** WTIN20 DEMS 090635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-07-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTNT34 KNHC 090646 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A WEAKER DENNIS...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE KEY WEST RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090655 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 3 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRA DEBIL A DENNIS...SE ESPERA QUR SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. UNA GRAN PORCION DEL AVISO DE HURACAN PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO PRONTO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDOS PARA PORCIONES DE ESTA AREA EN HORAS TEMPRANAS DEL DIA DE HOY. UN AVISO DE TROMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CAYO ANCLOTE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL A GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO LA METROPOLIS DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL CAYO ANCLOTE AL NORTE HASTA AL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 3 AM EDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.6 OESTE O COMO A 90 MILLAS...145 KM AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS SE DEBE ESTAR ALEJANDO DE CUBA Y MOVINEDOSE HACIA EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EN EL DIA DE HOY. REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICA QUE DENNIS SE HA DEBILITADO MIENTRAS SE MOVIA SOBRE CUBA Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE EMERGIENDO COMO UN HURACAN MAYOR A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 973 MILIBARAS...28.73 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR CENTRAL DE CUBA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LAS BAHIAS Y PEQUENOS PUERTOS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA HOY. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 3 AM AST...23.5 NORTE...82.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...973 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 5 AM EDT POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 090700 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090930- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED CURRENT WIND INFORMATION UPDATED CURRENT STORM TIDE INFORMATION ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 300 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 973 MB...OR 28.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMAIN IN A SAFE LOCATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED AROUND 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 MPH. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECENTLY RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 71 MPH...AND A TRAINED SPOTTER ON CUDJOE KEY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 61 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 74 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAS AVERAGED FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS84 KLIX 090710 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091100- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A WEAKER DENNIS...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES... ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...AND TANGIPAHOA AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND INCREASING TIDES...DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...WIND IMPACTS.... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE... BECAUSE HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STORM SURGE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 090717 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-091000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1130 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...PALM BEACH... HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES...AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DENNIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 219 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE. COLLIER COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF U.S. 41 AND FOR THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND WITH SPECIAL NEEDS IN THE AFFECTED AREA. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL HAS BEEN OPENED AS A SHELTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD RUSH A PREPARATIONS OR REMAIN INDOOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A MAXIMUM IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AT NAPLES AND 4 PM AT CAPE SABLE. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME COASTAL STRUCTURES AND PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT TONIGHT AND AROUND 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT ACCESS ROADS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE... MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TONIGHT. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 57 MPH...WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES...GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PASSING RAIN BANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 68 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 13 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 24 PERCENT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF THIS OCCURRING IS THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS... MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY THROUGH AROUND NOON SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. SEAS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PALM BEACH, GLADES, HENDRY AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MIAMI- DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS SPIRAL BANDS CIRCULATING ABOUT HURRICANE DENNIS COULD ALLOW THE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... RAIN BANDS SPIRALING AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE TORNADO WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. THEREFORE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND TAKE SHELTER IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 5 AM EDT SATURDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PS ** WTUS84 KMOB 090735 *** HLSMOB ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-091200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TODAY. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS...ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DESTRUCTION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCED LAST YEAR. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 120 MPH...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... I-65 WILL BE REVERSED LANED NORTH BEGINNING AT 800 AM SATURDAY. THE REVERSE LANING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM. $$ BEELER/CULLEN ** WTUS84 KMOB 090735 *** HLSMOB ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-091200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TODAY. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES LATER TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS...ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DESTRUCTION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCED LAST YEAR. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 120 MPH...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... I-65 WILL BE REVERSED LANED NORTH BEGINNING AT 800 AM SATURDAY. THE REVERSE LANING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM. $$ BEELER/CULLEN ** WTNT54 KNHC 090752 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 4 AM EDT...0800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090846 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0900Z SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL PROVINCES FROM SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 82.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 82.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 82.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.3N 84.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.8N 87.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 38.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 39.1N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 82.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090846 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...A WEAKER DENNIS BACK OVER WATER...NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL PROVINCES FROM SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 090847 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12 NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY... IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF LAND...IF AT ALL. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STILL CONTROLLED MAINLY BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND EVEN THE UK MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE FARTHER WEST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVING ALL THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE COAST OF THE 34-KNOT WINDS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 25.3N 84.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 29.8N 87.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 38.0N 89.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/0600Z 39.1N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 090847 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.5N 85.7W 50 X X X 50 CEDAR KEY FL 11 7 X X 18 29.8N 87.1W 4 30 X X 34 ST MARKS FL 4 20 X X 24 32.5N 88.5W X 4 21 X 25 APALACHICOLA FL 14 19 X X 33 MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL 8 26 X X 34 MARATHON FL 15 X X X 15 PENSACOLA FL 1 30 1 X 32 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 X 1 2 MOBILE AL X 24 4 X 28 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 1 1 4 GULFPORT MS X 19 5 X 24 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 3 4 BURAS LA X 15 2 X 17 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 9 5 X 14 KEY WEST FL 75 X X X 75 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 3 1 5 MARCO ISLAND FL 19 X X X 19 GULF 29N 85W 31 8 X X 39 FT MYERS FL 17 X X X 17 GULF 29N 87W 17 20 X X 37 VENICE FL 28 X X 1 29 GULF 28N 89W 3 12 X X 15 TAMPA FL 16 1 X X 17 GULF 28N 91W X 1 1 X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 090855 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091130- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED CURRENT WIND INFORMATION UPDATED CURRENT STORM TIDE INFORMATION ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST...ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...OR 28.70 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMAIN IN A SAFE LOCATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED AROUND 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 MPH. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECENTLY RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 72 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MIDDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 68 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL ACCUMULATED SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAS BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTNT84 KNHC 090856 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS ALC003-097-FLC005-033-037-045-065-091-113-123-129-131-MSC045-047- 059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675-750-755-770-775-091500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1004.050709T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-091500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050709T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC017-029-053-075-101-GMZ850-870-091500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050709T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W $$ FLC015-021-027-057-071-081-086-087-103-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031- 032-033-656-657-676-830-853-856-873-876-091500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-091500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-091500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MOB...MFL... ** WTUS82 KTAE 090905 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-091300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 457 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 972 MB OR 28.70 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 900 AM EDT. $$ 8-JAMSKI ** WTUS82 KTAE 090913 *** HLSTAE FLZ034-091300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 510 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 972 MB OR 28.70 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 900 AM EDT. $$ 8-JAMSKI ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090917 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...UN DENNIS DEBIL REGRESA AL AGUA...NO HAY SENALES DE FORTALECIMIENTO TODAVIA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO AL NORESTE DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA DESMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...Y CIENFUEGOS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE HURACANNPARA CUBA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA TODAS LAS PROVINCIAS DESDE SANCTI SPIRITUS HACIA EL ESTE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y LA PROVINCIA DE PINAR DEL RIO. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA HA SIDO EXTENDIDA HACIA EL NORTE AL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FOLRIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH AL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDOS PARA PORCIONES DE ESTA AREA EN HORAS TEMPRANAS DEL DIA DE HOY. A LS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC..SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITANA Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.9 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS...135 KM AL SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 525 MILLAS...845 KM...AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 1 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 972 MILIBARAS...28.70 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA HOY. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...23.9 NORTE...82.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...972 MILIBARAS. SERA EMITIDA UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EDT Y AL S 9 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 090927 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091300- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 518 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERIOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 972 MB OR 28.70 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 900 AM EDT. $$ 8-JAMSKI ** WTUS82 KTBW 090933 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-100345- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 535 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAD MOVED NORTH OF CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 626 IS IN EFFECT FOR MANATEE...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...DE SOTO...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM... ...NEW INFORMATION... DENNIS DECREASED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT MOVED OFF THE CUBAN COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS... SARASOTA...DE SOTO...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM... ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES BY NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH 10 FEET SETS PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER BUT EXPECT RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET CAUSING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM. $$ NOAH ** WTUS84 KMOB 090945 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 445 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND IS TAKING AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...CONECUH... COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR WAYNE...PERRY...GREENE...GEORGE AND STONE IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DESTRUCTION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCED LAST YEAR. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 125 MPH... MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... I-65 WILL BE REVERSED LANED NORTH BEGINNING AT 800 AM SATURDAY. THE REVERSE LANING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM. $$ BEELER/CULLEN ** WTUS82 KMFL 090948 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-091600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS FROM DENNIS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL 9 AM TODAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS URGED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR PERSONS LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS URGED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF U.S. 41...FOR PERSONS LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL IS OPEN AS A SHELTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 67 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO IN EXTREME SOUTH MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PERSONS WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD PROBLEMS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BLOW ONSHORE AROUND MID AFTERNOON TODAY... CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE. THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A LOW TIDE AROUND 10 PM EDT WHICH WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF THE WIND DRIVEN WATER SOMEWHAT. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME BEACH FRONT STRUCTURES AND PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST AROUND 430 AM EDT SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME ANOTHER STORM TIDE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING TIDES ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 11 AM TODAY WITH STORM TIDE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF SOME BEACH FRONT STRUCTURES AND BEACH ACCESS ROUTES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE... MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE LAND AREAS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT FLAMINGO IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES AREAS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND LAST MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS SPIRAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 57 MPH...WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY... AND GLADES COUNTIES...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THROUGH TODAY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING FINALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH... FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SECURED THEIR BOATS AND ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM LEAVING SAFE HARBOR TODAY ON EITHER COAST. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES TODAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. SEAS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES ALL DAY TODAY LASTING INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... OVERNIGHT REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN METRO MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH HAS FALLEN IN THE NAPLES AREA AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BUT MUCH MORE IS EXPECTED AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... QUICK FORMING FAST MOVING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ANYWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS FOR MOST OF TODAY WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT54 KNHC 090952 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 6 AM EDT...10800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 091008 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091600- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A WEAKER DENNIS BACK OVER WATER... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES... ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...AND TANGIPAHOA AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND INCREASING TIDES...DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 525 SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE- STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...WIND IMPACTS.... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE... BECAUSE HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STORM SURGE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 091014 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091130- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 615 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE ROADWAYS FROM YOUR PLACE OF SAFETY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS......HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS IN PREPAREDNESS SECTION ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST...ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 972 MB...OR 28.70 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE CITY OF KEY WEST ADVISES ALL RESIDENTS NOT TO VENTURE OUT ONTO THE STREETS. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXIST INCLUDING COASTAL OVERWASH...FALLEN TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES...AND EVEN SOME DOWNED AND NONFUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS. TO REPORT TREES THAT ARE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES OR DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE CITY OF KEY WEST...PLEASE CALL 809-1108. IF YOU HAVE AN ACTUAL EMERGENCY...DIAL 911...AS THE KEY WEST 911 SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OPERATE NORMALLY. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED AROUND 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 MPH. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECENTLY RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 72 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MIDDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 68 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL ACCUMULATED SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAS BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 730 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KMFL 091040 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-091600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED RAINFALL TOTALS AND STORM DISTANCE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 639 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS FROM DENNIS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 6 AM INCLUDE ALMOST 5 INCHES IN THE IMMOKALEE AREA OF NORTH COLLIER COUNTY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL 9 AM TODAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS URGED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR PERSONS LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS URGED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF U.S. 41...FOR PERSONS LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND SPECIAL NEEDS PERSONS. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL IS OPEN AS A SHELTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 67 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO IN EXTREME SOUTH MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PERSONS WITH POTENTIAL FLOOD PROBLEMS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BLOW ONSHORE AROUND MID AFTERNOON TODAY... CAUSING WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE. THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A LOW TIDE AROUND 10 PM EDT WHICH WILL LESSEN THE IMPACT OF THE WIND DRIVEN WATER SOMEWHAT. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME BEACH FRONT STRUCTURES AND PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST AROUND 430 AM EDT SUNDAY. AT THAT TIME ANOTHER STORM TIDE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING TIDES ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 11 AM TODAY WITH STORM TIDE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF SOME BEACH FRONT STRUCTURES AND BEACH ACCESS ROUTES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE... MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE LAND AREAS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT FLAMINGO IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES AREAS WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND LAST MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS SPIRAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 57 MPH...WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY... AND GLADES COUNTIES...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS THROUGH TODAY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING FINALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH... FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SECURED THEIR BOATS AND ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM LEAVING SAFE HARBOR TODAY ON EITHER COAST. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES TODAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. SEAS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES ALL DAY TODAY LASTING INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY INCLUDE NEARLY 5 INCHES IN THE IMMOKALEE AREA OF NORTH COLLIER COUNTY AND OVER 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF WESTERN HENDRY COUNTY. REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MUCH MORE IS EXPECTED AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... QUICK FORMING FAST MOVING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ANYWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS FOR MOST OF TODAY WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT34 KNHC 091056 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...DENNIS RESTRENGTHENING...BACK TO CATEGORY TWO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE REACHED 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. KEY WEST HAS EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 74 MPH...HURRICANE FORCE. SOMBRERO KEY...AN ELEVATED PLATFORM NEAR MARATHON FLORIDA...REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 88 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 091059 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 700 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... TORNADO WATCH 627 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH 4 PM. THE CORE OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS... SARASOTA...DE SOTO...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM... ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES BY NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IN ARCADIA HAS REPORTED 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND VENICE HAS HAD 1.93 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH 10 FEET SETS PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER BUT EXPECT RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET CAUSING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK/NOAH ** WTUS82 KEYW 091114 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-091330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 715 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...REMAIN IN SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED... ...DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO THE ROADWAYS FROM YOUR PLACE OF SAFETY... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS......HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS IN PREPAREDNESS SECTION UPDATED CURRENT WIND...STORM TIDE AND MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 969 MB...OR 28.61 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT TO VENTURE OUT ONTO THE STREETS AT THIS TIME. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXIST INCLUDING SOME FALLEN TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES...AND EVEN SOME DOWNED AND NON FUNCTIONING TRAFFIC SIGNALS. TO REPORT TREES THAT ARE DOWNED ACROSS POWER LINES OR DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE CITY OF KEY WEST...PLEASE CALL 809-1108. THE KEY WEST 911 SYSTEM IS FUNCTIONING NORMALLY AND SHOULD BE USED ONLY IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ONE AND A HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST AND SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT. STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH A MAXIMUM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FEET EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED NEAR 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 65 MPH. THE PEAK WIND GUST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS 74 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...BUT WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY. IN THE LOWER KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND SIGNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MIDDAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT RECENTLY RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 72 KNOTS...WITH A RECENT WIND GUST OF 68 KNOTS RECORDED AT SAND KEY. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 930 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 091127 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS FORTALECIENDOSE NUEVAMENTE...DE NUEVO CATEGORIA DOS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO AL NORESTE DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE HACIA EL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...Y CIENFUEGOS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y LA PROVINCIA DE PINAR DEL RIO. AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA CUBA PUDIERAN SER DESCONTINUADOS MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH AL SUR. SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITANA Y EL LAGO PONCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 7 AM EDT...1100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.2 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS ESTAN COMENZANDO A INCREMENTAR NUEVAMENTE Y HAN ALCANZADO 105 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM. KEY WEST HA EXPERIMENTADO RAFAGAS DE 74 MPH...FUERZA DE HURACAN. SOMBRERO KEY...UNA PLATAFORMA ELEVADA CERCA DE MARATHON FLORIDA...REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN DE 74 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 84 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 969 MILIBARAS...28.61 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA CENTRAL. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA HOY. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA Y SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM AST...24.1 NORTE...83.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...969 MILIBARAS. SERA EMITIDA UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 091135 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-091530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 730 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 627 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE... CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH... LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION... TORNADO WATCH 627 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH 4 PM. THE CORE OF HURRICANE DENNIS IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO... HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY... MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...SARASOTA AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM ...STORM LOCATION... AT 7 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS AND 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND HAVE REACHED 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THAT PORTION OF THE STORM WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING THOUGH THE DAY. A TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN BRADENTON AND ST PETERSBURG. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES BY NOON...OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE NATURE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A STRONG RAINBAND IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND DAMAGE REPORTED IN BRANDON AND PINELLAS PARK. A 44 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN PALM HARBOR AT 715 AM. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATER TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECT TO RISE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE EVENING FOR FORT MYERS...AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY...AND AROUND 3 AM FOR CEDAR KEY. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER NORTH AND INLAND OVER SUMTER...POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IN ARCADIA HAS REPORTED 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...VENICE HAS REPORTED 1.93 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT AND FORT MYERS HAS REPORTED 2.14 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH 10 FOOT SETS PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING WEATHER BUT EXPECT RESIDUAL WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET CAUSING STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 1100 AND 1130 AM OR EARLIER SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ SANDRIK/NOAH ** WTNT54 KNHC 091148 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 091153 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-091500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 653 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA....OR ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALABAMA GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE STORM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS. IF THE POWER OUTAGES LAST FOR ANY DURATION AND A GENERATOR IS NECESSARY...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT GENERATOR USE INDOORS CAN BE DEADLY DUE TO THE CARBON MONOXIDE GAS PRODUCED. USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OPERATING GENERATORS INDOORS AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE VENTILATION FOR THE MACHINE. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. MORE DETAILED TIME...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH WILL BE PROVIDED AS THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF DENNIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS LED TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS WILL AGGRAVATE RIVER CONDITIONS. RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. && LINHARES ** WTUS84 KMOB 091158 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 700 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...CONECUH... COVINGTON AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR WAYNE... PERRY...GREENE...GEORGE AND STONE IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE OR WATCH LOCAL TV FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AGAIN CHECK LOCAL TV FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DESTRUCTION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCED LAST YEAR. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 125 MPH... MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTER OF DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... LANE REVERSAL OF I-65 WILL BEGIN AT 800 AM TODAY. THE REVERSE LANING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON EXIT (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 AM. $$ BEELER/CULLEN