** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT34 KNHC 090048 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING HAVANA AND MATANZAS IN WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES ... 75 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR HAVANA AND MATANZAS AND EMERGE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 160 FEET. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090059 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 PM EDT VIERNES 8 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...PELGROSO HURACAN MAYOR DENNIS ACERCANDOSE A HAVANA Y MATANZAS EN CUBA OCCIDENTAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. LAS PORCIONES ORENTALES DEL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEAN DESCONTGINUADOS MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. UN AVISO DE TROMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFCTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CAYO ANCLOTE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL CAYO ANCLOTE AL NORTE HASTA AL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 9 PM EDT...0100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 81.7 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM AL ESTE SURESTE DE HAVANA CUBA...Y COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KM...AL SUR DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBERA SALIR DE LA COSTA NORCENTRAL DE CUBA DURANTE LAS HORAS DEL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 3 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE CUBA... PERO SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE COMO UN HURACAN MAYOR CUANDO SALGA Y LLEGUE A LAS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA Y A LA PARTE SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. LOS VIENTOS CONTINUAN AUMENTANDO EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA A ESTA HORA...CON UNA ESTACION AUTOMATICA EN EL CAYO SOBRERO REPORTANDO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 59 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 67 MPH EN UN AREA A 160 PIES DE ELEVACION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 957 MILIBARAS...28.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE CUBA ...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. SE ESPERA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR CENTRAL DE CUBA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LAS BAHIAS Y PEQUENOS PUERTOS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM AST...22.8 NORTE...81.7 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...957 MILIBARAS. POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 090102 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 900 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS... ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT MADE AVAILABLE... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 500 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED AS THE STORM CROSSED CUBA...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT TIME TO EVACUATE FROM THE LOWER KEYS. THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS. SEEK SAFE REFUGE AND SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT HAVE BEEN OPENED TO HELP PREVENT UNNECESSARY DEATH OR INJURY OF THOSE EVACUEES UNABLE TO REACH THE MAINLAND. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER ARE CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET...WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE KEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE AT SEA...DO NOT LEAVE PORT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 500 AM. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT THIS EVENING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTNT54 KNHC 090152 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AT 10 PM EDT...0200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 185 KM SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 090214 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1000 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS... ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT MADE AVAILABLE... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED HEADLINES. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 900 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED AS THE STORM CROSSED CUBA...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT TIME TO EVACUATE FROM THE LOWER KEYS. THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS. SEEK SAFE REFUGE AND SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT HAVE BEEN OPENED TO HELP PREVENT UNNECESSARY DEATH OR INJURY OF THOSE EVACUEES UNABLE TO REACH THE MAINLAND. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER ARE CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET...WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE KEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE AT SEA...DO NOT LEAVE PORT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM SATURDAY. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT THIS EVENING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 090233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES HAVANA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR HAVANA AND INTO THE STRIATS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS ON SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE UPON REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH. TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN SQUALLS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIAMI AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090235 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z SAT JUL 09 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z...INLAND POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 84.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.9N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 38.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 090236 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.3N 84.9W 48 X X X 48 CEDAR KEY FL 3 16 1 X 20 28.5N 86.2W 5 26 X 1 32 ST MARKS FL X 18 4 X 22 30.9N 87.5W X 9 14 1 24 APALACHICOLA FL 1 24 2 X 27 MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X 23 4 X 27 MARATHON FL 33 X X X 33 PENSACOLA FL X 14 11 X 25 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 1 X 3 MOBILE AL X 7 14 1 22 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 4 1 1 6 GULFPORT MS X 5 13 1 19 JACKSONVILLE FL X 3 4 1 8 BURAS LA X 5 9 1 15 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 3 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X 2 9 2 13 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X 4 3 7 KEY WEST FL 68 X X X 68 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL 25 1 X X 26 GULF 29N 85W 4 26 1 X 31 FT MYERS FL 22 1 X X 23 GULF 29N 87W 1 25 1 X 27 VENICE FL 27 1 X X 28 GULF 28N 89W X 10 3 X 13 TAMPA FL 14 7 X X 21 GULF 28N 91W X 1 2 1 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 090247 *** TCVAT1 FOUR-E WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTUS82 KEYW 090256 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...THE EVACUATION IS DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS... ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT MADE AVAILABLE... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED HEADLINES. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION MARINE IMPACTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA IN A FEW HOURS...MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND REACHING NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT TIME TO EVACUATE FROM THE LOWER KEYS. THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS. SEEK SAFE REFUGE AND SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN TO HELP PREVENT UNNECESSARY DEATH OR INJURY OF THOSE EVACUEES UNABLE TO REACH THE MAINLAND. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET...WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE VERY NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE ENTIRE KEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...GULF WATERS...AND FLORIDA BAY. IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE AT SEA...DO NOT LEAVE PORT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM SATURDAY. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KTAE 090257 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-090600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1038 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE UPON REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB OR 28.41 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. EXPECT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD AND INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... SATURDAY...LOW 12:52 AM AND 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM PANAMA CITY... SATURDAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA... TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 2 AM EDT. $$ 8-JAMSKI ** WTUS82 KEYW 090258 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...THE EVACUATION IS DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS... ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT MADE AVAILABLE... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED HEADLINES. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION MARINE IMPACTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. WIND IMPACTS. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA IN A FEW HOURS...MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND REACHING NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS NO LONGER SUFFICIENT TIME TO EVACUATE FROM THE LOWER KEYS. THE EVACUATION HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS. SEEK SAFE REFUGE AND SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN TO HELP PREVENT UNNECESSARY DEATH OR INJURY OF THOSE EVACUEES UNABLE TO REACH THE MAINLAND. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET...WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE VERY NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE ENTIRE KEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...GULF WATERS...AND FLORIDA BAY. IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE AT SEA...DO NOT LEAVE PORT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER KEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM SATURDAY. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 130 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTNT84 KNHC 090258 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS ALC003-097-FLC005-033-037-045-065-091-113-123-129-131-MSC045-047- 059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675-750-755-770-775-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC015-021-027-057-071-081-086-087-103-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031- 032-033-656-657-676-830-853-856-873-876-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC017-029-053-075-101-GMZ850-870-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W $$ GMZ054-074-075-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-090300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...EYW...TBW...TAE...MOB...MFL... ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090302 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT VIERNES 8 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS SE DEBILITA HASTA HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A Y LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. LAS PORCIONES ORENTALES DEL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEAN DESCONTGINUADOS DURANTE LA MANANA DEL SABADO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDOS PARA PORCIONES DE ESTA AREA DURANTE LA MANANA DEL SABADO. UN AVISO DE TROMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFCTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CAYO ANCLOTE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL A GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO LA METROPOLIS DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL CAYO ANCLOTE AL NORTE HASTA AL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.1 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KM AL ESTE DE HAVANA CUBA...Y COMO A 110 MILLAS...180 KM...AL SUR DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.,,Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO PASARA CERCA DE HAVANA Y ENTRARA A LOS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...Y LUEGO CERCA DE DRY TORTUGAS EN LA MANANA DEL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALECERA NUEVAMENTE EMERGIENDO COMO UN HURACAN MAYOR CUANDO LLEGUE A LAS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA . LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. KEY WEST EN LA FLORIDA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 44 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 54 MPH. VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN OCURREN EN TURBONADAS TAN DISTANTE COMO EL AREA DE MIAMI. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR CENTRAL DE CUBA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LAS BAHIAS Y PEQUENOS PUERTOS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...23.0 NORTE...82.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDOS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1 AM Y LAS 3 AM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 090308 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 DENNIS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND IS APPROACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D SHOW SOME DEGRADATION OF THE EYE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH DOPPLER WINDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TIGHT INNER CORE. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DOPPLER WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE MARGIN FOR ERROR ON BOTH THE WINDS AND THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNSTEADY 310/12. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST. LARGE- SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD... WHICH SHOULD KEEP DENNIS ON A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED BETWEEN LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WHILE THE UKMET REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSENSUS MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN PASCAGOULA AND FT. WALTON BEACH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO MATCH THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION IN THE FIRST 24 HR AND TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS FROM 24-48 HR. DENNIS SHOULD BE OVER WATER SHORTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...AND THAT IS FOLLOWED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH BRINGS DENNIS BACK TO 110 KT IN 24 HR AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DENNIS COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. 34 KT WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE INCREASED ON THE BASIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE IS AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA WAITING FOR DENNIS TO EMERGE. HOWEVER... THE AIRCRAFT IS EXPERIENCING MAJOR COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AND ONLY LIMITED DATA CAN BE TRANSMITTED AT THIS MOMENT. A VORTEX MESSAGE MAY BE AVAILABLE ONCE DENNIS MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 23.0N 82.1W 95 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 09/1200Z 24.4N 83.4W 100 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 10/0000Z 26.3N 84.9W 110 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 86.2W 110 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 87.5W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0000Z 38.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/0000Z 39.0N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090309 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z SAT JUL 09 2005 ...CORRECT 96 AND 120 HR STATUS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z...INLAND POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 84.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.9N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 38.0N 89.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 39.0N 85.