** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 19.5N 139.3E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 30KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 133.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 21.0N 128.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 23.0N 123.9E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 141800 *** WARNING 141800. WARNING VALID 151800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 960 HPA AT 19.5N 139.3E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 19.6N 133.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 21.5N 128.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.9N 124.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 141800UTC 19.5N 139.3E GOOD MOVE W 19KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 151800UTC 19.6N 133.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 161800UTC 21.5N 128.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 171800UTC 23.9N 124.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 142100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 138.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 138.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.5N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 022 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 062 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 102 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 107 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.0N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 031 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 056 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 112 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 113 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 103 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.8N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 061 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 121 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.8N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 066 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 127 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 122 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.8N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 041 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 132 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 132 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 132 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 26.2N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 27.8N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 138.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 142039 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z THU JUL 14 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 65.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 142039 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES... 720 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 142040 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN JUL 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.3N 72.1W 49 1 X X 50 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 13 14 16.5N 75.7W X 36 1 X 37 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 17 17 17.6N 79.0W X 4 24 1 29 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 15 15 SKPG 125N 717W 3 X X X 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 6 6 MDSD 185N 697W 2 X X X 2 MGPB 157N 886W X X X 2 2 MDCB 176N 714W 18 8 X X 26 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 10 10 MTPP 186N 724W 2 14 X X 16 MNPC 141N 834W X X X 6 6 MTCA 183N 738W 1 26 1 X 28 SKSP 126N 817W X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W X 24 9 X 33 MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 1 2 MKJS 185N 779W X 8 22 X 30 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 6 6 MWCG 193N 814W X X 14 11 25 MARATHON FL X X X 6 6 MUGM 200N 751W X 8 7 1 16 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X 12 3 15 KEY WEST FL X X X 8 8 MUCF 221N 805W X X 5 11 16 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X X 2 17 19 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 142050 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 LOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER. ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET IS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS EXCEED 300 NMI. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW EMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH AS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO ANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.3N 65.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W 115 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 90 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 142100 *** WARNING 142100. WARNING VALID 152100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 960 HPA AT 19.3N 137.9E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 26 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 19.8N 131.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 142100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 142100UTC 19.3N 137.9E GOOD MOVE W 26KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 152100UTC 19.8N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 161800UTC 21.5N 128.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 171800UTC 23.9N 124.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT =