** WTUS82 KTAE 091201 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 755 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ..A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA OR AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS DECREASED TO 969 MB OR 28.61 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 1130 AM EDT. $$ BLOCK/HICKS $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KLIX 091243 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091600- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 700 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...DENNIS RE-STRENGTHENING...BACK TO CATEGORY TWO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES... ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...AND TANGIPAHOA AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND INCREASING TIDES...DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 500 SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE REACHED 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS.... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE... BECAUSE HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STORM SURGE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 091259 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. KEY WEST HAS CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 74 MPH...OR HURRICANE FORCE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 091304 *** HLSJAN MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-091700- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 800 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...THIS INCLUDES MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...LEAKE...NESHOBA... KEMPER...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE... JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR...AND FORREST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 500 SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SECURE ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE SINCE HIGH WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTER 5 PM OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 125 MPH WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE. ONCE ONSHORE...DENNIS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED. ANY SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE TRACK WILL MEAN STRONGER WINDS. ...RAINFALL... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MOVES ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL PROMOTE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON. $$ 40 ** WTUS84 KBMX 091320 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-091559- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 820 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...OR ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALABAMA GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MORE DETAILED TIME...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AT LEAST 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. && LINHARES $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 091328 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 900 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE ROADWAYS FROM YOUR PLACE OF SAFETY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 4 PM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED CURRENT WIND. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST...ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 967 MB...OR 28.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE STREETS AT THIS TIME. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXIST...INCLUDING SOME FALLEN TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES...AND SOME DOWNED AND NON FUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS. TO REPORT TREES THAT ARE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES OR DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE CITY OF KEY WEST...PLEASE CALL 809-1108. THE KEY WEST 911 SYSTEM IS FUNCTIONING NORMALLY AND SHOULD BE USED ONLY IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IS OCCURRING NOW. IN THE LOWER KEYS...IT WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH A MAXIMUM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FEET EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH. THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS 74 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 40 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. IN THE LOWER KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MIDDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE GULF WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS ** WTCA44 TJSJ 091329 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA ORGANIZANDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN OCURRIENDO A TRAVES DE LA PARTE SUR DE LOS CAYOS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO AL NORESTE DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS AL SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...Y CIENFUEGOS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y LA PROVINCIA DE PINAR DEL RIO. AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA CUBA PUDIERAN SER DESCONTINUADOS MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH AL SUR. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITANA Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 9 AM EDT...1300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.5 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 380 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA O COMO A 520 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS ESTAN 100 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNA FLUCTUACION EN INTENSIDAD SE ESPERA HOY. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS ...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS. KEY WEST CONTINUA EXPERIMENTADO RAFAGAS DE 74 MPH...O FUERZA DE HURACAN. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 967 MILIBARAS...28.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA CENTRAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA HOY. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA Y SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 AM AST...24.4 NORTE...83.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...967 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 091333 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091530- HURRICANE (INSERT STORM NAME) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 930 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS REGAINING STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS REGAINING STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 9 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THIS IS POSITION ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN BRADENTON...THE PORT OF TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG EARLIER THIS MORNING. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEVERAL STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF 930 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR SARASOTA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IF VISITING THE BEACH HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BEACH PATROL. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTUS82 KTBW 091345 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 930 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS REGAINING STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS REGAINING STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 9 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THIS IS POSITION ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN BRADENTON...THE PORT OF TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG EARLIER THIS MORNING. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEVERAL STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF 930 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR SARASOTA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IF VISITING THE BEACH HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BEACH PATROL. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTUS82 KTBW 091350 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 930 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS REGAINING STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS REGAINING STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 9 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THIS IS POSITION ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN BRADENTON...THE PORT OF TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG EARLIER THIS MORNING. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEVERAL STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF 930 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR SARASOTA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IF VISITING THE BEACH HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BEACH PATROL. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT54 KNHC 091355 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 091428 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1025 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...STORM SURGE ESTIMATED NEAR 5 FEET AT KEY WEST AIRPORT... ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE ROADWAYS FROM YOUR PLACE OF SAFETY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 4 PM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST...ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 967 MB...OR 28.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY SHERIFFS STATIONED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAVE MEASURED 4.5 FEET OF WATER AT THE END OF THE RUNWAY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST ESTIMATES 5 FEET OF STORM SURGE ALONG SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE STREETS AT THIS TIME. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXIST...INCLUDING SOME FALLEN TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES...AND SOME DOWNED AND NON FUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS. TO REPORT TREES THAT ARE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES OR DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE CITY OF KEY WEST...PLEASE CALL 809-1108. THE KEY WEST 911 SYSTEM IS FUNCTIONING NORMALLY AND SHOULD BE USED ONLY IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH. THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS 74 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 40 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. IN THE LOWER KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MIDDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE GULF WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS ** WTNT24 KNHC 091434 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z SAT JUL 09 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N 85.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N 89.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 36.5N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.0N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 39.0N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 83.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 091435 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.7N 86.4W 49 X X X 49 APALACHICOLA FL 34 2 X 1 37 31.2N 87.7W 3 29 X X 32 PANAMA CITY FL 32 6 X X 38 33.6N 89.0W X 9 15 X 24 PENSACOLA FL 15 21 X X 36 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 1 X 2 MOBILE AL 4 26 X X 30 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 1 2 GULFPORT MS 3 21 X X 24 KEY WEST FL 24 X X X 24 BURAS LA 4 12 X X 16 MARCO ISLAND FL 2 X X X 2 NEW ORLEANS LA 1 10 1 X 12 FT MYERS FL 3 X X X 3 NEW IBERIA LA X 2 X 1 3 VENICE FL 12 X X X 12 GULF 29N 85W 44 X X X 44 TAMPA FL 7 X X X 7 GULF 29N 87W 42 1 X 1 44 CEDAR KEY FL 11 2 X X 13 GULF 28N 89W 11 3 X X 14 ST MARKS FL 17 7 X X 24 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 091438 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z SAT JUL 09 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 80 TO 85 KT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 83.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N 85.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N 89.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 36.5N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.0N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 39.0N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 83.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 091448 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...DENNIS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA... WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 091500 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS ALC003-097-FLC005-033-037-045-065-091-113-123-129-131-MSC045-047- 059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675-750-755-770-775-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC017-029-053-057-075-101-103-GMZ830-850-853-870-873-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W TARPON-SPRINGS-FL 28.15N 82.79W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-081-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033- 656-657-676-856-876-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ031-052-053-072-073-092100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-092100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MOB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KTBW 091502 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091730- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME STRENGTHING POSSIBLE. STRONG RAINBANDS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THIS IS POSITION ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN BRADENTON...THE PORT OF TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES TODAY AND OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...HOWEVER...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAINBANDS. SEVERAL STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. GENERAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER LEE...CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHERN SARASOTA COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF 11 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES IN THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA...6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR ENGLEWOOD...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR SARASOTA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IF VISITING THE BEACH HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BEACH PATROL. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 100 AND 130 PM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT44 KNHC 091502 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS SLOWLY BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SINCE DENNIS MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED BY A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE EYE HAS BEEN RAGGED LOOKING MOST OF THIS MORNING IN THE KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR DATA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR DATA...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. DENNIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A COOL EDDY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WARMER WATER IN 12-18 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE SSTS AHEAD OF DENNIS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL...SO THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS IF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DOES NOT REGAIN ITS ORIGINAL STRUCTURE. BUT GIVEN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER IS ONLY 10-15 MILES...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND THE EYE FOR DENNIS TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE 64-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON RECON DATA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 24.7N 83.8W 85 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 26.4N 85.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 87.7W 65 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 11/1200Z 33.6N 89.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 12/1200Z 36.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.0N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 14/1200Z 39.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 091504 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-092200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1115 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS FROM DENNIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...ANOTHER SPIRAL BAND IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN MIAMI-DADE AND COLLIER COUNTIES...ONE SHELTER IS OPEN IN EACH COUNTY TO ACCOMMODATE PEOPLE WHO HAVE VOLUNTARILY EVACUATED FROM MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PERSONS WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD PROBLEMS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING NAPLES...MARCO ISLAND AND EVERGLADES CITY...SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXACT HEIGHT OF THE STORM TIDE DEPENDS UPON THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH AND LOW TIDE. HIGH TIDE ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A LOW TIDE AROUND 10 PM EDT. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME BEACH FRONT STRUCTURES AND PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST AROUND 430 AM EDT SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME A SECOND STORM TIDE...THIS TIME AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...IS POSSIBLE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COASTS. WITH AN EBB TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. OVER COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AREAS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. OVER LAND THESE WINDS CAN CAUSE POWER LINES TO BLOW DOWN...TREES TO UPROOT AND LARGE LIMBS TO BLOW OFF. FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AT 10 AM...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PREVIOUS HIGH WINDS...EVEN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREE LIMBS WHICH CAN CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY... AND GLADES COUNTIES...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FINALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY AT BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERSONS SHOULD GO ONLY TO GUARDED BEACHES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... HEAVIEST REPORTED 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS OF THIS MORNING INCLUDE NEARLY 5 INCHES IN THE IMMOKALEE AREA OF NORTH COLLIER COUNTY AND OVER 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN HENDRY AND WESTERN GLADES COUNTIES. MEASURED 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING AT 8 AM THIS MORNING INCLUDE... 3.76 INCHES AT FORT LAUDERDALE...2.78 INCHES AT PEMBROKE PINES...2.33 INCHES AT NAPLES...2.13 INCHES AT MIAMI AND 0.42 INCHES AT WEST PALM BEACH. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... QUICK FORMING FAST MOVING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ANYWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS84 KBMX 091506 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-091800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1005 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...OR 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALABAMA GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO OR CATEGORY THREE STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MORE DETAILED TIME...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AT LEAST 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. && LINHARES $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 091510 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091730- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1110 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...STORM SURGE ESTIMATED NEAR 5 FEET AT KEY WEST AIRPORT... ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE ROADWAYS FROM YOUR PLACE OF SAFETY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 4 PM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED HEADLINES. PUPATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 125 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 967 MB...OR 28.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. MONROE COUNTY SHERIFFS STATIONED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAVE MEASURED A 4.5 FOOT STORM SURGE AT THE END OF THE RUNWAY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST ESTIMATES 5 FEET OF STORM SURGE ALONG SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE STREETS AT THIS TIME. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXIST...INCLUDING SOME FALLEN TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES...AND SOME DOWNED AND NON FUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS. TO REPORT TREES THAT ARE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES OR DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE CITY OF KEY WEST...PLEASE CALL 809-1108. THE KEY WEST 911 SYSTEM IS FUNCTIONING NORMALLY AND SHOULD BE USED ONLY IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH. THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS 74 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE OCCURRING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS ARE AFFECTING THE STRAITS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE GULF WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS ** WTCA44 TJSJ 091513 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO AL NORESTE DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS AL SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO AL NORESTE DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. SIN EMBARGO...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH AL SUR...INCLUYENDO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL ESTE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITANA Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. A LAS 11AM EDT...TODAS LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA CUBA HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.8 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 355 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA O COMO A 480 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO HOY CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS IS UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55KM...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 967 MILIBARAS...28.56 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA... LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA...EL NORTE DE LA FLORIDA...EL SURESTE DE ALABAMA...Y EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA CENTRAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. MAREJADA CICLONICA COMENZARA A DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE A LO LARGO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DEL SUR HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 8 A 10 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO Y A LA DERECHA DE DONDE EL CENTRO DE DENNIS CRUZE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GLOFO EL DOMINGO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA Y SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA HOY....Y A TRAVES DEL NORTE DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...24.7 NORTE...83.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...967 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM EDT Y 3 PM SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 091516 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161-092015- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1115 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ..A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...OR AROUND 355 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA...OR 400 MILES SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEGINNING TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS DECREASED TO 967 MB OR 28.57 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE TO ST GEORGE ISLAND...AND EXTEND BY SUNRISE FROM DESTIN TO SHELL POINT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWEST AND WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW EVACUATION ORDERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 330 PM EDT. BLOCK/HICKS $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 091529 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091800- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...DENNIS RE-STRENGTHENING...BACK TO CATEGORY TWO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES... ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...AND TANGIPAHOA AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND INCREASING TIDES...DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE REACHED 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS.... