** WTUS82 KEYW 080608 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080930- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED DAY REFERENCES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS FOR INCREASED RAINFALL THREAT. UPDATED WIND AND STORM SURGE FLOOD IMPACTS TO INCLUDE TIMING. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 345 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 955 MB...OR 28.20 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUSLINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. STORM TIDES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080614 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT VIERNES 8 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL FUERTE HURACAN DENNIS AZOTA EL ESTE DE CUBA... ...EL OJO AHORA SOBRE EL AGUA ESTA MOVIENDOSE PARALELO A LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE AL SUR DE PLAYA DORADA. UNA VIGILANCIA SDE TROMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE PLAYA BONITA HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODA JAMAICA Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. AVISOS EN JAMAICA PODRIAN SER CANCELADOS MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 78.5 OESTE...80 MILLAS...125 KM AL SUR SUROESTE CERCA DE CAMAGUEY Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL SURESTE DE TRINIDAD CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL OJO DE DENNIS ALCANZARA A CUBA CENTRAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL MIENTRAS EL CENTRO DE DENNIS PERMANEZCA SOBRE AGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. CAMAGUEY...CUBA REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 67 MPH...107 KM/HR VARIAS HORAS ATRAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 955 MILIBARAS...28.20 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...CON 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA DEL SURESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR DE CERCA DE 20 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...20.3 NORTE... 78.5 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 955 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 080705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-07-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTCU31 MUHA 080730UTC *** AVISO INTERMEDIO NRO.11A HURACAN DENNIS OFICINA DE VIGILANCIA Y PRONOSTICO DIRECCION SERVICIOS AERONAUTICOS ECASA SA. 0800UTC JULIO 8 2005 EL HURACAN DENNIS 4 FUE LOCALIZADO A LAS 0600UTC EN LOS 20.3 GRADOS DE LATITUD NORTE Y LOS 78.5 GRADOS DE LONGITUD OESTE ESTA POSICION LO SITUA A UNAS 75MN..(125KMS) AL SSW DE CAMAGUEY Y A UNAS 120MN.. 215KMS AL SE DE LA CIUDAD DE TRINIDAD EN LA PROVINCIA DE SANTI SPIRITUS. DENNIS SE MUEVE EN UN RUMBO PROXIMO AL NW (320 GRADOS)A RAZON DE 13KT..(24KPH) Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE MANTENGA EL MISMO RUMBO Y VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EN LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA LLEVARA A DENNIS AL SUR DE LA PROVINCIA DE SANTI SPIRITUS EN LAS PRIMERAS HORAS DE LA TARDE. DENNIS TIENE VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DEL ORDEN DE LOS 120KT (215KPH)CON RACHAS SUPERIORES ,SE PREVEE UN LIGERO INCREMENTO EN ORGANIZACION E INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS SE MUEVA SOBRE EL MAR. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN EN UN RADIO FUERA DEL CENTRO DE 47MN (85KMS) Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HASTA 123MN (220KMS)Y SU PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 955HPA. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS ESTAN AFECTANDO LA REGION SUR DESDE GRANMA HASTA CAMAGUEY Y LOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN AFECTANDO EL SUR DE SANTIAGO DE CUBA Y CIEGO DE AVILA Y AFECTARAN AL RESTO DE LA REGION CENTRAL A MEDIDA QUE DENNIS SE APROXIME MAS A LA COSTA SUR. LAS BANDAS DE ALIMENTACION DE DENNIS ESTAN AFECTANDO EL SUR DE LAS PROVINCIAS ORIENTALES Y CAMAGUEY CON LLUVIAS FUERTES,CHUBASCOS Y TORMENTAS ELECTRICAS QUE PUEDEN LLEGAR A SER LOCALMENTE INTENSAS,ESTA SITUACION SE MOVERA AL OESTE A MEDIDA QUE DENNIS SE APROXIME AL SUR DE LAS PROVINCIAS CENTRALES. DEBIDO A LA POSICION Y FUTURA TRAYECTORIA DE ESTE CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED KATLYTAA ** WTNT24 KNHC 080840 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0900Z FRI JUL 08 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 70SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 82.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.8N 84.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 36.6N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080840 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION ALONG ITS PATH. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.7N 79.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.0N 80.7W 120 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.8N 82.8W 115 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 09/1800Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 27.7N 85.7W 115 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 31.5N 88.0W 80 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/0600Z 36.6N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080840 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DANNY FURY AIMS AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHER FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080841 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.8N 82.8W 50 X X X 50 FT MYERS FL 7 18 X X 25 25.8N 84.5W 5 27 X 1 33 VENICE FL 2 22 1 X 25 27.7N 85.7W X 13 10 1 24 TAMPA FL X 15 5 X 20 MUCM 214N 779W 72 X X X 72 CEDAR KEY FL X 5 11 2 18 MUCF 221N 805W 80 X X X 80 ST MARKS FL X 1 11 6 18 MUSN 216N 826W 32 X X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 15 4 20 MUHA 230N 824W 55 X X X 55 PANAMA CITY FL X X 14 6 20 MUAN 219N 850W 3 2 X X 5 PENSACOLA FL X X 7 11 18 MYGF 266N 787W X 1 1 X 2 MOBILE AL X X 4 13 17 MARATHON FL 41 X X X 41 GULFPORT MS X X 3 13 16 MIAMI FL 11 6 X X 17 BURAS LA X X 4 11 15 W PALM BEACH FL 2 6 2 X 10 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 11 13 FT PIERCE FL X 6 3 1 10 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 9 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 4 5 1 10 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 6 3 11 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 29N 85W X 4 15 3 22 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7 GULF 29N 87W X 1 15 4 20 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X X 9 5 14 KEY WEST FL 48 X X X 48 GULF 28N 91W X X 2 7 9 MARCO ISLAND FL 18 11 X X 29 GULF 28N 93W X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080846 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...TO CORRECT HURRICANE NAME... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS FURY AIMS AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHER FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 080851 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-081230- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ADDED ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 300 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 950 MB...OR 28.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE TODAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. STORM TIDES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH MAXIMUM VALUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE KEYS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT THIS MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ RIZZO/FUTTERMAN ** WTNT33 KWNH 080901 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 05 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES... TREKKING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA... MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GREATER NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA GEORGIA BORDER. AT 5 AM EDT...09Z...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON DC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM EDT ...PENNSYLVANIA... DOYLESTOWN 3.53 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR SCRUB OAK 1.93 WEST HAZELTON 1.58 CAMERON 1.40 LANCASTER 1.13 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR WOODBURY 1.04 ...MARYLAND... BALTIMORE 1.64 COLUMBIA 1.48 ELLICOTT CITY 1.36 ...VIRGINIA... VANSANT 3.56 MANASSAS 3.48 GRUNDY ARPT 2.40 COUNCIL 2.32 DANVILLE 2.24 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR CLIFTON FORGE 2.24 YOST 2.12 NEW CASTLE 1.96 PALMYRA 1.80 COVINGTON 1.52 BLACKSBURG 1.52 BLACK HOLLOW 1.28 ROANOKE 1.06 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR ...WEST VIRGINIA... SHENANDOAH MTN 2.64 CAVE 2.40 BLUEFIELD 1.98 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR BECKLEY 1.33 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR ...KENTUCKY... MIDDLESBORO 1.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR META 1.44 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR VIRGIE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR PRICE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...NORTH CAROLINA... HICKORY 3.96 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR PLEASANT GARDENS 3.20 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ASHEVILLE 2.52 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR NEEDMORE 2.15 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR CANTON 1.91 THROUGH 8 PM EDT THUR ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE/REEDY RIVER 4.64 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 4.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LYMAN 3.93 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LIBERTY 3.57 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR OCONEE COUNTY APT 3.45 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ROBBINSVILLE 1.95 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...TENNESSEE... KNOXVILLE 2.55 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.59 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWNAN 5.75 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR JEFFERSON 5.63 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.24 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CAMDEN 4.86 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THEODORE 3.54 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SHELBY 2.23 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR PASCAGOULA 6.61 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GULFPORT 6.46 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GRAND ISLE 6.37 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SLIDELL 6.29 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THE REMNANTS OF CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...MIDATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...37.9 NORTH...77.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080901 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 8 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA FURIA DEL PELIGROSO HURACAN DENNIS SE DIRIGE HACIA EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE AL SUR DE PLAYA DORADA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TROMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE PLAYA BONITA HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 79.1 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...445 KM AL SURESTE CERCA DE HABANA CUBA Y COMO A 320 MILLAS... 515 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL OJO DE DENNIS ALCANZARA A CUBA CENTRAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE LLEGAR A CUBA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 950 MILIBARAS...28.05 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE CUBA ...CON CANTIDADES LOCALES DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA DEL SURESTE DE CUBA. SE ESPERA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR DE CERCA DE 20 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...20.7 NORTE... 79.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 950 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITISA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACAMES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/ROBERTS $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 080919 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ054-074-075-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-081500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KTBW 080925 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 525 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CUBA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...NEW INFORMATION... FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HURRICANE DENNIS HAS BEEN PARALLELING THE SOUTH CUBA COAST...TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST AS COMPARED TO NORTHWEST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE SKIRTING NORTH OF JAMAICA. THIS WESTWARD JOG...SHOULD IT CONTINUE...MAY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 5 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER OF DENNIS PASSES OUR LATITUDE...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ROTATION OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER LEG OF THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THERE. THE LATEST TRACK AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST EFFECTS MAY BE LESS ON THE SUNCOAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY OCCURRING WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN FEEDER BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SHOULD DENNIS TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST...MUCH OF THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STORM SURGE. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN...BECOMING MOST FREQUENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY. ADDITIONAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS A FINAL BROAD FEEDER BAND PASSES THROUGH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE RISES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 AM THIS MORNING. $$ BSG ** WTUS82 KMFL 080943 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-081600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 542 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 ...PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO FEEL OUTER EFFECTS OF DENNIS LATER TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN PREPARATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL RESIDENTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 5 AM...THE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED STORM SURGE FOR COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE... AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPDATED. PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED AS WELL AS WIND EFFECTS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AT 7 AM EDT. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE... COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DENNIS MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSONS IN COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS NOW AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF COLLIER COUNTY FROM MARCO ISLAND EAST TO EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. HOWEVER...AS DENNIS APPROACHES...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. WHEN THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. AT NAPLES...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 3 PM EDT. AT CAPE SABLE...THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 4 PM EDT. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL CAUSE SOME ROADS TO BE FLOODED...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 TO MARCO ISLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 TO CHOKOLOSKEE. THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 TO 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT AS DENNIS MOVES AWAY THE EFFECT SHOULD BE LESSENING. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE FLOW CAUSED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TIDES OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. AT MIAMI HARBOR...THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM EDT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF BEACH-FRONT STRUCTURES AND ACCESS. RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING. AS DENNIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. FOR THE LAND AREAS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED INLAND. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY 39 TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 61 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 24 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY INCLUDING METROPOLITAN MIAMI...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 34 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 6 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER IS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD COULD WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS ALLOWING EXTRA LINE FOR EXPECTED STORM TIDE OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WET JUNE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND CANALS ARE FULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXTREME SOUTH PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE...ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND WESTERN COLLIER COUNTIES ARE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THESE RAINS AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF HURRICANE DENNIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR TORNADOES. TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED TORNADOES ARE USUALLY QUICK FORMING AND LAST ONLY A SHORT WHILE...AND ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. THESE SPIRAL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO AFFECT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PFOST ** WTNT34 KNHC 081149 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. AT 800AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST... ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$