** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23.2N 151.8E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 23.0N 149.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 22.0N 145.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.5N 139.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 23.2N 151.8E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 23.0N 149.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 140000UTC 22.0N 145.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 150000UTC 21.5N 139.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST -SOUTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 120000UTC 23.1N 151.6E MOVEMENT WNW 3KT PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130000UTC 23.2N 148.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 140000UTC 22.7N 145.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 150000UTC 21.8N 139.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT35 KNHC 120233 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005 ...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 120234 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z TUE JUL 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 47.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 47.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W...NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W...NEAR EASTERN CUBA MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 120235 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 12.6N 51.5W 49 1 X X 50 TAPA 171N 618W X X 2 20 22 13.5N 54.7W 1 33 1 X 35 TKPK 173N 627W X X 1 20 21 14.5N 58.0W X 3 23 1 27 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 20 20 TTPP 106N 614W X X X 2 2 TISX 177N 648W X X X 19 19 TTPT 112N 608W X X 2 2 4 TIST 183N 650W X X X 18 18 TGPY 120N 618W X X 2 5 7 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 15 15 TBPB 131N 595W X X 14 4 18 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 4 4 TVSV 131N 612W X X 6 8 14 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 16 16 TLPL 138N 610W X X 8 10 18 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2 TFFF 146N 610W X X 9 12 21 ST CROIX VI X X X 19 19 TDPR 153N 614W X X 6 16 22 ST THOMAS VI X X X 18 18 80400 157N 636W X X X 19 19 SAN JUAN PR X X X 16 16 TFFR 163N 615W X X 4 19 23 PONCE PR X X X 15 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 120239 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER ...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR PUERTO RICO 120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/111351ZJUL05// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- NEAR 23.2N7 151.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N7 151.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 23.5N0 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.2N7 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.4N8 146.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 21.6N9 144.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 20.9N1 137.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 21.0N3 131.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 22.2N6 128.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.3N8 151.5E2. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2, 121500Z9, 122100Z6 AND 130300Z7.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 120245 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST LUNES 11 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE CONVIERTE EN LA QUINTA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 11.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.0 OESTE O COMO A 1000 MILLAS...1610 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CON UN LEVE INCREMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES ESPERADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDE HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...11.3 NORTE...47.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 120301 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 31 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN...FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...MISSOURI...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DOTHAN 3.07 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BIRMINGHAM 2.14 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ST. FRANCIS 1.88 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY EGLIN AFB 4.91 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY HOLLYWOOD 4.83 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY FORT MEYERS 4.54 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY PUNTA GORDA 4.39 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY SARASOTA 3.59 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY CRESTVIEW 3.39 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY MIAMI 2.39 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY ORLANDO 1.48 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 6.76 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY MONTEZUMA 6.62 THROUGH 8 AM EDT MONDAY ORCHARD HILL 5.93 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY LOVEJOY 5.92 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY ALBANY 4.17 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY VALDOSTA 3.91 THROUGH 1 PM EDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 1.55 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY HENDERSON CITY 0.53 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... DUNLAP 1.74 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MURFREESBORO 1.43 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DYERSBURG 1.44 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MEMPHIS 1.36 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY NASHVILLE 0.78 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSOURI... POPLAR BLUFF/BLACK RIVER 1.74 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 2.48 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY POPLAR BLUFF 0.92 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY FARMINGTON 1.18 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...ILLINOIS... CARBONDALE 1.59 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MOUNT VERNON 0.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 0.35 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...36.8 NORTH...88.9 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 AM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. BANN/TERRY $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 120306 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 CORRECTED 96- AND 120-HOUR COMMENTS IN TABLE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER ...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA 120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN CUBA $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 120317 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 31 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN...FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...KENTUCKY...MISSOURI...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST BLOCTON 5.28 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SAMANTHA 4.34 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 4.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY LIVINGSTON 4.21 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MOBILE 3.71 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TUSCALOOSA 3.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DOTHAN 3.07 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BIRMINGHAM 2.14 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY RIVERFRONT 3.24 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BENTON 2.96 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY BLYTHEVILLE 2.30 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ST. FRANCIS 1.88 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TALLAHASSEE 6.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY KEY WEST 5.81 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRY 5.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PERRINE 5.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY EGLIN AFB 4.91 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY HOLLYWOOD 4.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY FORT MEYERS 4.54 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PUNTA GORDA 4.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY SARASOTA 3.59 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY CRESTVIEW 3.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY MIAMI 2.39 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ORLANDO 1.48 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY WEST ATLANTA 9.10 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY BUENA VISTA 8.18 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MOLENA 7.83 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY AMERICUS 7.84 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY THOMASVILLE 6.76 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY MONTEZUMA 6.62 THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY ORCHARD HILL 5.93 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY LOVEJOY 5.92 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ALBANY 4.17 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY VALDOSTA 3.91 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 1.55 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY HENDERSON CITY 0.53 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY COLUMBUS 3.16 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY TUPELO 1.86 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...TENNESSEE... DUNLAP 1.74 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY CHATTANOOGA 1.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY JACKSON 1.70 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MURFREESBORO 1.43 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY DYERSBURG 1.44 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MEMPHIS 1.36 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY NASHVILLE 0.78 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY ...MISSOURI... POPLAR BLUFF/BLACK RIVER 1.74 THROUGH 1 PM CDT MONDAY CAPE GIRARDEAU 2.48 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY POPLAR BLUFF 0.92 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY FARMINGTON 1.18 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...ILLINOIS... CARBONDALE 1.59 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY MOUNT VERNON 0.83 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY ...INDIANA... EVANSVILLE 0.35 THROUGH 7 PM CDT MONDAY TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...36.8 NORTH...88.9 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB OR 29.68 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 AM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. BANN/TERRY $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 23.2N 151.8E 1000HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 149.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.0N 144.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 21.2N 138.4E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 23.3N 151.4E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 22.8N 148.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 140000UTC 22.0N 145.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 150000UTC 21.5N 139.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 120530 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 12-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT80 EGRR 120539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 46.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.07.2005 10.6N 46.0W WEAK 12UTC 12.07.2005 11.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 12.1N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 13.6N 54.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 14.5N 57.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 15.5N 60.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2005 15.9N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2005 17.7N 67.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 18.0N 70.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.5N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 20.3N 76.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 21.0N 79.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2005 21.8N 82.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120539