** WTPQ20 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 22.7N 152.1E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 22.9N 149.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT34 KWNH 111858 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 29 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 ...DENNIS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THREAT FOR FLOODING REMAINS... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...ARKANSAS...GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ILLINOIS... INDIANA...KENTUCKY...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI...AND TENNESSEE. AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUPELO...MISSISSIPPI. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 WEST BLOCTON 5.28 SAMANTHA 4.34 THOMASVILLE 4.52 LIVINGSTON 4.21 MOBILE 3.71 TUSCALOOSA 3.71 DOTHAN 3.07 BIRMINGHAM 2.12 ...ARKANSAS... RIVERFRONT 0.59 PARKIN 0.51 BLYTHEVILLE 0.51 WEST MEMPHIS 0.43 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 TALLAHASSEE 6.64 KEY WEST 5.81 PERRY 5.83 PERRINE 5.29 HOLLYWOOD 4.83 WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 SARASOTA 3.59 MIAMI 2.39 ORLANDO 1.48 FORT MEYERS 4.54 PUNTA GORDA 4.39 EGLIN AFB 4.90 CRESTVIEW 3.39 ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 WEST ATLANTA 9.10 BUENA VISTA 8.18 MOLENA 7.83 AMERICUS 7.84 POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 MONTEZUMA 6.62 PEACHTREE CITY 7.78 ORCHARD HILL 5.93 LOVEJOY 5.92 ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 5.38 THOMASVILLE 6.76 ALBANY 4.17 VALDOSTA 3.91 ...KENTUCKY... ALVATON 0.42 BOWLING GREEN 0.39 CADIZ 0.39 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 COLUMBUS 3.07 TUPELO 1.67 GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 ...TENNESSEE... DE SOTO 1.65 DUNLAP 1.55 CHATTANOOGA 1.46 MURFREESBORO 1.09 MEMPHIS 0.57 NASHVILLE 0.49 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...34.5 NORTH...89.0 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB OR 29.44 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK/CLARK $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 112038 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 112038 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z MON JUL 11 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 46.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 46.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.4N 53.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.2N 56.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 112038 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.6N 46.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.9N 47.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 11.6N 50.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 12.4N 53.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 13.2N 56.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 63.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 74.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 112039 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU JUL 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 11.6N 50.3W 47 1 X X 48 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 22 22 12.4N 53.2W 2 31 1 X 34 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 20 20 13.2N 56.5W X 3 23 1 27 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 19 19 SVMG 110N 640W X X X 3 3 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 16 16 TTPP 106N 614W X X X 6 6 TISX 177N 648W X X X 15 15 TTPT 112N 608W X X 1 9 10 TIST 183N 650W X X X 12 12 TGPY 120N 618W X X X 13 13 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 9 9 TBPB 131N 595W X X 8 13 21 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 9 9 TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 17 18 ST CROIX VI X X X 15 15 TLPL 138N 610W X X 2 19 21 ST THOMAS VI X X X 12 12 TFFF 146N 610W X X 1 22 23 SAN JUAN PR X X X 9 9 TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 22 23 PONCE PR X X X 9 9 80400 157N 636W X X X 20 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 112045 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 30 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN...FLOOD THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...ALABAMA...ILLINOIS...INDIANA...KENTUCKY...MISSOURI... NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST...OR NEAR DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 WEST BLOCTON 5.28 SAMANTHA 4.34 THOMASVILLE 4.52 LIVINGSTON 4.21 MOBILE 3.71 TUSCALOOSA 3.72 DOTHAN 3.07 BIRMINGHAM 2.14 ...ARKANSAS... PARKIN 3.97 RIVERFRONT 3.24 BENTON 2.96 BLYTHEVILLE 2.06 ST. FRANCIS 1.88 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 TALLAHASSEE 6.64 KEY WEST 5.81 PERRY 5.83 PERRINE 5.29 EGLIN AFB 4.91 HOLLYWOOD 4.83 FORT MEYERS 4.54 PUNTA GORDA 4.39 WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 SARASOTA 3.59 CRESTVIEW 3.39 MIAMI 2.39 ORLANDO 1.48 ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 WEST ATLANTA 9.10 BUENA VISTA 8.18 PEACHTREE CITY 7.94 MOLENA 7.83 AMERICUS 7.84 POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 THOMASVILLE 6.76 ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 6.72 MONTEZUMA 6.62 ORCHARD HILL 5.93 LOVEJOY 5.92 ALBANY 4.17 VALDOSTA 3.91 ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 1.26 BOWLING GREEN 0.68 ALVATON 0.66 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 COLUMBUS 3.16 TUPELO 1.86 GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 ...TENNESSEE... DUNLAP 1.74 CHATTANOOGA 1.55 JACKSON 1.46 MURFREESBORO 1.43 DYERSBURG 1.20 MEMPHIS 1.17 NASHVILLE 0.78 ...MISSOURI... POPLAR BLUFF/BLACK RIVER 1.74 CAPE GIRARDEAU 1.40 POPLAR BLUFF 0.92 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...36.0 NORTH...89.4 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB OR 29.56 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. LADER $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 112054 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 11 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION PROBREMENTE ORGANIZADA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO FUE RELOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 10.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.0 OESTE O COMO ALREDEDOR DE 1030 MILLAS...1655 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CON UN INCREMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...10.6 NORTE...46.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANCKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/111351ZJUL05// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- NEAR 22.7N1 152.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N1 152.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 22.9N3 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 22.9N3 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 22.6N0 148.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 21.9N2 146.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 20.9N1 140.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 20.6N8 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 21.0N3 129.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.7N1 152.2E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W HAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. STEERING INFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 05W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6, 120900Z2, 121500Z9 AND 122100Z6.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 22.7N 152.0E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 22.6N 149.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT =