** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 22.7N 152.3E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 23.4N 149.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/111351ZJUL05// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 22.9N3 152.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N3 152.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 23.5N0 152.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 23.6N1 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.3N8 149.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.6N0 147.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 21.3N6 143.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N6 152.5E3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110021Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 110030) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5, 120300Z6, 120900Z2 AND 121500Z9.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 111441 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED... WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SUGGESTED THAT THIS SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MERELY BE A SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED BROADER LOW. IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT IS THE BROADER LOW THAT MAY ULTIMATELY PREVAIL. RATHER THAN JERK THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST TO FOLLOW THE SWIRL...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THERE IS PRESENTLY SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH REGARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THIS...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...WHICH DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT IS PERHAPS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.3N 44.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 111443 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z MON JUL 11 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 111445 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 10.8N 48.9W 47 X X X 47 TFFR 163N 615W X X 1 15 16 11.5N 52.0W 4 30 X X 34 TAPA 171N 618W X X 1 14 15 12.2N 55.2W X 10 16 X 26 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 14 14 SVMG 110N 640W X X X 7 7 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 12 12 TTPP 106N 614W X X X 11 11 TISX 177N 648W X X X 10 10 TTPT 112N 608W X X 1 13 14 TIST 183N 650W X X X 9 9 TGPY 120N 618W X X X 13 13 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 6 6 TBPB 131N 595W X X 7 12 19 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 7 7 TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 15 16 ST CROIX VI X X X 10 10 TLPL 138N 610W X X 2 15 17 ST THOMAS VI X X X 9 9 TFFF 146N 610W X X 2 15 17 SAN JUAN PR X X X 7 7 TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 16 17 PONCE PR X X X 6 6 80400 157N 636W X X X 13 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 111449 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KWNH 111504 *** TCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 28 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005 ...DENNIS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THREAT FOR FLOODING REMAINS... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...ARKANSAS...GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ILLINOIS... INDIANA...KENTUCKY...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TENNESSEE. WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI...AND TENNESSEE. AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUPELO...MISSISSIPPI. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT... ...ALABAMA... CAMDEN 6.27 WEST BLOCTON 5.28 SAMANTHA 4.34 THOMASVILLE 4.52 LIVINGSTON 4.21 MOBILE 3.71 TUSCALOOSA 3.71 DOTHAN 3.07 BIRMINGHAM 2.12 ...ARKANSAS... RIVERFRONT 0.59 PARKIN 0.51 BLYTHEVILLE 0.51 WEST MEMPHIS 0.43 ...FLORIDA... BRISTOL 4S 8.30 TALLAHASSEE 6.64 KEY WEST 5.81 PERRY 5.83 PERRINE 5.29 HOLLYWOOD 4.83 WEST PALM BEACH 3.31 TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN WFO 3.53 SARASOTA 3.59 MIAMI 2.39 ORLANDO 1.48 FORT MEYERS 4.54 PUNTA GORDA 4.39 EGLIN AFB 4.90 CRESTVIEW 3.39 ...GEORGIA... AUSTELL 9.57 WEST ATLANTA 9.10 BUENA VISTA 8.18 MOLENA 7.83 AMERICUS 7.84 POWDER SPRINGS 7.64 MONTEZUMA 6.62 PEACHTREE CITY 7.78 ORCHARD HILL 5.93 LOVEJOY 5.92 ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 5.38 THOMASVILLE 6.76 ALBANY 4.17 VALDOSTA 3.91 ...KENTUCKY... ALVATON 0.42 BOWLING GREEN 0.39 CADIZ 0.39 ...MISSISSIPPI... MERIDIAN 3.18 COLUMBUS 3.07 TUPELO 1.67 GULFPORT-BILOXI 0.48 ...TENNESSEE... DE SOTO 1.65 DUNLAP 1.55 CHATTANOOGA 1.46 MURFREESBORO 1.09 MEMPHIS 0.57 NASHVILLE 0.49 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...34.5 NORTH...89.0 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB OR 29.44 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM CDT BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK/CLARK $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 22.7N 152.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 23.4N 149.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 111620 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST LUNES 11 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA AL OESTE EN EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINCO FUE RELOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 10.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 44.7 OESTE O COMO ALREDEDOR DE 1120 MILLAS...1800 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION SE PUDIERA CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O EL MARTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...10.3 NORTE...44.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 111712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 89.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.07.2005 NOW INLAND AS A FILLING DEPRESSION TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 44.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.07.2005 10.3N 44.3W WEAK 00UTC 12.07.2005 10.2N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 10.7N 48.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 11.9N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 12.7N 54.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 13.7N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2005 14.8N 60.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 16.3N 64.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 17.6N 67.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2005 19.2N 70.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.07.2005 19.7N 74.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 20.7N 77.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.07.2005 22.0N 80.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111712