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 090313 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091000- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1015 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS WEAKENS SOME AS IT MOVES ACROSS CUBA... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES... ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...AND TANGIPAHOA AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH AND INCREASING TIDES...DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING...SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST. DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE DENNIS HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS CUBA...IT IS EXPECTED TO RE INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...WIND IMPACTS.... FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE DENNIS MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE... BECAUSE HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...DAMAGING STORM SURGE IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STORM SURGE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DENNIS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL ACTION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 AM SATURDAY. $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 090336 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-100345- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1136 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEY IN PINELLAS COUNTY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ANCLOTE KEY IN PASCO COUNTY TO SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY COUNTY... ...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 626 IS IN EFFECT FOR MANATEE...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...DE SOTO...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS IS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO 110 MILES AN HOUR...AS IT MOVED OVER LAND...HOWEVER DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGHTEN OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ANCLOTE KEY NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ANCLOTE KEY TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA... DE SOTO...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY... ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTIES BY NOON SATURDAY...AND OVER PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES SATURDAY BY EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY...WITH THE HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY COAST...MID AFTERNOON ALONG SARASOTA COUNTY...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE MANATEE...HILLSBOROUGH...AND PINELLAS COUNTY COAST. WATER LEVELS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED FROM PASCO COUNTY TO CITRUS COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN LEVY COUNTY. THE HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED ON SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA NEAR THE COAST...TO 3 TO 5 INCHES AROUND THE GREATER TAMPA BAY AREA...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND OVER INLAND COUNTIES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK DENNIS TAKES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY AND SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO 18 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH 10 FEET SETS PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 5 AND 530 AM SATURDAY MORNING. $$ ** WTNT54 KNHC 090353 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 12 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 12 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 15 MILES...25 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 090400 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-091000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1130 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...PALM BEACH... HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES...AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF DENNIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PRODUCING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 219 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE. COLLIER COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF U.S. 41 AND FOR THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES AND WITH SPECIAL NEEDS IN THE AFFECTED AREA. PALMETTO RIDGE HIGH SCHOOL HAS BEEN OPENED AS A SHELTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD RUSH A PREPARATIONS OR REMAIN INDOOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ALONG THE GULF COAST OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A MAXIMUM IN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AT NAPLES AND 4 PM AT CAPE SABLE. THE STORM TIDE MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THERE ALSO MAY BE FLOODING OF SOME COASTAL STRUCTURES AND PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST SHOULD LISTEN TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT TONIGHT AND AROUND 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT ACCESS ROADS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE... MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY TONIGHT. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 57 MPH...WILL CONTINUE WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES...GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH PASSING RAIN BANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 68 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 13 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 24 PERCENT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF THIS OCCURRING IS THROUGH SATURDAY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS... MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY THROUGH AROUND NOON SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. SEAS WELL IN EXCESS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FEET POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PALM BEACH, GLADES, HENDRY AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MIAMI- DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS SPIRAL BANDS CIRCULATING ABOUT HURRICANE DENNIS COULD ALLOW THE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... RAIN BANDS SPIRALING AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS THE MOST FAVORED FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE TORNADO WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. THEREFORE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER AND TAKE SHELTER IF A TORNADO IS SIGHTED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PS ** WTUS84 KMOB 090419 *** HLSMOB ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-090800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...HURRICANE DENNIS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AND TAKE AIM ON THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR ALABAMA COASTS... ON SUNDAY AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SHELTERS ARE BEING OPENED IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT...WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS ORDERING EVACUATIONS. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN YOUR AREA. IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE...DO SO. EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DONT ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC...OBEY ALL EVACUATION ORDERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR NEAR NOON ON SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM DENNIS...COULD RESULT IN A STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET IN AND NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR DESTRUCTION ALONG COASTAL AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HURRICANE IVAN PRODUCED LAST YEAR. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER... WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH WINDS AROUND 120 MPH...