** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA AT 21.7N 147.1E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 20.5N 141.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 20.0N 135.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 21.4N 129.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 21.7N 147.1E FAIR MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 20.5N 141.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 151200UTC 20.0N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 161200UTC 21.4N 129.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 21.7N 147.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WSW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 141.5E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 20.0N 135.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 21.0N 129.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.9N 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.1N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.9N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.9N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 21.3N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 23.5N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.8N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 146.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTNT25 KNHC 131437 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z WED JUL 13 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 58.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 131437 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.4N 64.0W 48 1 X X 49 TJPS 180N 666W X 2 5 2 9 13.3N 67.0W 1 32 1 X 34 MDSD 185N 697W X X 6 7 13 14.2N 70.0W X 4 22 1 27 MDCB 176N 714W X X 8 12 20 SKPG 125N 717W X X 11 5 16 MTPP 186N 724W X X 2 14 16 TNCC 122N 690W X 11 10 X 21 MTCA 183N 738W X X 1 18 19 SVMG 110N 640W 29 2 X X 31 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 19 19 TTPP 106N 614W 39 X X X 39 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 16 16 TTPT 112N 608W 70 X X X 70 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 5 5 TGPY 120N 618W 69 X X X 69 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 11 11 TBPB 131N 595W 57 X X X 57 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 4 4 TVSV 131N 612W 62 X X X 62 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 3 1 5 TLPL 138N 610W 36 X X X 36 MDPP 198N 707W X X 1 7 8 TFFF 146N 610W 9 X X X 9 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2 TDPR 153N 614W 4 X X X 4 ST CROIX VI X 2 2 X 4 80400 157N 636W 6 9 X X 15 ST THOMAS VI X 1 1 X 2 TISX 177N 648W X 2 2 X 4 SAN JUAN PR X 1 3 1 5 TIST 183N 650W X 1 1 X 2 PONCE PR X 2 5 2 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 131438 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR REMNANTS OF DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CONASAUGA RIVER...OOSTANAULA RIVER...OCONEE RIVER...AND THE FLINT RIVER OF GEORGIA. AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR 125 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEREFORE THE FLOODING THREAT WITH DENNIS HAS DIMINISHED. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT WENESDAY... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FISK 3.75 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.51 FARMINGTON 2.26 THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.34 CARBONDALE 2.12 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 1.15 BLOOMINGTON 0.81 INDIANAPOLIS 0.72 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.57 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 3.04 FORT KNOX 1.83 LOUISVILLE 1.23 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER 2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY DICKSON 1.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...39.1 NORTH...87.4 WEST... THE SYSTEM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DENNIS THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. FRIES $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 131447 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 131459 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS. EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 11.2N 58.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W 95 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 131502 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...CORRECTED OMISSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 131503 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z WED JUL 13 2005 ...CORRECTED OMISSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 58.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 131511 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ..EMILY CONTINUA AL OESTE CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PDESDE CUMANA HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA TRINIDAD. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MARTINIQUE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.1 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS... 270 KM...AL SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 225 MILLAS... 360 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GIRO EL OESTE O OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA EL CENTRO ESTARA PASANDO POR LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY TODAVIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE ALCANZAR FUERZA DE HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.2 NORTE... 58.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 131513 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ..EMILY CONTINUA AL OESTE CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PDESDE CUMANA HASTA CARACAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MAR AFUERA AL NORTE DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA TRINIDAD. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS Y PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MARTINIQUE. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL CARIBE CENTRAL DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.1 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS... 270 KM...AL SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 225 MILLAS... 360 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GIRO EL OESTE O OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA EL CENTRO ESTARA PASANDO POR LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO DEL SUR ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY TODAVIA TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE ALCANZAR FUERZA DE HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.2 NORTE... 58.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 131514 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...CORRECTED OMISSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 131516 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...CORRECTED OMISSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 21.6N 146.7E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 20.3N 140.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 21.6N 146.7E FAIR MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 20.3N 140.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 151200UTC 20.0N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 161200UTC 21.4N 129.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 131723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 56.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2005 11.2N 56.9W MODERATE 00UTC 14.07.2005 12.3N 59.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 13.8N 63.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 15.5N 67.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2005 16.6N 70.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 18.2N 74.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 20.4N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 22.7N 80.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 24.3N 83.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2005 25.5N 85.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 27.0N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 27.9N 88.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 28.7N 89.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 14.0N 45.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.07.2005 14.0N 45.0W WEAK 12UTC 15.07.2005 15.0N 47.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.0N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.0N 51.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 20.0N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 22.0N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 23.7N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 25.4N 58.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 27.0N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 28.0N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131723 ** WTNT35 KNHC 131756 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED... AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO... GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$