** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 21.3N 146.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 140.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.0N 134.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 21.6N 128.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 131833 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ..EMILY NO SE INTENSIFICA...AVISOS DE HURACAN REEMPLAZADOS A AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...TODOS LOS AVISOS DE HURACAN HAN SIDO REEMPLAZADOS POR AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TRINIDAD HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. A LAS 2 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE FRANCIA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA...LAS GRENADINAS...SAN VICENTE...SANTA LUCIA...Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMADA HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.0 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS... 210 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 150 MILLAS... 240 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIAEL OESTE O OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA EL CENTRO ESTARA PASANDO POR LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA PARECE POCO PROBABLE QUE EMILY ALCANZE LA CATEGORIA DE HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.3 NORTE... 59.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 131833 RRA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ..EMILY NO SE INTENSIFICA...AVISOS DE HURACAN REEMPLAZADOS A AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...TODOS LOS AVISOS DE HURACAN HAN SIDO REEMPLAZADOS POR AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TRINIDAD HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. A LAS 2 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE FRANCIA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA...LAS GRENADINAS...SAN VICENTE...SANTA LUCIA...Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMADA HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.0 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS... 210 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 150 MILLAS... 240 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIAEL OESTE O OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA EL CENTRO ESTARA PASANDO POR LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA PARECE POCO PROBABLE QUE EMILY ALCANZE LA CATEGORIA DE HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.3 NORTE... 59.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 131800UTC 21.3N 146.0E FAIR MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 141800UTC 20.0N 139.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 151800UTC 20.0N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161800UTC 21.5N 128.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 131800 *** WARNING 131800. WARNING VALID 141800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 21.3N 146.0E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 20.0N 139.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 20.0N 133.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 21.5N 128.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 131910 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD. ...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED... AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO... TRINIDAD...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 132028 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z WED JUL 13 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 59.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 59.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.8N 65.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 59.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 132032 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...STRONG TROPICAL STORM EMILY ABOUT TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... SOUTH OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 59.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 132032 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.8N 65.5W 50 1 X X 51 MDSD 185N 697W X X 8 3 11 13.8N 68.6W 1 33 X 1 35 MDCB 176N 714W X X 14 5 19 14.7N 71.7W X 4 22 1 27 MTPP 186N 724W X X 5 10 15 SKPG 125N 717W X 3 13 X 16 MTCA 183N 738W X X 3 15 18 TNCC 122N 690W X 20 2 X 22 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 21 21 SVMG 110N 640W 32 X X X 32 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 19 19 TTPP 106N 614W 34 X X X 34 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 10 10 TTPT 112N 608W 99 X X X 99 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 12 12 TGPY 120N 618W 91 X X X 91 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 7 7 TBPB 131N 595W 51 X X X 51 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 4 4 TVSV 131N 612W 77 X X X 77 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 TLPL 138N 610W 27 X X X 27 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 1 X 2 TFFF 146N 610W 2 X X X 2 MDPP 198N 707W X X 2 4 6 80400 157N 636W 7 1 X X 8 SAN JUAN PR X 1 1 X 2 TJPS 180N 666W X 2 2 X 4 PONCE PR X 2 2 X 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 132047 RRA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ..LA FUERTE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY PRESTA A LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ANTILLAS HOLANDESAS HA EMITIDO UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BONAIRE... CURAZAO...Y ARUBA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA...LAS GRENADINAS...SAN VICENTE...SANTA LUCIA...Y LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA...INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BONAIRE...CURACAO...Y ARUBA...Y PARA LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE CUMADA HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA DEL AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.8 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KM...AL SUR BARBADOS Y COMO A 135 MILLAS...220 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GRENADA. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...18 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NO SE ESPERA QUE EMILY LLEGUE A FUERZA DE HURACAN ANTES DE SALIR DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...SIN EMBARGO...ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN VIENTOS HURACANADOS SOBRE TERRENO ALTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...11.4 NORTE... 59.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 132100 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS VERY NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 62 KT AT 850 MB...AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/16. IT'S NOT QUITE WEST-NORTHWEST... BUT IT'S A START. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST REASONING...WITH EMILY EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AGAIN. A LOW-LEVEL SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES OVERTAKING EMILY APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CORE...AND MAY ALSO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AREAS AT SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION ABOVE SEA LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ON GRENADA...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 11.4N 59.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 11.9N 62.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 12.8N 65.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 71.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 78.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 84.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 89.5W 65 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 145.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 145.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.6N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 023 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 023 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 023 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 023 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 041 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 061 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 062 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 089 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 122 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 118 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.1N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 032 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 052 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 071 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 103 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 124 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 124 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.9N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 058 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 066 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 069 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 113 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 128 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.3N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 038 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 039 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 063 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 068 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 121 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 128 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 131 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.0N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 042 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 071 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 071 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 132 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 132 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 24.3N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 27.5N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 145.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 132100 *** WARNING 132100. WARNING VALID 142100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 970 HPA AT 21.1N 145.3E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 19.8N 138.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 132100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 132100UTC 21.1N 145.3E FAIR MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 140NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 142100UTC 19.8N 138.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 16KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 151800UTC 20.0N 133.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161800UTC 21.5N 128.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 132357 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY ARRIVES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 60.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$