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH DENNIS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL AND TRACKS INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASED AS DENNIS APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ...NEW INFORMATION... I-65 WILL BE ONE WAYED NORTH BEGINNING AT 800 AM SATURDAY. THE ONE WAYING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS. WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 AM. BEELER $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090454 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 ...EYE OF DENNIS MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AFTER CROSSING HAVANA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE KEY WEST RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST JUST NORTH OF THE CITY OF HAVANA OR ABOUT ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 090455 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 82.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.07.2005 22.5N 82.0W INTENSE 12UTC 09.07.2005 24.2N 83.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 26.0N 85.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 28.0N 87.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 30.3N 87.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.07.2005 32.7N 89.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 35.0N 89.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 36.9N 88.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 38.0N 87.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 38.2N 86.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 38.0N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090455 ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090507 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT SABADO 9 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL OJO DEL HURACAN DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA FLORIDA DESPUES DE CRUZAR LA HABANA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. UNA GRAN PORCION DEL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SEA DESCONTINUADO PRONTO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DESDE EL RIO STEINHATCHEE AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL. AVISOS DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERAN REQUERIDOS PARA PORCIONES DE ESTA AREA DURANTE LA MANANA DE HOY. UN AVISO DE TROMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE CAYO ANCLOTE AL SUR...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL OESTE HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL A GRAND ISLE...INCLUYENDO LA METROPOLIS DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL CAYO ANCLOTE AL NORTE HASTA AL ESTE DEL RIO STEINHATCHEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA. A LA 1 AM EDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.3 OESTE JUSTO A; NORTE DE LA CIUDAD DE LA HABANA O COMO A 95 MILLAS...150 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS SE DEBE ESTAR ALEJANDO DE CUBA Y MOVINEDOSE HACIA EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE EMERGIENDO COMO UN HURACAN MAYOR A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE EK SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 65 MILLAS... 100 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL CENTRO Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA...Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON ESPERADAS SOBRE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR CENTRAL DE CUBA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LAS BAHIAS Y PEQUENOS PUERTOS. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES ES POSIBLE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y HOY. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM AST...23.3 NORTE...82.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 3 AM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 090511 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-090730- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 100 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE AVAILABLE... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED CURRENT WIND INFORMATION UPDATED TIMING AND HEIGHTS FOR STORM TIDES UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST...JUST NORTH OF THE CITY OF HAVANA...OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA AND BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND REACHING WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE EVACUATION HAD BEEN DISCONTINUED BY MONROE COUNTY OFFICIALS FRIDAY EVENING. YOU ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE REFUGE AND SHELTER IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE. THREE REFUGES OF LAST RESORT ARE OPEN. THEY ARE LOCATED AT KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL IN KEY WEST...STANLEY SWITLICK SCHOOL IN MARATHON...AND CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL AT MILE MARKER 90. NO SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE REFUGES. FOR EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. KEY WEST AIRPORT AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER REMAIN CLOSED. THERE ARE NO FIRE OR RESCUE SERVICES FROM STOCK ISLAND THROUGH MARATHON. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR HIGH TIDE THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...AND ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. STORM SURGE...WHICH IS THE INCREASE IN WATER LEVEL ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...IN THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. DRY TORTUGAS MAY EXPERIENCE STORM SURGE UP TO 6 FEET. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECENTLY RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 62 MPH. THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. EXPECT SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND DAMAGE TO TREES TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STRAITS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS...ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 18 FEET. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS HAS AVERAGED FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 900 AM THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR DETECTED ON RADAR...A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 330 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTUS82 KTAE 090553 *** HLSTAE ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-090930- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 152 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM EDT...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED BY THE KEY WEST RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST...OR ABOUT ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE DENNIS AWAY FROM CUBA...AND BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB OR 28.41 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST FROM DOG ISLAND AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND EVENTUALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK OF DENNIS TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COULD RECEIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE SWATH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WESTWARD AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA MAY SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...STORM TIDES WILL BE EXTREME OVER THE PANHANDLE COAST. SURGES FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE. EXPOSED BARRIER ISLAND AND PENINSULAS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE LARGE DAMAGING WAVE ACTION AND EROSION. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY...LOW 12:22 PM...HIGH 8:07 AM AND 5:18 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:14 AM AND 1:09 PM...HIGH 8:22 AM AND 6:07 PM. PORT SAINT JOE... TODAY...HIGH 12:19 PM...LOW 10:49 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:40 PM...LOW 10:51 PM. PANAMA CITY... TODAY...HIGH 11:46 AM...LOW 10:29 PM. SUNDAY...HIGH 12:07 AM...LOW 10:31 PM. DESTIN... TODAY...LOW 12:50 AM...HIGH 12:16 PM. SUNDAY...LOW 1:00 AM...HIGH 12:37 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND WINDS. ...TORNADO THREAT... TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA...TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS NORMALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF REQUESTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 530 AM EDT. $$ 8-JAMSKI ** WTNT54 KNHC 090554 *** TCEAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005 AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA $$