** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 23.1N 150.0E 998HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 146.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.5N 140.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.1N 134.4E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1002 HPA AT 23.1N 149.9E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 21.9N 145.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 20.0N 140.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 19.5N 134.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 23.1N 149.9E FAIR MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 21.9N 145.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 141800UTC 20.0N 140.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 151800UTC 19.5N 134.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT45 KNHC 122029 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON... EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 11.1N 52.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 122032 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z TUE JUL 12 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS... GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 52.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 122036 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.1N 58.6W 51 1 X X 52 TNCM 181N 631W X X 6 4 10 13.0N 61.6W 1 33 X X 34 TISX 177N 648W X X 7 8 15 14.0N 64.8W X 3 23 1 27 TIST 183N 650W X X 4 9 13 SKPG 125N 717W X X X 7 7 TJPS 180N 666W X X 2 15 17 TNCC 122N 690W X X 2 9 11 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 17 17 SVMG 110N 640W X 5 7 X 12 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 19 19 TTPP 106N 614W 1 14 1 X 16 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 15 15 TTPT 112N 608W 6 20 X X 26 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 13 13 TGPY 120N 618W 1 27 X 1 29 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 3 3 TBPB 131N 595W 34 10 X X 44 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 5 5 TVSV 131N 612W 2 34 X X 36 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 2 12 14 TLPL 138N 610W 2 33 X 1 36 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 12 12 TFFF 146N 610W 1 29 1 X 31 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 4 4 TDPR 153N 614W X 21 5 X 26 ST CROIX VI X X 7 8 15 80400 157N 636W X 4 20 1 25 ST THOMAS VI X X 4 9 13 TFFR 163N 615W X 9 9 X 18 SAN JUAN PR X X 2 12 14 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 9 1 13 PONCE PR X X 2 15 17 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 11 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 122036 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED AS EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS... GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 52.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 122052 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST...OR 20 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO JUST OVER 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ISOLATED 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED... ...MISSOURI... THOMPSON LANDING 5.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY WILLIAMSVILLE 3.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY POPLAR BLUFF 3.76 FISK 3.75 CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.36 NEW MADRID 2.69 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY PORTAGEVILLE 2.63 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FARMINGTON 2.19 ...ILLINOIS... GRAND CHAIN 3.65 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY CHESTER 3.00 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY LEBANON 2.94 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY STEELVILLE 2.35 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BELLEVILLE 2.25 CARBONDALE 1.96 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 0.96 INDIANAPOLIS 0.66 TERRE HAUTE 0.64 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY SAINT FRANCIS 2.58 THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.56 JONESBORO2.16 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.74 FORT KNOX 1.62 HENDERSON CITY 1.36 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...38.2 NORTH...88.4 WEST... MOVEMENT WAS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. FRIES $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 122104 *** TCPSP5 TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...AVISOS DE HURACAN EMITIDOS A MEDIDA QUE EMILY CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE.. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...AVISOS DE HURACAN HAN SIDO EMITIDAS PARA LAS SIGIENTES LOCALIDADES PR SUS RESPECITIVOS GOBIERNOS...BARBADOS...GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA. A LAS 5 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD A EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMETA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE TOBAGO. A LAS 5 PM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE FRANCIA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICA PARA MARTINIQUE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICA SIGNIFICA QUE ESTAS CONDICIONES SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.8 OESTE O COMO A 475 MILLAS...765 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EMILY ALCANZARA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO TARDE EN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE COVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISAS DE BARLOVENTO. UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO ESTA PAUTADO A INVESTIGAR EMILY EN LA MANANA DEL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. EMILY DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...SON ANTICIPADAS CERCA Y AL NORTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DEL CENTRO DE EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...11.1 NORTE... 52.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- NEAR 23.2N7 149.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N7 149.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 22.7N1 148.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 21.8N1 145.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 21.0N3 143.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 20.4N6 140.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 20.2N4 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 21.7N0 129.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 23.5N0 126.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.1N6 149.3E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUTFLOW. MAXI- MUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7, 130900Z3, 131500Z0 AND 132100Z7.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1002 HPA AT 23.0N 149.5E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 21.3N 144.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 23.0N 149.5E FAIR MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 21.3N 144.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 141800UTC 20.0N 140.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 151800UTC 19.5N 134.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 122359 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES... 675 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$