** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 20.7N 144.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR SW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 139.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 19.8N 133.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 21.0N 128.4E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140041 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY LLEGA A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVNETO...EL CENTRO ESTA PASANDO JUSTO AL NORTE DE TOBAGO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS...TRINIDAD ...TOBAGO...GRENADA...LAS GRENADINES...SAN VINCENT...SANTA LUCIA... Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA...INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA...Y PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMANA AL OESTE HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DEL AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.6 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...145 KM...AL NOR-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...135 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY PASARA A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y LLEGARA A LA PARTE SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NO SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE TORNE EN HURACAN ANTES DE SALIR DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...SIN EMBARGO...ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN VIENTOS HURACANADOS EN TERRENO ALTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ERA DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...11.5 NORTE...60.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...100 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 20.6N 144.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 20.1N 138.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.6N 132.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 22.4N 127.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 20.6N 144.6E GOOD MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 20.1N 138.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 160000UTC 20.6N 132.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 170000UTC 22.4N 127.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140106 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY LLEGA A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVNETO...EL CENTRO ESTA PASANDO JUSTO AL NORTE DE TOBAGO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS...TRINIDAD ...TOBAGO...GRENADA...LAS GRENADINES...SAN VINCENT...SANTA LUCIA... Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA...INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA...Y PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMANA AL OESTE HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DEL AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.6 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...145 KM...AL NOR-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD Y COMO A 85 MILLAS...135 KM...ESTE-SURESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY PASARA A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y LLEGARA A LA PARTE SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NO SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE TORNE EN HURACAN ANTES DE SALIR DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...SIN EMBARGO...ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN VIENTOS HURACANADOS EN TERRENO ALTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ERA DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...11.5 NORTE...60.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT. TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 140000UTC 20.6N 144.6E MOVEMENT WSW 14KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 150000UTC 20.1N 138.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 160000UTC 20.8N 132.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 170000UTC 22.8N 127.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT65 KNHC 140154 *** TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z. AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 144.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 144.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.0N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 024 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 023 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 024 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 024 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 041 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 057 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 058 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 118 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 126 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 114 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.6N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 029 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 029 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 029 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 049 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 062 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 127 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 121 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.8N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 036 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 058 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 112 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 124 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 126 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.3N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 039 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 063 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 121 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 127 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 129 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.1N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 042 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 069 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 132 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 25.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 27.7N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 143.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 140252 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z THU JUL 14 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA. AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 61.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 140258 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.4N 66.7W 49 1 X X 50 MTPP 186N 724W X X 15 3 18 14.5N 70.0W X 34 1 X 35 MTCA 183N 738W X X 14 7 21 15.5N 73.2W X 3 23 1 27 MKJP 179N 768W X X 3 19 22 SKPG 125N 717W X 9 6 X 15 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 20 21 TNCC 122N 690W 5 17 X X 22 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 15 15 SVMG 110N 640W 14 X X X 14 MUGM 200N 751W X X 2 13 15 TTPP 106N 614W 14 X X X 14 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 11 11 TTPT 112N 608W 99 X X X 99 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 8 8 TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 6 6 TBPB 131N 595W 48 X X X 48 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 TVSV 131N 612W 91 X X X 91 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 TLPL 138N 610W 41 X X X 41 MDPP 198N 707W X X 5 3 8 TFFF 146N 610W 3 X X X 3 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 1 2 80400 157N 636W 8 X X X 8 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W X 4 X X 4 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MDSD 185N 697W X 4 9 X 13 PONCE PR X 4 X X 4 MDCB 176N 714W X 5 17 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 140258 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD FROM CUMANA TO PUNTO FIJO ON THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA. AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY. DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 61.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 140312 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 EMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATER RECON FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED. THE PRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW POSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND NOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 11.9N 61.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 63.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 66.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 70.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 90.5W 90 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140341 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE TORNA EN HURACAN EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA GRENADA...SAN VINCENT...LAS GRENADINAS...Y SANTA LUCIA. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HACIA EL OESTE DESDE CUMANA HASTA PUNTO FIJO EN LA PENINSULA PARAGUANA. A LAS 11 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE BARBADOS NO DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA...TRINIDAD ...TOBAGO...Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA PUNTO FIJO...INCLUYENDO ISLA MARGARITA Y LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DE LA COSTA Y AL OESTE DE CUMANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.1 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS... 70 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY PASARA A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y LLEGARA A LA PARTE SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA HURACANA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS... 35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA MAS RECIENTE PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO...PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...11.9 NORTE...61.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 965 HPA AT 20.5N 143.5E SOUTH OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 20.1N 136.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 20.5N 143.5E GOOD MOVE WSW 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 20.1N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 160000UTC 20.6N 132.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 170000UTC 22.4N 127.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 140532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.07.2005 HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 60.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.07.2005 12.0N 60.5W MODERATE 12UTC 14.07.2005 12.9N 63.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 14.6N 66.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 15.7N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.9N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 18.5N 77.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 20.3N 81.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 21.4N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 23.0N 87.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 24.4N 89.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 25.4N 92.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 26.2N 94.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 26.5N 96.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED AT POSITION : 08.0N 39.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.07.2005 08.0N 39.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.07.2005 13.5N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 14.7N 44.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 16.1N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 19.9N 47.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 21.2N 49.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 22.7N 51.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 23.9N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 26.9N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 28.7N 57.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 30.2N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 30.5N 56.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 30.6N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140532 ** WTNT35 KNHC 140558 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY NEAR GRENADA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST OR VERY NEAR GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N... 61.5W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$