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT* GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 028 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 028 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 064 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 108 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 109 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 111 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT* 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS* VALID AT* 160600Z --- 19.9N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT* GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 118 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT* 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS* VALID AT* 161800Z --- 20.9N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT* GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 038 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 124 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT* 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK* 48 HRS* VALID AT* 170600Z --- 21.9N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT* GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 129 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT* 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS* VALID AT* 180600Z --- 23.4N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT* GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 068 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 133 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT* 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK* NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS* VALID AT* 190600Z --- 25.8N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT* GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT* 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS* VALID AT* 200600Z --- 27.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT* GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS* 150900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 134.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG)* LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM SOUTH- EAST OF OKINAWA* HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z* 152100Z* 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 151149 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VENEZUELA AND FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES... 555 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT EMILY MAY HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY SHORTLY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$