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...A 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES FOR JACKSON COUNTY IF HURRICANE TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA A 2 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM COULD OCCUR IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY PRIMARILY ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN JACKSON COUNTY IF HURRICANE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL FURTHER TO THE WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1230 PM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ ** WTNT54 KNHC 091552 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 12 PM EDT...1600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 091613 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091600- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1115 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...CONECUH... COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR WAYNE... PERRY...GREENE...GEORGE AND STONE IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 439 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS CUBA...AND IS NOW EXPERIENCING SOME COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THAT ISLAND. AS A RESULT...IT HAS NOT GAINED BACK AS MUCH OF ITS PREVIOUS STRENGTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...DENNIS HAS MANY HOURS LEFT TO GET STRONGER OVER WARMER WATERS IN THE EASTCENTRAL GULF...SO INTENSIFICATION BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH IS VERY POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST YEAR...EVEN IF IT MAKES LANDFALL AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...AND CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH IS STILL A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 10 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DAMAGE TO COASTAL AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH...WITH WINDS FROM 110 TO 115 MPH...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... LANE REVERSAL OF I-65 HAS BEGUN IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE REVERSE LANING BEGINS NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND ENDS JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. MOTORISTS DESIRING TO GO SOUTH FROM MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. BANKHEAD TUNNEL IN MOBILE WILL CLOSE AT 100 PM SATURDAY...WALLACE TUNNEL ON INTERSTATE 10 WILL REMAIN OPEN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM. $$ BEELER/CULLEN ** WTUS84 KMOB 091614 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091600- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1115 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...CONECUH... COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR WAYNE... PERRY...GREENE...GEORGE AND STONE IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 439 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS CUBA...AND IS NOW EXPERIENCING SOME COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THAT ISLAND. AS A RESULT...IT HAS NOT GAINED BACK AS MUCH OF ITS PREVIOUS STRENGTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...DENNIS HAS MANY HOURS LEFT TO GET STRONGER OVER WARMER WATERS IN THE EASTCENTRAL GULF...SO INTENSIFICATION BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH IS VERY POSSIBLE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST YEAR...EVEN IF IT MAKES LANDFALL AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...AND CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH IS STILL A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE AROUND 10 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DAMAGE TO COASTAL AREAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH...WITH WINDS FROM 110 TO 115 MPH...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... LANE REVERSAL OF I-65 HAS BEGUN IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE REVERSE LANING BEGINS NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND ENDS JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. MOTORISTS DESIRING TO GO SOUTH FROM MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. BANKHEAD TUNNEL IN MOBILE WILL CLOSE AT 100 PM SATURDAY...WALLACE TUNNEL ON INTERSTATE 10 WILL REMAIN OPEN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM. $$ MCKEE/JACOBI ** WTNT34 KNHC 091650 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...DENNIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA... WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 091656 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 CORRECTED FOR MOTION ...DENNIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA... WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KJAN 091658 *** HLSJAN MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-092200- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 12 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...THIS INCLUDES MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...LEAKE...NESHOBA... KEMPER...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE... JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR...AND FORREST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SECURE ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE SINCE HIGH WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTER 5 PM OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 125 MPH WHEN IT MOVES ONSHORE. ONCE ONSHORE...DENNIS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS...WHERE TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED. ANY SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE TRACK WILL MEAN STRONGER WINDS. ...RAINFALL... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MOVES ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL PROMOTE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM WHEN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS. $$ 40 ** WTUS82 KTBW 091658 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091930- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 100 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AND IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... STORM SURGE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH GENERAL STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET NOW ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. THIS IS POSITION ALSO ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN BRADENTON...THE PORT OF TAMPA AND ST PETERSBURG. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LEE... CHARLOTTE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES TODAY AND OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...HOWEVER...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAINBANDS. SEVERAL STRONG RAINBANDS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...INCLUDING INLAND LOCATIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. GENERAL WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE TO 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. GENERAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER LEE...CHARLOTTE AND SOUTHERN SARASOTA COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. AS OF 11 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES IN THE PORT CHARLOTTE AREA...6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR ENGLEWOOD...4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR SARASOTA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IF VISITING THE BEACH HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE BEACH PATROL. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 100 AND 130 PM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK ** WTNT80 EGRR 091658 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 83.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.07.2005 23.9N 83.8W INTENSE 00UTC 10.07.2005 26.3N 85.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 28.1N 86.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 30.4N 87.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 33.8N 88.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 35.3N 89.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 37.8N 89.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 38.7N 88.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 39.4N 85.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091658 ** WTUS84 KJAN 091702 *** HLSJAN MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-092200- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 12 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI FOR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI...THIS INCLUDES MONTGOMERY...WEBSTER...CLAY...LOWNDES... CHOCTAW...OKTIBBEHA...ATTALA...WINSTON...NOXUBEE...LEAKE...NESHOBA... KEMPER...SCOTT...NEWTON...LAUDERDALE...SMITH...JASPER...CLARKE... JEFFERSON DAVIS...COVINGTON...JONES...MARION...LAMAR...AND FORREST COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. YOU CAN ALSO REFER TO THE MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE AT: WWW.MSEMA.ORG. RESIDENTS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SECURE ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE SINCE HIGH WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 M