** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1004 HPA AT 23.5N 151.0E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 22.8N 147.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 21.5N 142.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.0N 136.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 23.5N 151.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 22.8N 147.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 140600UTC 21.5N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 150600UTC 21.0N 136.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 23.4N 150.9E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 148.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 21.7N 143.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 21.1N 136.6E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-SOUTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT25 KNHC 120830 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z TUE JUL 12 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 48.6W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 48.6W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.9N 53.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.6N 56.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.4N 59.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 120830 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 ...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...1360 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 48.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 120831 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS PERCEIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY PROMINENT AT THIS TIME. EMILY'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD STRENGTHEN AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES...BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE STORM IS NOW MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...280 AT 13 KT. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. THIS SHIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE FORMATION OF A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK. IT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 11.4N 48.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 12.0N 50.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 12.9N 53.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 13.6N 56.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.4N 59.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 66.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 71.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 77.0W 85 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 120831 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.9N 53.5W 52 X X X 52 TKPK 173N 627W X X 3 19 22 13.6N 56.4W 1 32 1 X 34 TNCM 181N 631W X X 1 19 20 14.4N 59.6W X 4 22 1 27 TISX 177N 648W X X X 21 21 SVMG 110N 640W X X X 3 3 TIST 183N 650W X X X 20 20 TTPP 106N 614W X X 2 1 3 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 20 20 TTPT 112N 608W X X 4 3 7 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 10 10 TGPY 120N 618W X X 6 4 10 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 4 4 TBPB 131N 595W X 5 17 X 22 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 2 2 TVSV 131N 612W X X 14 4 18 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 19 19 TLPL 138N 610W X X 18 4 22 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 5 5 TFFF 146N 610W X X 20 4 24 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2 TDPR 153N 614W X X 17 8 25 ST CROIX VI X X X 21 21 80400 157N 636W X X 3 20 23 ST THOMAS VI X X X 20 20 TFFR 163N 615W X X 12 12 24 SAN JUAN PR X X X 19 19 TAPA 171N 618W X X 7 15 22 PONCE PR X X X 20 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 120844 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 12 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.6 OESTE O COMO A 845 MILLAS...1360 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...11.4 NORTE... 48.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 120853 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 32 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT TUES JUL 12 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS AMBLES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COOSAWATTEE RIVER...FLINT RIVER...OCONEE RIVER...CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER AND THE KINCHAFOONEE CREEK OF GEORGIA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...MISSOURI...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. AT 4 AM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR 30 MILES NORTH WEST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DOTHAN 3.07 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BIRMINGHAM 2.14 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MUSCLE SHOALS ARPT1.49 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JONESBORO2.10 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ST. FRANCIS 1.88 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY WEST MEMPHIS1.29 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY EGLIN AFB 4.91 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY HOLLYWOOD 4.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY FORT MEYERS 4.54 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PUNTA GORDA 4.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SARASOTA 3.59 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY CRESTVIEW 3.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MIAMI 2.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ORLANDO 1.48 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 6.76 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MONTEZUMA 6.62 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ORCHARD HILL 5.93 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY LOVEJOY 5.92 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ALBANY 4.17 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY VALDOSTA 3.91 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...SOUTH CAROLINA... WALHALLA0.88 THROUGH 2 AM CDT TUESDAY SENECA0.79 THROUGH 2 AM CDT TUESDAY STARR0.55 THROUGH 2 AM CDT TUESDAY ...KENTUCKY... MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 6.76 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PADUCAH 1.55 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY HENDERSON CITY 0.53 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... BLYTHEVILLE2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY SELMER2.14 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MURFREESBORO 1.43 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DYERSBURG 1.44 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MEMPHIS 1.36 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY NASHVILLE 0.78 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSOURI... POPLAR BLUFF/BLACK RIVER 1.74 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 2.48 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY POPLAR BLUFF 0.92 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY FARMINGTON 1.18 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...ILLINOIS... CARBONDALE 1.59 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MOUNT VERNON 0.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 0.35 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...37.5 NORTH...89.0 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 10 AM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- NEAR 23.5N0 151.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N0 151.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 23.5N0 149.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 23.0N5 147.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 22.2N6 145.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 21.4N7 142.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 20.7N9 136.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 21.3N6 131.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 22.6N0 128.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.5N0 150.7E3. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER STORM STRENGTH REMAINS UNCHANGED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9, 122100Z6, 130300Z7 AND 130900Z3.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 23.4N 150.8E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 22.1N 146.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 140600UTC 21.5N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 150600UTC 21.0N 136.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT =