** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT64 KNHC 081225 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 825 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2005 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN... JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 081240 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED HEADLINES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 950 MB...OR 28.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. STORM TIDES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KEYW 081350 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081530- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 945 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...ALL HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED HEADLINES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 950 MB...OR 28.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MONROE COUNTY. FOR SHELTER INFORMATION AND OTHER EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUSES LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 1130 AM TODAY. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. STORM TIDES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER/DEVANAS ** WTNT64 KNHC 081352 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 825 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...CORRECTED DAY AND TIME IN HEADER... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN... JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 081434 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DENNIS NOW A STRONGER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM... WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WHILE SOME WOBBLING HAS OCCURRED...AS IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.4 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 081434 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z FRI JUL 08 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 081435 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.5N 83.6W 49 X X X 49 VENICE FL 8 17 X X 25 26.5N 85.0W 6 26 X X 32 TAMPA FL 1 17 2 X 20 28.4N 86.2W X 13 10 1 24 CEDAR KEY FL X 9 8 1 18 MUCM 214N 779W 21 X X X 21 ST MARKS FL X 2 14 3 19 MUCF 221N 805W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 15 2 21 MUSN 216N 826W 34 X X X 34 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 16 3 21 MUHA 230N 824W 68 X X X 68 PENSACOLA FL X X 13 7 20 MUAN 219N 850W 3 X X X 3 MOBILE AL X X 9 9 18 MARATHON FL 43 X X X 43 GULFPORT MS X X 7 10 17 MIAMI FL 9 2 1 X 12 BURAS LA X X 8 7 15 W PALM BEACH FL 2 4 X 1 7 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 4 10 14 FT PIERCE FL 1 4 2 X 7 NEW IBERIA LA X X 1 8 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 4 3 1 8 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 3 5 2 10 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 6 4 10 GULF 29N 85W X 11 11 1 23 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X 4 16 1 21 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X 1 11 3 15 KEY WEST FL 55 X X X 55 GULF 28N 91W X X 3 5 8 MARCO ISLAND FL 25 3 X 1 29 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL 15 9 X 1 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 081455 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR CAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA. THE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING QUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS CUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. NO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.4N 79.9W 130 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W 110 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W 115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF 36HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W 115 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 081455 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-082130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS BEEN PARALLELING THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH MAKING DENNIS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER OF DENNIS PASSES OUR LATITUDE...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER LEG OF THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THERE. THE LATEST TRACK AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST EFFECTS MAY BE LESS ON THE SUNCOAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY OCCURRING WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN FEEDER BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SHOULD DENNIS TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST...MUCH OF THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STORM SURGE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK DENNIS TAKES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PERPETUATE FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 5 AND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ BSG ** WTNT64 KNHC 081457 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 081501 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...REMNANTS OF CINDY ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...TREKKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COASTLINE...SOUTH THROUGH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT 11 AM EDT...15Z...THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF SALISBURY MARYLAND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM EDT ...PENNSYLVANIA... KEFFERS 4.81 COLUMBIA 4.18 SCHUYLKILL 3.97 WINFIELD TWP 3.75 EPHRATA 3.14 LANCASTER 3.01 ...MARYLAND... SALISBURY 5.59 BETWEEN 2-8 AM EDT WORCESTER 5.05 CENTENNIAL 3.54 BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AP 2.14 ...VIRGINIA... UPPER SHERANDO 6.13 CHARLOTTE 5.50 PAGE 5.44 BIG MEADOWS 5.24 MADISON 4.75 NETHERS 4.75 LEESBURG/LIMESTONE BRANCH 4.66 LOVETTSVILLE/CATOCTIN CK 4.56 SHENANDOAH 4.52 WASHINGTON/DULLES AP 3.54 DANVILLE 3.12 RICHMOND 3.08 ...WEST VIRGINIA... WILLIAMSON 3.75 KEENEY KNOW LOOKOUT 3.20 SUMMIT POINT 3.16 MEADOW BLUFF 2.76 BOARDHOUSE HOLLOW 2.56 MIKES KNOB TOWER 2.40 ELKINS 2.26 LICK KNOB 2.24 ...NORTH CAROLINA... HICKORY 3.96 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR PLEASANT GARDENS 3.20 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ASHEVILLE 2.52 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR NEEDMORE 2.15 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR CANTON 1.91 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE/REEDY RIVER 4.64 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 4.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LYMAN 3.93 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LIBERTY 3.57 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR OCONEE COUNTY APT 3.45 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ROBBINSVILLE 1.95 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...TENNESSEE... KNOXVILLE 2.55 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.59 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWNAN 5.75 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR JEFFERSON 5.63 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.24 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CAMDEN 4.86 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THEODORE 3.54 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SHELBY 2.23 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR PASCAGOULA 6.61 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GULFPORT 6.46 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GRAND ISLE 6.37 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SLIDELL 6.29 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THE REMNANTS OF CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...38.4 NORTH...76.0 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 19 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. ROTH/PETERSEN/FRIES $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 081505 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ054-074-075-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KEYW 081507 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081830- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...ALL HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MONROE COUNTY. FOR SHELTER INFORMATION AND OTHER EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT...AND FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST WILL CEASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 1130 AM TODAY AND AT 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. STORM TIDES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ L. KASPER/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KMFL 081528 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-082200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...FIRST MAJOR RAINBAND BRUSHING EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS FROM HURRICANE DENNIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE... COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS NOW AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT PERSONS IN HIGHLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE PLANS TO MOVE TO DRYER AREAS IN CASE A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS CALLED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE PERSONS DEPENDENT ON POWER SUCH AS THOSE USING OXYGEN. ONE SHELTER HAS BEEN OPENED TO ACCOMMODATE THESE PEOPLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. AS DENNIS APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE LIKELY REACHING A MAXIMUM AROUND NOON. AT NAPLES...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT. AT CAPE SABLE...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 4 PM EDT. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 TO 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT AS DENNIS MOVES AWAY THE EFFECT SHOULD BE LESSENING. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT STRUCTURES AND ACCESS. RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 57 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS AND ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 63 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 20 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 7 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 30 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 4 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER IS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD COULD WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXTREME SOUTH PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE...ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND WESTERN COLLIER COUNTIES ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR TORNADOES. TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES ARE USUALLY QUICK FORMING AND LAST ONLY A SHORT WHILE...AND ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. THESE SPIRAL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ LUSHINE ** WTCA44 TJSJ 081540 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT VIERNES 8 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS ES AHORA UN HURACAN MAS FUERTE DE CATEGORIA 4 Y SE ACERCA A LA COSTA SUR-CENTRAL DE CUBA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA CAYMAN BRAC Y LA ISLA LITTLE CAYMAN. ESTA EN EFECTO TAMBIEN UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE AL SUR DE PLAYA DORADA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TROMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE PLAYA BONITA HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.9 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...205 KM AL OESTE DE CAMAGUEY CUBA Y COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL OJO DE DENNIS ALCANZARA A CUBA CENTRAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. AUNQUE HA OCURRIDO UN POCO DE FLUCTUACION EN MOVIMIENTO...COMO ES TIPICO EN UN HURACAN TAN PODEROSO...SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS CONTINUE MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEBERA TOCAR TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR-CENTRAL DE CUBA ESTA TARDE. LOS DATOS DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO HASTA CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN PODEROSO DE CATEGORIA 4 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE CUBA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE COMO UN HURACAN PODEROSO CUANDO SALGA Y LLEGUE A LAS ESTRECHOS DE LA FLORIDA Y A LA PARTE SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS...85 DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 938 MILIBARAS...27.70 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE CUBA ...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA DEL SURESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA...JAMAICA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON PROBABLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR DE CERCA DE 20 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PENINSULA SUR DE FLORIDA HASTA EL SABADO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...21.4 NORTE... 79.9 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...938 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITISA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACAMES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 081705 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z FRI JUL 08 2005 CORRECTED THE 72-HOUR 34-KT WIND RADII IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 83.6W...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.4N 86.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.0N 88.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 39.5N 84.8W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 081722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 79.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.07.2005 20.9N 79.4W INTENSE 00UTC 09.07.2005 22.2N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 23.8N 83.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 25.2N 85.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 27.2N 86.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 29.6N 88.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 31.6N 89.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 33.6N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 35.7N 91.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 36.5N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 37.7N 89.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.07.2005 37.2N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.07.2005 37.2N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081722 ** WTNT34 KNHC 081749 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DENNIS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR NEAR CIENFUEGOS CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. WHILE SOME WOBBLING HAS OCCURRED...AS IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THIS EVENING. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH DENNIS IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 081759 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-082130- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...ALL HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED... ...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REMAIN UNTIL STORM PASSAGE... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT ENTERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND ON THIS COURSE THE CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 941 MB...OR 27.79 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. NO SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MONROE COUNTY. FOR SHELTER INFORMATION AND OTHER EMERGENCY INFORMATION CALL THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY HOTLINE AT 800-955-5504. MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS CLOSED TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT...AND FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST WILL CEASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 330 PM THIS AFTERNOON. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 FEET OF SURGE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. STORM TIDES WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE KEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL STORM PASSAGE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT SAFE TO BE AT SEA...DO NOT LEAVE PORT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE DURATION OF THE HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE HURRICANE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS