** WTNT35 KNHC 122359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES... 675 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 122359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES... 675 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 149.4E 998HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.6N 145.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.4N 139.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.4N 133.0E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1000 HPA AT 22.9N 149.2E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 21.4N 145.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 19.9N 139.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.0N 133.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 22.9N 149.2E FAIR MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 21.4N 145.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 150000UTC 19.9N 139.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 160000UTC 20.0N 133.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 130000UTC 22.9N 149.2E MOVEMENT WSW 7KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140000UTC 21.8N 145.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 150000UTC 20.4N 139.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 160000UTC 20.3N 133.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTCA45 TJSJ 130231 *** TCPSP5 TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA AL OESTE HACIA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO.. AVISOS DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA...BARBADOS...GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMETA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA DE TOBAGO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICA SIGNIFICA QUE ESTAS CONDICIONES SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.7 OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...675 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EMILY ALCANZARA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO TARDE EN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE COVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISAS DE BARLOVENTO. UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR EMILY EN LA MANANA DEL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. EMILY DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...SON ANTICIPADAS CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO DE EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...11.0 NORTE... 53.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PRXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST . PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 149.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 149.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.2N 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.2N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.6N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.2N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.3N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.2N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.1N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 148.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 130251 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING WESTWARD... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 590 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 450 MILES... 720 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 54.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 130252 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z WED JUL 13 2005 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS... TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 130252 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 11.8N 60.3W 48 2 X X 50 TNCM 181N 631W X X 3 1 4 12.7N 63.6W 1 33 1 X 35 TISX 177N 648W X X 8 2 10 13.7N 66.9W X 3 23 1 27 TIST 183N 650W X X 5 3 8 SKPG 125N 717W X X 1 12 13 TJPS 180N 666W X X 6 7 13 TNCC 122N 690W X X 10 6 16 MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 14 15 SVMG 110N 640W X 19 3 X 22 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 19 19 TTPP 106N 614W 19 10 X X 29 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 16 16 TTPT 112N 608W 37 4 X X 41 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 16 16 TGPY 120N 618W 22 19 X X 41 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 9 9 TBPB 131N 595W 46 1 X X 47 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 5 5 TVSV 131N 612W 29 14 X X 43 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 7 7 TLPL 138N 610W 21 16 X X 37 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 4 6 10 TFFF 146N 610W 8 19 X X 27 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 10 10 TDPR 153N 614W 2 17 1 X 20 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 80400 157N 636W X 14 8 X 22 ST CROIX VI X X 8 2 10 TFFR 163N 615W X 7 2 X 9 ST THOMAS VI X X 5 3 8 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 2 X 5 SAN JUAN PR X X 4 6 10 TKPK 173N 627W X 2 4 1 7 PONCE PR X X 6 7 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 130300 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 15 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ISOLATED 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY POPLAR BLUFF 4.31 FISK 3.75 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.47 NEW MADRID 2.69 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY PORTAGEVILLE 2.63 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FARMINGTON 2.26 ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.34 CARBONDALE 2.11 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 1.15 INDIANAPOLIS 0.69 TERRE HAUTE 0.64 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.57 JONESBORO2.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.93 FORT KNOX 1.77 HENDERSON CITY 1.42 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER 2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...38.5 NORTH...87.2 WEST... MOVEMENT WAS A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. BANN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 130306 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17. THIS MOTION IS TAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS YEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL TRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE. 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. GIVEN THE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 10.7N 54.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 130328 *** TCPSP5 TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE ESTA ORGANIZANDO MEJOR Y CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE... ...NUEVOS AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD Y TOBAGO CAMBIO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TOBAGO A UN AVISO DE HURACAN...Y HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TRINIDAD. ...AVISOS DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA...BARBADOS...TOBAGO... GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMETA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA LA ISLA DE TRINIDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICA SIGNIFICA QUE ESTAS CONDICIONES SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 10.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.7 OESTE O COMO A 370 MILLAS...590 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS Y ALREDEOR DE 450 MILLAS...720 KM...AL ESTE DE TRINIDAD. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EMILY ALCANZARA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO TARDE EN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES PROBABLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE COVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MILIBARAS...29.44 PULGADAS. EMILY DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...SON ANTICIPADAS CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO DE EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...10.7 NORTE... 54.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1000 HPA AT 22.7N 148.7E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 20.5N 144.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 22.7N 148.7E FAIR MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHWEST 120NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 20.5N 144.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 150000UTC 19.9N 139.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 160000UTC 20.0N 133.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT34 KWNH 130420 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 15 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY POPLAR BLUFF 4.31 FISK 3.75 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.47 NEW MADRID 2.69 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY PORTAGEVILLE 2.63 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FARMINGTON 2.26 ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.34 CARBONDALE 2.11 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 1.15 INDIANAPOLIS 0.69 TERRE HAUTE 0.64 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.57 JONESBORO2.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.93 FORT KNOX 1.77 HENDERSON CITY 1.42 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER 2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...38.5 NORTH...87.2 WEST... MOVEMENT WAS A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. ...CORRECTED PRECIPITATION STATEMENT... BANN !%$$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 130540 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005 ...EMILY HEADED TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA... THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 130547 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.8N 31.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.07.2005 14.8N 31.0W WEAK 12UTC 13.07.2005 15.0N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 15.1N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 14.8N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 14.5N 46.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 14.7N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 15.0N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 15.9N 52.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 53.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.07.2005 11.1N 53.5W WEAK 12UTC 13.07.2005 11.1N 56.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 11.8N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 12.8N 63.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2005 14.5N 66.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 15.4N 70.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.7N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 18.1N 77.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2005 19.4N 81.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 20.3N 84.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 21.3N 87.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 22.2N 89.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.7N 92.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130547