** WTCA45 TJSJ 140617 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CERCA DE GRENADA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA GRENADA...SAN VINCENT...Y LAS GRENADINAS. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL GOBIERNO DE SANTA LUCIA HA DEGRADADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SANTA LUCIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SANTA LUCIA... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.5 OESTE O MUY CERCA DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY SE ESTARA ALEJANDO DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO EN UNAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO...PARTES DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...12.0 NORTE...61.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 140615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 14-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTJP21 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 20.4N 142.5E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 19.9N 135.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 21.0N 129.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.7N 124.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 20.4N 142.5E GOOD MOVE W 19KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 19.9N 135.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 160600UTC 21.0N 129.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 170600UTC 22.7N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 20.2N 142.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WSW 25KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 136.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.1N 130.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.1N 126.0E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 140832 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z THU JUL 14 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 140832 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...12.3 N... 62.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 140833 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN JUL 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.0N 68.0W 49 2 X X 51 MKJP 179N 768W X X 15 11 26 15.2N 71.5W X 34 2 X 36 MKJS 185N 779W X X 6 19 25 16.4N 75.0W X 2 25 1 28 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 22 22 SKPG 125N 717W X 10 2 X 12 MUGM 200N 751W X X 9 8 17 TNCC 122N 690W 11 6 X X 17 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 15 15 SVMG 110N 640W 4 X X X 4 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 15 15 TTPP 106N 614W 2 X X X 2 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 17 17 TTPT 112N 608W 7 X X X 7 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 11 11 TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 11 11 TVSV 131N 612W 97 X X X 97 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 TLPL 138N 610W 24 X X X 24 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 2 2 80400 157N 636W 5 X X X 5 MDPP 198N 707W X 2 4 1 7 TJPS 180N 666W 1 2 X X 3 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MDSD 185N 697W X 9 4 X 13 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MDCB 176N 714W X 19 8 X 27 PONCE PR 1 2 X X 3 MTPP 186N 724W X 5 16 X 21 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W X 2 22 1 25 KEY WEST FL X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 142.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 142.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 19.9N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 024 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 027 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 027 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 048 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 057 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 058 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 118 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 114 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.9N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 032 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 054 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 062 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 111 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 121 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 127 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 121 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.4N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 062 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 129 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 127 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.4N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 039 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 066 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 127 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 129 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 131 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 23.3N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 042 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 042 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 042 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 136 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 134 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 133 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 136 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 25.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 28.1N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 141.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 140845 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 OBSERVATIONS FROM GRENADA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE ISLAND AROUND 07Z...AT WHICH TIME THE OBSERVING SITE WAS REPORTING WESTERLY WINDS WITH A PRESSURE OF 993 MB. AFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE OBSERVED YESTERDAY EVENING...EMILY NOW APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AT A MORE MODERATE PACE. THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY CENTRAL PRESSURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF RECON FIXES BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 12Z. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRICAL WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE PATH OF EMILY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...STRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND...AS NOTED EARLIER...COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. BASED ON THE RECON FIXES AND THE GRENADA OBS...THE MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/16. MY TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EMILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER ON SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER. SOME MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFDL AND GFS...INDICATE AN EVEN FASTER MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140905 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST JUEVES 14 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY COMENZANDO A ALEJARSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA GRENADA. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO DEGRADADO A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SAN VICENTE Y LAS GRANADINAS. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...LOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO... INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE... CURACAO...Y ARUBA. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.3 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS... 70 KM... AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS... 45 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...12.3 NORTE... 62.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 19.7N 141.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 19.4N 134.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 19.7N 141.8E FAIR MOVE WSW 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 19.4N 134.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 160600UTC 21.0N 129.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 170600UTC 22.7N 124.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 141155 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CONDITIONS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IMPROVING... AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES IS DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRENADA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN $$