** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KJAN 110013 *** HLSJAN MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-112230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 713 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MONDAY MORNING... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO RALEIGH TO PURVIS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF CLARKE...KEMPER...AND LAUDERDALE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF ATTALA...CARROLL... CHOCTAW...CLAY...COVINGTON...FORREST...GRENADA...JASPER...JONES... LAMAR...LEAKE...LOWNDES...MONTGOMERY...NESHOBA...NEWTON...NOXUBEE... OKTIBBEHA...SCOTT...SMITH...WEBSTER...AND WINSTON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF COPIAH...HINDS...HOLMES...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAWRENCE...LEFLORE...LINCOLN...MADISON...MARION...RANKIN... SIMPSON AND YAZOO. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA...TO CARTHAGE...TO RALEIGH...TO PURVIS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI OR AROUND 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MILES AN HOUR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION CURFEWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN A FEW CITIES THROUGHOUT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV...OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS AND CURFEW TIMES. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ROUGHLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MILES AN HOUR...WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH WIND BLOWN RAIN. IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...PARTICULARLY IN CLARKE...KEMPER AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 70 TO 80 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2 AM. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...NEAR THE STARKVILLE AND COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI COMMUNITIES. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND GUSTS TO 70 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. DENNIS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND ALONG A TRACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN DOWN OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS OF BUILDINGS...AND OTHER STRUCTURE DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND LENGTHY POWER OUTAGES AS THOUSANDS OF TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM CDT. $$ GAGAN ** WTUS84 KMOB 110031 CCA *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110231- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED POSITION TIME... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 731 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY AROUND DENNIS' EYEWALL THROUGH 830 PM CDT PM CDT... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...GEORGE AND GREENE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WERE DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALSO...THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FINALLY...CONECUH AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER TROPICAL WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 715 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.5 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROEVILLE ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 90 MPH. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...OR...28.38 INCHES. DENNIS HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS STILL FALLING BETWEEN MOBILE AND DESTIN. SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL FALL OF STORM SURGE...ESPECIALLY OVER ESCAMBIA BAY...INCLUDING EAST BAY. AREA TIDE GAUGES AT 6 PM CDT SHOW 3.8 FEET AT DESTIN EAST PASS...3.5 FEET AT PERDIDO PASS...4.1 FEET AT SANTA ROSA SOUND...0.2 FEET AT MOBILE STATE DOCKS AND 1.3 FEET AT DAUPHIN ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS... WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED SINCE 6 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. THROUGH 9 PM CDT... HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING DENNIS. SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A GENERAL 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THUS...GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE RAPID...ESPECIALLY AND INITIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER...MURDER CREEK AND BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...TORNADO THREAT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCENTRATED AROUND AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER AS DENNIS MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AROUND THE EYE SINCE THE CIRCULATION INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED. ...NEWEST INFORMATION... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODERATE TO WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE STORM TRACK. HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM CDT. $$ MEDLIN ** WTUS84 KBMX 110036 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-110400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 736 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO ALABAMA... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY NORTHEAST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT FOR MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY NORTHEAST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA EXCEPT FOR MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROEVILLE ALABAMA. DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH DENNIS HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...IT IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STAY INDOORS IN A STURDY SHELTER...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. KEEP YOUR PETS INDOORS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A RESULT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM DENNIS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT WHERE WATER MAY QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM DENNIS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE. IF POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY SINCE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS IS PRODUCED. GENERATORS SHOULD NOT BE USED INDOORS...BUT IF NO ALTERNATIVE EXISTS...USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS...40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH... WILL OCCUR IN THESE AFFECTED AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A REFORM TO TUSCALOOSA TO CLANTON TO TROY LINE. WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH 4 AM CDT. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM CDT TONIGHT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS... 4 TO 8 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE CURRENT TRACK OF DENNIS...MAINLY AREAS ALONG A HAMILTON TO TUSCALOOSA TO DEMOPOLIS LINE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 2 AM CDT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND BETWEEN 9 PM CDT AND 6 AM CDT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DENNIS WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION WHEN AND IF THE WATERS BEGIN RISING. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR ALL BUT MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING DURING THIS TROPICAL EVENT. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE ALTERED DEPENDING ON THE LATEST TRACK OF DENNIS. IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY DANGEROUS SPIRAL BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. IF ROTATION IS OBSERVED...TORNADO WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. IF FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. && $$ MBS/91 ** WTUS84 KMOB 110040 CCB *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110231- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WWA SECTION... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 740 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY AROUND DENNIS' EYEWALL THROUGH 830 PM CDT PM CDT... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MOBILE TO DESTIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE INLAND PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALSO...GEORGE AND GREENE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WERE DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FINALLY...CONECUH AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAVE ALSO BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 715 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.5 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROEVILLE ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 90 MPH. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...OR...28.38 INCHES. DENNIS HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS STILL FALLING BETWEEN MOBILE AND DESTIN. SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL FALL OF STORM SURGE...ESPECIALLY OVER ESCAMBIA BAY...INCLUDING EAST BAY. AREA TIDE GAUGES AT 6 PM CDT SHOW 3.8 FEET AT DESTIN EAST PASS...3.5 FEET AT PERDIDO PASS...4.1 FEET AT SANTA ROSA SOUND...0.2 FEET AT MOBILE STATE DOCKS AND 1.3 FEET AT DAUPHIN ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS... WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED SINCE 6 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. THROUGH 9 PM CDT... HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING DENNIS. SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A GENERAL 3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THUS...GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE RAPID...ESPECIALLY AND INITIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER...MURDER CREEK AND BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...TORNADO THREAT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCENTRATED AROUND AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER AS DENNIS MOVES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AROUND THE EYE SINCE THE CIRCULATION INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED. ...NEWEST INFORMATION... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONROE...CLARKE AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 TO 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MODERATE TO WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY ALONG THE STORM TRACK. HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM CDT. $$ MEDLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 110055 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA IN EASTERN CLARKE COUNTY. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...31.7 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 110030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/110021ZJUL05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 21.9N 154.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAIL- ABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 154.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 154.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120030Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110112 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT DOMINGO 10 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS SE DEBILITA HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE ALABAMA...AUN ES AMENAZA POR PRODUCIR FUERTES LLUVIAS Y POSIBLES TORNADOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL RIO PEARL AL ESTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA. EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN LA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LA 8 PM CDT...0100Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.6 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE JACKSON ALABAMA EN EL ESTE DEL CONDADO DE CLARKE. DENNIS SE ESTA MOIVENDO AL NORTE NOROESTE HASTA 20 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORAS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DENNIS SE DEBILITE RAPIDAMENTE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 12 PIES SOBRE LAS MAREAS NORMALES....ACOMPANADO POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES A LO LARGO DE LA PARTE NORTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA DE ALABAMA. LA ALTURA DE MAREJADA CICLONICA HABRA DE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE MAS TARDE EN LA NOCHE. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y CERCA DE SU TRAYECTORIA A TRAVES DE LOS ESTADOS DEL SURESTE ENTRANDO AL VALLE DE OHIO POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASSOCIACION CON DENNIS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE ALABAMA...CENTRO Y SUR DE GEORGIA...Y EL NORTE CENTRAL Y NOROESTE DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM CDT...31.7 NORTE...87.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 110030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/110021ZJUL05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 21.9N 154.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAIL- ABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 154.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 154.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120030Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110112 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT DOMINGO 10 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS SE DEBILITA HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE ALABAMA...AUN ES AMENAZA POR PRODUCIR FUERTES LLUVIAS Y POSIBLES TORNADOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL RIO PEARL AL ESTE HASTA LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA. EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN LA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LA 8 PM CDT...0100Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.6 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE JACKSON ALABAMA EN EL ESTE DEL CONDADO DE CLARKE. DENNIS SE ESTA MOIVENDO AL NORTE NOROESTE HASTA 20 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORAS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DENNIS SE DEBILITE RAPIDAMENTE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 12 PIES SOBRE LAS MAREAS NORMALES....ACOMPANADO POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES A LO LARGO DE LA PARTE NORTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA DE ALABAMA. LA ALTURA DE MAREJADA CICLONICA HABRA DE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE MAS TARDE EN LA NOCHE. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y CERCA DE SU TRAYECTORIA A TRAVES DE LOS ESTADOS DEL SURESTE ENTRANDO AL VALLE DE OHIO POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASSOCIACION CON DENNIS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE ALABAMA...CENTRO Y SUR DE GEORGIA...Y EL NORTE CENTRAL Y NOROESTE DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM CDT...31.7 NORTE...87.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 110121 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-110400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT)... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT)... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT). A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...OR 28.70 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME WIND REPORTS AT 9 PM EDT (8 PM CDT): EGLIN AFB...30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 38 MPH. CRESTVIEW...17 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 MPH. APALACHICOLA...23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36 MPH. PANAMA CITY...20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 33 MPH. OZARK...24 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 MPH. DOTHAN...24 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 32 MPH. TALLAHASSEE...22 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 28 MPH. KEATON BEACH...23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 27 MPH. CEDAR KEY...23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 26 MPH. C TOWER...29 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 33 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS...AND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. SOME STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR DENNIS THROUGH 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT)... TALLAHASSEE 5.98 INCHES PERRY 6.95 INCHES CROSS CITY 4.37 INCHES PANAMA CITY 3.39 INCHES DOTHAN 3.10 INCHES VALDOSTA 3.91 INCHES ALBANY 2.92 INCHES ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST...STORM SURGES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT. THE BEACHES OF SOUTH WALTON COUNTY COULD STILL SEE 8 TO 10 FOOT SURGES. BAY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES HAVE EXPERIENCED A 6 TO 8 FOOT SURGE. ALL OF THESE EXPOSED AREAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION DUE TO LARGE BATTERING WAVES...SIMILAR TO HURRICANE IVAN. THE LATEST WAVE HEIGHTS MEASURED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY WAS 16 FEET. THE STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. STORM TIDES HAVE RISEN TO 9 FEET IN WAKULLA AND DIXIE COUNTIES...AND 8 TO 10 FEET IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHWAY 98 IS CLOSED BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND EASTPOINT... AND FROM NEWPORT TO THE FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE. EXTENSIVE COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN WAKULLA...FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES. SAINT MARKS IS FLOODED. TO THE EAST...TOTAL STORM TIDES WILL REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SOUTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED WATER UP TO TWO FEET DEEP OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN STEINHATCHEE AND JENA. NO ADDITIONAL RISES ARE ANTICIPATED. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... SHELL POINT... TODAY..LOW 11:38 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 6:12 AM AND 5:27 PM...LOW 11:45 AM. APALACHICOLA... MONDAY...HIGH 8:38 AM AND 7:01 AM...LOW 1:35 AM AND 2:02 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:51 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 12:56 PM...LOW 10:41 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...LOW 10:31 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 12:23 PM...LOW 10:21 PM. DESTIN... MONDAY...HIGH 12:53 PM...LOW 1:12 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGH SURF. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 1130 PM EDT. $$ JAMSKI ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 21.8N 153.5E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1010HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 22.0N 149.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.8N 153.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS84 KMOB 110159 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110300- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 900 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MOBILE TO DESTIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE INLAND PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES REMAIN IN AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALSO...ALL INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. FINALLY...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.6 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...OR...28.70 INCHES. DENNIS HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS STILL FALLING BETWEEN MOBILE AND DESTIN. AREA TIDE GAUGES AT 7 PM CDT SHOW 3.7 FEET AT DESTIN EAST PASS...3.7 FEET AT PERDIDO PASS...3.7 FEET AT SANTA ROSA SOUND...3.4 FEET AT MOBILE STATE DOCKS AND 1.3 FEET AT DAUPHIN ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OUT OF CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS ENDING AS DENNIS LIFTS OUT AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DUE TO RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM DENNIS...LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER... MURDER CREEK AND BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...TORNADO THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...CONCENTRATED AROUND AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS. THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION INTENSITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM CDT. $$ 10 ** WTUS84 KMOB 110200 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110300- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 900 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MOBILE TO DESTIN. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE INLAND PORTION OF THESE COUNTIES REMAIN IN AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALSO...ALL INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. FINALLY...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM CDT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.6 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...OR...28.70 INCHES. DENNIS HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT THIS TIME...THE STORM HAS MADE LANDFALL. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS STILL FALLING BETWEEN MOBILE AND DESTIN. AREA TIDE GAUGES AT 7 PM CDT SHOW 3.7 FEET AT DESTIN EAST PASS...3.7 FEET AT PERDIDO PASS...3.7 FEET AT SANTA ROSA SOUND...3.4 FEET AT MOBILE STATE DOCKS AND 1.3 FEET AT DAUPHIN ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... THROUGH 9 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OUT OF CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTY. WIND ARE GENERALLY 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHICH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS ENDING AS DENNIS LIFTS OUT AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DUE TO RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM DENNIS...LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER... MURDER CREEK AND BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...TORNADO THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...CONCENTRATED AROUND AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS. THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION INTENSITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT. $$ 10 ** WTNT24 KNHC 110220 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z MON JUL 11 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 87.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 87.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.3N 88.7W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N 89.4W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.7N 89.4W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.4N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 38.9N 87.9W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 38.9N 87.2W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.9N 87.3W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 87.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 110221 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.4N 89.4W 41 X X X 41 38.4N 89.0W 17 4 1 1 23 37.7N 89.4W 26 1 1 X 28 PENSACOLA FL 2 X X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 110233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR IN CENTRAL MARENGO COUNTY ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF DENNIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...32.3 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 110235 *** HLSJAN MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-112230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 933 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MONDAY MORNING... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO FOREST TO LAUREL. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND REPLACED WITH THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING KEMPER...LAUDERDALE...CLARKE. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES GRENADA...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA...LEAKE... ...SCOTT...SMITH...JONES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE. NESHOBA...NEWTON...JASPER. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF GRENADA... MONTGOMERY... ATTALA... LEAKE...SCOTT...SMITH...JONES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA...LEAKE...SCOTT...SMITH... COVINGTON...JONES...LAMAR...FORREST... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES...CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...KEMPER...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE E...JASPER...CLARKE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 75 SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MILES AN HOUR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION CURFEWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN A FEW CITIES THROUGHOUT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV...OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS AND CURFEW TIMES. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 MILES AN HOUR...WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NOXUBEE AND LOWNDES COUNTY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. DENNIS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND ALONG A TRACK TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN DOWN OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS OF BUILDINGS...AND OTHER STRUCTURE DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND POWERLINES ARE BLOWN DOWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT. $$ BYRD ** WTNT25 KNHC 110236 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z MON JUL 11 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 42.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 42.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.1N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W...NEAR NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 110237 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED JUL 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 11.5N 46.7W 46 X X X 46 TDPR 153N 614W X X X 10 10 12.1N 49.0W 17 16 X X 33 80400 157N 636W X X X 4 4 12.8N 51.7W X 16 9 1 26 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 10 10 TTPP 106N 614W X X X 3 3 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 9 9 TTPT 112N 608W X X X 5 5 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 7 7 TGPY 120N 618W X X X 4 4 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 6 6 TBPB 131N 595W X X X 12 12 TISX 177N 648W X X X 3 3 TVSV 131N 612W X X X 7 7 TIST 183N 650W X X X 2 2 TLPL 138N 610W X X X 9 9 ST CROIX VI X X X 3 3 TFFF 146N 610W X X X 10 10 ST THOMAS VI X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 110240 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005 ...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 110241 *** HLSLIX MSZ080>082-110500- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER LAND AREAS. SMALL CRAFT THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES UNTIL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...RAINFALL... MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM DENNIS. $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 110242 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-110400- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS. A PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT (PSHTBW) WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY. $$ MCMICHAEL ** WTUS84 KLIX 110244 *** HLSLIX MSZ080>082-110500- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER LAND AREAS. SMALL CRAFT THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES UNTIL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...RAINFALL... MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM DENNIS. $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 110244 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z MON JUL 11 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 55 KT TO 45 KT AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 87.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 87.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.3N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N 89.4W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.7N 89.4W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.4N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 38.9N 87.9W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 38.9N 87.2W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.9N 87.3W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 87.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 110247 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 65 MPH TO 50 MPH ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR IN CENTRAL MARENGO COUNTY ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF DENNIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...32.3 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110247 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT DOMINGO 10 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE ALABAMA...AUN AMENAZA CON FUERTES LLUVIAS Y POSIBLES TORNADOS... A LA 10 PM CDT...0300Z...TODOS LOS AVISOS DE CICLON TROPICAL SOBRE LA COSTA HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LA 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.8 OESTE O EN LA PARTE CENTRAL DEL CONDADO DE MARENGO O COMO A 25 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA . DENNIS SE ESTA MOIVENDO AL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORAS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DENNIS SE DEBILITE RAPIDAMENTE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA PARTE NORTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA DE ALABANA HABRA DE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y CERCA DE SU TRAYECTORIA A TRAVES DE LOS ESTADOS DEL SURESTE ENTRANDO AL VALLE DE OHIO POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASSOCIACION CON DENNIS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA NOCHE...Y EN ESPECIAL DURANTE EL LUNES...SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL NORTE DE ALABAMA...CENTRO Y SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...Y EL OESTE DEL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...32.3 NORTE...87.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110248 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT DOMINGO 10 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE ALABAMA...AUN AMENAZA CON FUERTES LLUVIAS Y POSIBLES TORNADOS... A LA 10 PM CDT...0300Z...TODOS LOS AVISOS DE CICLON TROPICAL SOBRE LA COSTA HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LA 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.8 OESTE O EN LA PARTE CENTRAL DEL CONDADO DE MARENGO O COMO A 25 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA . DENNIS SE ESTA MOIVENDO AL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORAS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DENNIS SE DEBILITE RAPIDAMENTE HASTA CONVERTIRSE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES ASOCIADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA EN LA PARTE NORTE DE FLORIDA Y LA COSTA DE ALABANA HABRA DE DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y CERCA DE SU TRAYECTORIA A TRAVES DE LOS ESTADOS DEL SURESTE ENTRANDO AL VALLE DE OHIO POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASSOCIACION CON DENNIS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS ESTA NOCHE...Y EN ESPECIAL DURANTE EL LUNES...SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL NORTE DE ALABAMA...CENTRO Y SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...Y EL OESTE DEL VALLE DE TENNESSEE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...32.3 NORTE...87.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 110249 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ALC003-097-FLC005-017-029-033-037-045-053-057-065-075-081-091-101- 103-113-123-129-131-MSC045-047-059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 750-755-770-775-830-850-853-870-873-110900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TBW...TAE...MOB... ** WTUS84 KLIX 110249 CCA *** HLSLIX MSZ080>082-110500- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY ...DENNIS WEAKENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER LAND AREAS. SMALL CRAFT THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES UNTIL WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...RAINFALL... MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM DENNIS. $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 110251 CCA *** HLSJAN MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-112230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 933 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MONDAY MORNING... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO FOREST TO LAUREL. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES AND REPLACED WITH THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING KEMPER...LAUDERDALE...CLARKE. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES GRENADA...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA...LEAKE ...SCOTT...SMITH...JONES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...NEWTON...JASPER. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF GRENADA...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA... LEAKE...SCOTT...SMITH...JONES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES GRENADA...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA...LEAKE...SCOTT...SMITH... COVINGTON...JONES...LAMAR...FORREST... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES...CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...KEMPER...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE ...JASPER...CLARKE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 75 SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MILES AN HOUR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION CURFEWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN A FEW CITIES THROUGHOUT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV...OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS AND CURFEW TIMES. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 MILES AN HOUR...WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NOXUBEE AND LOWNDES COUNTY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. DENNIS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND ALONG A TRACK TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN DOWN OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS OF BUILDINGS...AND OTHER STRUCTURE DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND POWERLINES ARE BLOWN DOWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT. $$ BYRD ** WTNT44 KNHC 110257 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIPPLER RADARDATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENNIS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. NO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE GULF DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS...SO ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/14. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS DENNIS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN 72 THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THIS FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE DENNIS MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT DECREASED MUCH AT ALL BASED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. UNFORTUNATELY... THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF TORNADOES ON MONDAY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS' TRACK DURING THE DAY ONCE THE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOPSHERE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 32.3N 87.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 34.3N 88.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 12/0000Z 36.4N 89.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 12/1200Z 37.7N 89.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 13/0000Z 38.4N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z 38.9N 87.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 15/0000Z 38.9N 87.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.9N 87.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 110257 CCA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CINCO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM CDT DOMINGO 10 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA QUINTA DEPRESION TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA SE FORMA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CENTRAL... A LA 11 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO CINCO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 10.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 42.9 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 1280 MILLAS...2055 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOIVENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORAS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EL LUNES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM CDT...10.8 NORTE...42.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 110259 *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-110600- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL WILL BRING POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT COVERS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR COLBERT...CULLMAN...FRANKLIN...LAUDERDALE...AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR DEKALB...JACKSON...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES COVERED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...DENNIS HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOCATION WAS NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR IN CENTRAL MARENGO COUNTY ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...OR 28.94 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ANY PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM DENNIS SHOULD BE HURRIED TO COMPLETION AS THE STORM APPROACHES. ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SATURATED GROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF THEN-TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS PASSES JUST TO THE WEST...AND LIMITED HEATING COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1 AM CDT. $$ BCC ** WTUS84 KMOB 110300 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110315- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVES OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...ALL INLAND AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE AREA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...ALL INLAND AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATE TONIGHT AS DENNIS MOVES FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3 NORTH LATITUDE AND 87.8 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 980 MB...OR...28.94 INCHES. DENNIS WAS MOVING NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NONE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WINDS ARE DECREASING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. RESIDUAL SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF DENNIS. SOME OF THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. AS DENNIS LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO END LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM DENNIS...LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD POTENTIALLY BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. THE AREA OF GREATEST INLAND FLOOD CONCERN INCLUDES THE CONECUH RIVER... MURDER CREEK AND BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE SHOAL...YELLOW AND BLACKWATER RIVERS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...TORNADO THREAT... NONE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON DENNIS. $$ 10 ** WTUS82 KTAE 110301 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-110400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...TORNADO AND FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT)... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TORNADO WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT (11 PM CDT). ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB... OR 28.94 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS...AND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN FEEDER BAND OF DENNIS MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. SOME STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA: TALLAHASSEE FL 6.3 INCHES WOODVILLE FL 8.5 INCHES HAVANA FL 7.0 INCHES MAYO FL 4.7 INCHES THOMASVILLE GA 5.3 INCHES MADISON FL 4.0 INCHES ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE DUE TO LARGE BATTERING WAVES. THE LATEST WAVE HEIGHT MEASURED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY WAS 16 FEET. LIKEWISE...STORM TIDES SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHWAY 98 REMAINS CLOSED BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND EASTPOINT...AND FROM NEWPORT TO THE FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE. EXTENSIVE COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN WAKULLA...FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES. SAINT MARKS REMAINS UNDER WATER. TO THE EAST...TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SOUTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED WATER UP TO TWO FEET DEEP OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN STEINHATCHEE AND JENA. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... SHELL POINT... TODAY..LOW 11:38 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 6:12 AM AND 5:27 PM...LOW 11:45 AM. APALACHICOLA... MONDAY...HIGH 8:38 AM AND 7:01 AM...LOW 1:35 AM AND 2:02 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:51 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 12:56 PM...LOW 10:41 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...LOW 10:31 PM. MONDAY...HIGH 12:23 PM...LOW 10:21 PM. DESTIN... MONDAY...HIGH 12:53 PM...LOW 1:12 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON DENNIS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE. $$ JAMSKI ** WTNT45 KNHC 110310 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25-KT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN 84 TO 96 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 5... THE RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND POSSIBLY TURN THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINCIAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR 29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.8N 42.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 11.0N 44.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.5N 46.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 12.1N 49.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.8N 51.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 57.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 110335 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-110700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1035 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DENNIS AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA... ...THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECTS THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY... ...THE TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS DECREASED...BUT IF INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALICEVILLE TO COLUMBIANA TO ROANOKE LINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY. ...THE TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS DECREASED...BUT IF INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALICEVILLE TO COLUMBIANA TO ROANOKE LINE... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...OR IN CENTRAL MARENGO COUNTY. DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE 5 AM ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STAY INDOORS IN A STURDY SHELTER...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. KEEP YOUR PETS INDOORS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM DENNIS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT WHERE WATER MAY QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM DENNIS. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO ALABAMA POWER PLEASE CALL 800 8 8 8 2 7 2 6. IF POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY SINCE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS IS PRODUCED. GENERATORS SHOULD NOT BE USED INDOORS...BUT IF NO ALTERNATIVE EXISTS...USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. AS CLEAN UP EFFORTS START TOMORROW...PLEASE BE CAREFUL AROUND ANY DOWNED POWER LINES AND USING ANY TYPE OF MACHINERY. TRADITIONALLY... MORE PEOPLE DIE DURING CLEAN UP EFFORTS THAN FROM THE ACTUAL STORM ITSELF. ...WIND IMPACTS... STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TWENTY MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EYE. THE EYE WILL TRACK ALONG A LINDEN TO FAYETTE LINE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES SERVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE AND ON THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS... 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON CDT MONDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DENNIS WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS FLOODING WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION WHEN AND IF THE WATERS BEGIN RISING. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES HAS DECREASED...BUT IF INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ALICEVILLE TO COLUMBIANA TO ROANOKE LINE. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS SET UP A HOT LINE FOR ROAD CLOSURE INFORMATION IN SOUTH ALABAMA. THE ACCESS NUMBER IS 1-888-588-2848. TO REPORT DOWN POWER LINES TO PLEASE CALL ALABAMA POWER AT 800-888- 2726. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING DURING THIS TROPICAL EVENT. WIND WARNINGS MAY BE ALTERED DEPENDING ON THE LATEST TRACK OF DENNIS. IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY DANGEROUS SPIRAL BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. IF ROTATION IS OBSERVED...TORNADO WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED. IF FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 AM CDT THIS MORNING. && $$ ** WTUS84 KHUN 110342 CCA *** HLSHUN ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-110600- TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL WILL BRING POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT COVERS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SERVICED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR COLBERT...CULLMAN...FRANKLIN...LAUDERDALE...AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR DEKALB...JACKSON...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES COVERED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...DENNIS HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE LOCATION WAS NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR IN CENTRAL MARENGO COUNTY ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...OR 28.94 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ANY PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM DENNIS SHOULD BE HURRIED TO COMPLETION AS THE STORM APPROACHES. ENSURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS REMAIN SECURE...INCLUDING PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SATURATED GROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF THEN-TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS PASSES JUST TO THE WEST...AND LIMITED HEATING COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1 AM CDT. $$ BCC ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 22.0N 153.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1010HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 22.0N 148.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTUS84 KJAN 110410 *** HLSJAN MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-112230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CONTINUES A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WILL AFFECT EAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO CARTHAGE TO FOREST TO LAUREL. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...NEWTON...JASPER. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF GRENADA...MONTGOMERY...ATTALA... LEAKE...SCOTT...SMITH...JONES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES...CHOCTAW... OKTIBBEHA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...NESHOBA...KEMPER...NEWTON... LAUDERDALE ...JASPER...CLARKE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 55 MILES EAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AND 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MILES AN HOUR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION CURFEWS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN A FEW CITIES THROUGHOUT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV...OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS AND CURFEW TIMES. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 MPH WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NOXUBEE AND LOWNDES COUNTY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THESE COUNTIES. DENNIS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND ALONG A TRACK TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN DOWN OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS OF BUILDINGS...AND OTHER STRUCTURE DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND POWERLINES ARE BLOWN DOWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 AM CDT. $$ BYRD ** WTNT80 EGRR 110539 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 31.5N 87.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2005 31.5N 87.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2005 34.4N 89.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 36.6N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.0N 20.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2005 10.0N 20.3W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2005 12.0N 21.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 13.0N 25.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 14.5N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 15.3N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 15.5N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 16.2N 40.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2005 16.8N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2005 17.3N 46.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2005 18.6N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2005 19.7N 50.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2005 21.2N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.07.2005 22.9N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 42.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2005 10.5N 42.7W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2005 10.4N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 10.1N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 10.6N 49.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 11.0N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 11.8N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 12.1N 60.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110539 ** WTPN21 PGTW 110030) FOR FURTHE *** DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT MULTISPEC- TRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POSSIBLE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 0.5N 161.5E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECT- ION SURROUNDING A POSSIBLE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//