** WTNT35 KNHC 150000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO... AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES... 670 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB... 28.41 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 150014 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL PODEROSO HURACAN EMILY CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL CARIBE CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROCCIDENTAL DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE... CURAZAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.7 OESTE O COMO A 415 MILLAS... 670 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS FUE DE 962 MB...28.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS HOLANDESAS...Y 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...13.3 NORTE... 66.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 960 HPA AT 19.1N 136.9E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 23 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.4N 131.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.7N 126.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.3N 123.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 19.1N 136.9E FAIR MOVE W 23KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 20.4N 131.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 170000UTC 22.7N 126.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 180000UTC 24.3N 123.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 19.3N 136.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 30KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 131.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 22.0N 125.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 25.0N 122.5E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 150000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 150000UTC 19.2N 137.7E MOVEMENT W 23KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 160000UTC 20.9N 131.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 170000UTC 22.9N 126.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 72HR POSITION 180000UTC 24.6N 123.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.7N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 026 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 022 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 022 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 062 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 101 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 106 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 031 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 052 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 117 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.2N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 057 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 117 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 123 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.0N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 062 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 122 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.3N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 27.9N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 136.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.7N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 026 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 022 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 022 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 062 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 101 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 106 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 031 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 052 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 117 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.2N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 057 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 117 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 123 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.0N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 062 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 122 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 23.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 072 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 26.3N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 27.9N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 136.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 150246 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z FRI JUL 15 2005 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO... AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 67.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 150246 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO... AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 150300 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 150300 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KT. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT. NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL MOTION. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.6N 67.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.4N 70.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 77.1W 115 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.2N 80.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 95.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 150309 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL PODEROSO HURACAN EMILY COBRA MAS FUERZA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. A LAS 11 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL ESTE DE CARACAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CARACAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE Y AL OESTE DE CARACAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROCCIDENTAL DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURAZAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.5 OESTE O COMO A 375 MILLAS... 600 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO A 690 MILLAS...1110 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CUATRO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. INFORMES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY HA ESTADO BAJANDO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. BASADO EN ESOS INFORMES...LA PRESION MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 957 MB... 28.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...13.6 NORTE... 67.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...957 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 150309 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN JUL 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.7N 73.6W 48 1 X X 49 MUHA 230N 824W X X 2 14 16 17.0N 77.1W X 34 1 X 35 MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 20 21 18.2N 80.2W X 4 23 X 27 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 19 19 MDCB 176N 714W 17 1 X X 18 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 7 7 MTPP 186N 724W 7 5 X X 12 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W 7 19 X X 26 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 10 10 MKJP 179N 768W X 33 1 X 34 MNPC 141N 834W X X 1 4 5 MKJS 185N 779W X 23 7 X 30 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 11 11 MWCG 193N 814W X X 21 5 26 MARATHON FL X X 1 5 6 MUGM 200N 751W X 10 3 X 13 KEY WEST FL X X 1 7 8 MUCM 214N 779W X 1 12 1 14 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X X 9 7 16 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X X 6 15 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 150300 *** WARNING 150300. WARNING VALID 160300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 955 HPA AT 19.2N 135.8E SEA AROUND OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 20.8N 130.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 19.2N 135.8E GOOD MOVE W 19KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 20.8N 130.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 170000UTC 22.7N 126.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 180000UTC 24.3N 123.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 150538 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO... AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 560 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 150549 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST VIERNES 15 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...PELIGROSO HURACAN EMILY AUMENTA SU FUERZA Y ALCANZA CATEGORIA 4 SOBRE EL ESTE CENTRAL DEL MAR CARIBE... EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CARACAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE Y AL OESTE DE CARACAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE PUNTA SALINAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICA/HAITI...Y PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA/HAITI HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURAZAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.3 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS... 560 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y COMO A 635 MILLAS...1025 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA EN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL EN EMILY REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ERA DE 952 MB...28.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA ESPANOLA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO AMENAZANDO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...13.7 NORTE... 68.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...952 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 150555 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 15.3N 101.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.07.2005 15.1N 103.9W WEAK 00UTC 18.07.2005 15.2N 103.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 16.9N 105.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 17.2N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 18.0N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 19.4N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 66.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.07.2005 13.5N 66.6W MODERATE 12UTC 15.07.2005 14.7N 70.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.1N 73.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 17.2N 77.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 19.1N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 20.8N 84.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2005 22.4N 87.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 24.0N 90.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 25.4N 92.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 26.4N 94.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 26.9N 96.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 27.1N 97.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 27.7N 99.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 21.9N 48.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.07.2005 21.9N 48.4W WEAK 00UTC 17.07.2005 24.3N 50.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 26.9N 52.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 28.8N 54.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 31.3N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 32.7N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 33.2N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 32.3N 49.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 31.2N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2005 30.7N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150555