** WTCA45 TJSJ 130620 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE DIRIGE HACIA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... ...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA...BARBADOS...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA TRINIDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY FUE ESTIMADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.5 OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS... 505 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 390 MILLAS... 630 KM...AL ESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY ESTARA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR A EMILY ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...11.0 NORTE... 55.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 22.3N 148.3E 998HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 143.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.1N 138.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.4N 132.0E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 22.3N 148.3E FAIR MOVE SW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 20.8N 143.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 150600UTC 19.9N 136.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 160600UTC 20.9N 129.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 996 HPA AT 22.3N 148.3E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 20.8N 143.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 19.9N 136.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 20.9N 129.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 130601 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA,ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTIN20 DEMS 130656 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA,ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CDO PATTERN HAS FORMED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT34 KWNH 130829 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS MAINTAINS HIS CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CONASAUGA RIVER...OOSTANAULA RIVER...OCONEE RIVER...AND THE FLINT RIVER OF GEORGIA. AT 04 AM CDT...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR 120 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 10 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FISK 3.75 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.47 FARMINGTON 2.26 ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.34 CARBONDALE 2.11 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 1.15 BLOOMINGTON 0.75 INDIANAPOLIS 0.69 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.57 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.93 FORT KNOX 1.77 LOUISVILLE 1.17 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER 2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY DICKSON 1.30 REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...38.6 NORTH...86.8 WEST... MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 10 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 130831 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z WED JUL 13 2005 AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.3W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.3W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.6N 58.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.4N 61.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 64.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 67.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 130832 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 345 MILES... 550 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 130832 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.4N 61.7W 48 1 X X 49 TISX 177N 648W X 2 9 1 12 13.3N 64.8W 1 32 1 X 34 TIST 183N 650W X 1 6 1 8 14.3N 67.9W X 3 23 1 27 TJPS 180N 666W X X 11 3 14 SKPG 125N 717W X X 2 10 12 MDSD 185N 697W X X 3 13 16 TNCC 122N 690W X 1 11 3 15 MDCB 176N 714W X X 2 19 21 SVMG 110N 640W 3 16 X X 19 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 18 18 TTPP 106N 614W 22 1 X X 23 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 19 19 TTPT 112N 608W 42 X X X 42 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 13 13 TGPY 120N 618W 44 1 X X 45 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 9 9 TBPB 131N 595W 62 X X X 62 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 11 11 TVSV 131N 612W 51 1 X X 52 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 TLPL 138N 610W 44 1 X X 45 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 7 3 10 TFFF 146N 610W 27 4 X X 31 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 11 11 TDPR 153N 614W 11 10 X X 21 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 80400 157N 636W 1 22 1 1 25 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 TFFR 163N 615W 2 6 1 X 9 ST CROIX VI X 2 9 1 12 TAPA 171N 618W X 4 X X 4 ST THOMAS VI X 1 6 1 8 TKPK 173N 627W X 4 2 1 7 SAN JUAN PR X X 7 3 10 TNCM 181N 631W X 1 2 1 4 PONCE PR X X 11 3 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 130848 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND NOT VERY SYMMETRICAL. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN SPITE OF THE STORM'S ASYMMETRICAL APPEARENCE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE AREA. PERHAPS THE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF EMILY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF EMILY AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN 3-5 DAYS. EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/17. DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 11.1N 56.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 11.6N 58.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 12.4N 61.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 64.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.3N 67.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 74.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 148.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 148.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.6N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 20.7N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.1N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.0N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.9N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.9N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.9N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 147.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 130904 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE EMILY COMENZANDO A EXTENDERSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE BARBADOS A DEGRADADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE VENEZUELA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA TRINIDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.3 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS... 420 KM...AL SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 345 MILLAS... 550 KM...AL ESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO ESTARA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PROGRAMADO PARA INVESTIGAR A EMILY ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...11.1 NORTE... 56.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 130916 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS MAINTAINS HIS CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CONASAUGA RIVER...OOSTANAULA RIVER...OCONEE RIVER...AND THE FLINT RIVER OF GEORGIA. AT 04 AM CDT...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR 125 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 10 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FISK 3.75 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.47 FARMINGTON 2.26 ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.34 CARBONDALE 2.11 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 1.15 BLOOMINGTON 0.75 INDIANAPOLIS 0.69 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.57 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.93 FORT KNOX 1.77 LOUISVILLE 1.17 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER 2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY DICKSON 1.30 REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...39.1 NORTH...87.4 WEST... MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 10 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 22.0N 147.7E FAIR MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 20.5N 142.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 150600UTC 19.9N 136.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 160600UTC 20.9N 129.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 990 HPA AT 22.0N 147.7E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 20.5N 142.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 131140 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY SHORTLY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 131150 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE EMILY COMENZANDO A EXTENDERSE SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA TRINIDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BARBADOS. TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE DE VENEZUELA...DESDE PEDERNALES HACIA EL OESTE HASTA CUMANA... INCLUYENDO A ISLA MARGARITA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.2 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS... 320 KM...AL SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y COMO A 280 MILLAS... 450 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO ESTARA CERCA DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTARA EN EL CENTRO DE EMILY EN BREVE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE EMILY PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y PARTES DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN GENERAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO PONIENDO EN RIESGO VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...11.3 NORTE... 57.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$