** WTCA45 TJSJ 141204 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LAS CONDICIONES EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO MEJORANDO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA GRENADA. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN VICENTE Y LAS GRANADINAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA GRENADA HA SIDO DEGRADADO A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO... INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA UNA PARTE DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.9 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS... 135 KM... AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...12.4 NORTE... 62.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT65 KNHC 141219 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWER PRESSURE IN EMILY... AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980 MB...A DROP OF 11 MB SINCE THEIR LAST REPORT. AS YET THEY HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN EMILY'S WINDS...HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE FALL IS AN INDICATION THAT A STRENGTHENING TREND IS BEGINNING. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT65 KNHC 141236 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...CORRECTED PM TO AM IN TIME OF THE UPDATE ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWER PRESSURE IN EMILY... AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980 MB...A DROP OF 11 MB SINCE THEIR LAST REPORT. AS YET THEY HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN EMILY'S WINDS...HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE FALL IS AN INDICATION THAT A STRENGTHENING TREND IS BEGINNING. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 19.6N 141.4E FAIR MOVE W 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 19.3N 135.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 161200UTC 20.7N 129.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 171200UTC 22.4N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 19.6N 141.4E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 19.3N 135.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 20.7N 129.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.4N 124.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 141.5E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 19.4N 134.7E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 20.5N 128.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 22.5N 124.5E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.3N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 022 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 022 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 048 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 054 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 054 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 048 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 101 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 113 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 114 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 103 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.4N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 028 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 028 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 058 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 058 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 111 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 117 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 118 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 112 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.1N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 033 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 033 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 062 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 062 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 122 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 122 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.4N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 066 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 066 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 128 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 127 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 127 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.3N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 042 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 042 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 042 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 071 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 133 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 134 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.4N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 28.3N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 139.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 141431 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 141431 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z THU JUL 14 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 141434 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN JUL 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.5N 69.9W 50 2 X X 52 MUCM 214N 779W X X 2 11 13 15.6N 73.3W X 34 2 X 36 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 13 13 17.0N 76.8W X 2 25 X 27 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 17 17 SKPG 125N 717W 4 5 X X 9 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 11 11 TNCC 122N 690W 12 1 X X 13 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 14 14 SVMG 110N 640W 2 X X X 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 12 12 MDSD 185N 697W 1 6 X X 7 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 3 3 MDCB 176N 714W 1 24 1 X 26 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 6 6 MTPP 186N 724W X 12 7 X 19 MNPC 141N 834W X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W X 11 14 X 25 MDPP 198N 707W X 2 1 X 3 MKJP 179N 768W X 1 24 2 27 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 MKJS 185N 779W X X 18 7 25 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 21 22 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 MUGM 200N 751W X X 12 3 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 141447 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE FORTALECEEN EL ESTE DEL CARIBE...AHORA HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PUNTA SALINAS AL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. EL GOBIERNO DE HAITA HA EMITIDO UAN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE LA FRONTERA DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITA HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA GRANADA Y SUS DEPENDENCIAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO... INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.0 OESTE O COMO A 560 MILLAS... 905 KM... AL SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...12.7 NORTE... 64.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 141447 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE FORTALECEEN EL ESTE DEL CARIBE...AHORA HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PUNTA SALINAS AL OESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITI. EL GOBIERNO DE HAITA HA EMITIDO UAN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE LA FRONTERA DE REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y HAITA HASTA PORT-AU-PRINCE. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA GRANADA Y SUS DEPENDENCIAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO... INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.0 OESTE O COMO A 560 MILLAS... 905 KM... AL SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 976 MB...28.82 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...12.7 NORTE... 64.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...976 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 141459 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 EMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85 KT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE WAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR SOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 12.7N 64.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 66.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 69.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.3W 105 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 76.8W 110 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 83.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 19.5N 140.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 19.5N 134.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 19.5N 140.7E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 19.5N 134.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 161200UTC 20.7N 129.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 171200UTC 22.4N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 141729 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 13.8N 103.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.07.2005 13.8N 103.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.07.2005 15.0N 103.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2005 15.6N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 16.1N 107.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 17.2N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 18.2N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 19.5N 112.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 63.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.07.2005 12.2N 63.0W MODERATE 00UTC 15.07.2005 13.6N 65.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 14.7N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.2N 72.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 17.4N 75.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 19.2N 79.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 20.3N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 21.4N 86.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 22.7N 89.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 23.7N 91.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 24.5N 94.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 24.7N 96.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 25.0N 98.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 17.3N 48.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.07.2005 17.3N 48.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.6N 50.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 22.5N 51.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 24.9N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 27.2N 55.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 29.6N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 31.5N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 32.2N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 32.9N 53.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 33.2N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141729 ** WTNT35 KNHC 141741 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NEARLY CATEGORY THREE... ...AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CUMANA EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM PUNTA SALINAS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES... 795 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DECREASING. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 141752 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE ...CASI CATEGORIA TRES... A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE CUMANA HACIA EL ESTE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMANA HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO... INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE O COMO A 490 MILLAS... 795 KM... AL SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO Y ESTAN AHORA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN FUERTE DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTOY PIDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MB...28.70 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. LAS LLUVIAS EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTAN DISMINUYENDO REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...12.9 NORTE... 65.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$