** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1004 HPA AT 23.3N 150.6E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.4N 147.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 20.7N 142.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 20.2N 135.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 23.3N 150.6E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 22.4N 147.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 141200UTC 20.7N 142.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 151200UTC 20.2N 135.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 23.2N 150.4E 1000HPA 20M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.0N 146.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.5N 141.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.2N 135.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTNT25 KNHC 121433 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z TUE JUL 12 2005 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 50.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- NEAR 23.4N9 150.3E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N9 150.3E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.1N6 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.4N8 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 21.5N8 143.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 20.7N9 140.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 20.3N5 134.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 21.7N0 129.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 23.3N8 126.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.3N8 149.9E3. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6, 130300Z7, 130900Z3 AND 131500Z0.// ** WTNT34 KWNH 121437 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COOSAWATTEE RIVER...FLINT RIVER...OCONEE RIVER...CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER AND THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK OF GEORGIA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...AND MISSOURI. AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST...OR 15 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ISOLATED 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED... ...MISSOURI... CAPE GIRARDEAU 3.22 FISK 2.78 NEW MADRID 2.69 POPLAR BLUFF 2.68 PORTAGEVILLE 2.63 FARMINGTON 2.00 ...ILLINOIS... CHESTER 3.00 LEBANON 2.91 STEELVILLE 2.35 BELLEVILLE 2.22 CARBONDALE 1.93 MOUNT VERNON 1.64 ...INDIANA... INDIANAPOLIS 0.66 EVANSVILLE 0.60 TERR HAUTE 0.57 ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.38 JONESBORO2.15 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 10.66 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 2.10 FORT KNOX 1.55 HENDERSON CITY 0.71 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...38.2 NORTH...88.5 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB OR 29.71 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. FRIES $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 121443 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 121444 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 11.9N 57.0W 49 1 X X 50 TKPK 173N 627W X X 11 5 16 12.8N 60.2W 1 33 1 X 35 TNCM 181N 631W X X 5 8 13 14.0N 63.5W X 2 24 1 27 TISX 177N 648W X X 4 13 17 SKPG 125N 717W X X X 4 4 TIST 183N 650W X X 2 13 15 TNCC 122N 690W X X X 8 8 TJPS 180N 666W X X 1 17 18 SVMG 110N 640W X 1 8 1 10 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 16 16 TTPP 106N 614W X 9 4 X 13 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 16 16 TTPT 112N 608W X 19 2 1 22 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 12 12 TGPY 120N 618W X 17 8 X 25 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 8 8 TBPB 131N 595W 3 34 1 X 38 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 TVSV 131N 612W X 26 6 X 32 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 1 15 16 TLPL 138N 610W X 26 7 X 33 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 10 10 TFFF 146N 610W X 20 10 X 30 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 TDPR 153N 614W X 10 16 1 27 ST CROIX VI X X 4 13 17 80400 157N 636W X X 21 3 24 ST THOMAS VI X X 2 13 15 TFFR 163N 615W X 3 16 1 20 SAN JUAN PR X X 1 15 16 TAPA 171N 618W X 1 12 2 15 PONCE PR X X 1 17 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 121458 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 23.2N 150.3E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 22.3N 146.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 141200UTC 20.7N 142.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 151200UTC 20.2N 135.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 121645 *** TCPSP5 TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY INTENSIFICANDOSE...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN EMITIDOS EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN HAN SIDO EMITIDAS PARA BARBADOS...GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA...POR LOS GOBIERNOS APROPIADOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXMIAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 AM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD A EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMETA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE TOBAGO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL ESTE DEL CARIBE DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.3 OESTE O COMO A 575 MILLAS...925 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE COVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.0 NORTE... 51.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 121646 *** TCPSP5 TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY INTENSIFICANDOSE...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN EMITIDOS EN LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACAN HAN SIDO EMITIDAS PARA BARBADOS...GRENADA...LAS GRANADINAS...SAN VICENTE...Y SANTA LUCIA...POR LOS GOBIERNOS APROPIADOS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE LAS PROXMIAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 AM AST...EL GOBIERNO DE TRINIDAD A EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMETA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE TOBAGO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL ESTE DEL CARIBE DEBEN DE SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.3 OESTE O COMO A 575 MILLAS...925 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BARBADOS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ...Y EMILY TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE COVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...11.0 NORTE... 51.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 121710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 49.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2005 11.4N 49.8W WEAK 00UTC 13.07.2005 12.0N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 12.2N 56.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 13.1N 59.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 14.3N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2005 15.7N 67.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2005 16.7N 70.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 18.1N 74.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.8N 76.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 21.4N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.07.2005 22.4N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 23.8N 85.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2005 24.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 15.2N 33.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2005 15.2N 33.0W WEAK 00UTC 14.07.2005 15.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 15.3N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 15.2N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2005 16.0N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 16.0N 50.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121710 ** WTNT35 KNHC 121743 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$