** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080007 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN MAYOR DENNIS CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE...ACERCANDOSE A CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE. LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS A LO LARGO DE AMBAS COSTAS...DEL ESTE Y OESTE DE LA FLORIDA POSIBLEMENTE SERAN EXTENDIDAS HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL ANOCHECER. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...PARA TODO JAMAICA...Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...Y DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.1 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS... 80 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA MUY CERCA DEL CABO CRUZ DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...Y ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DEL CENTRO DE CUBA EL VIERNES. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE DENNIS HA CONTINUADO FORTALECIENDOSE...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE AL CENTRO DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS DE INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS... 75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. SANTIAGO DE CUBA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 58 MPH CON RAFAGAS HASTA 80 MPH. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 951 MILIBARAS...28.08 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA AL SURESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREASDONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE CERCA DE 20 SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...19.4 NORTE... 77.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...130 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 951 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080007 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN MAYOR DENNIS CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE...ACERCANDOSE A CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE. LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS A LO LARGO DE AMBAS COSTAS...DEL ESTE Y OESTE DE LA FLORIDA POSIBLEMENTE SERAN EXTENDIDAS HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE EN EL ANOCHECER. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...PARA TODO JAMAICA...Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...Y DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.1 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS... 80 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA MUY CERCA DEL CABO CRUZ DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...Y ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DEL CENTRO DE CUBA EL VIERNES. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE DENNIS HA CONTINUADO FORTALECIENDOSE...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE AL CENTRO DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS DE INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS... 75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. SANTIAGO DE CUBA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 58 MPH CON RAFAGAS HASTA 80 MPH. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 951 MILIBARAS...28.08 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA AL SURESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREASDONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE CERCA DE 20 SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...19.4 NORTE... 77.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...130 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 951 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 080010 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA FRIDAY...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA TONIGHT...AND VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 951 MB...OR 28.08 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY NIGHT SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE FRIDAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO VEHICLES AVAILABLE. GREYHOUND BUSLINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...AND AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY NIGHT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS ** WTNT34 KNHC 080237 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...DENNIS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI IS CANCELLED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS FROM THE AFFECTED AREA INDICATE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 080238 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z FRI JUL 08 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI IS CANCELLED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FRIDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 70SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 77.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 79.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 70SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 83.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 84.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 35.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 38.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080239 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 81.2W 48 X X X 48 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 24 1 X 26 24.8N 83.1W 5 29 X X 34 FT MYERS FL X 20 3 1 24 26.8N 84.6W X 14 13 1 28 VENICE FL X 16 8 X 24 MUGM 200N 751W 2 X X X 2 TAMPA FL X 6 13 2 21 MUCM 214N 779W 70 X X X 70 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 14 4 19 MUCF 221N 805W 58 X X X 58 ST MARKS FL X X 10 9 19 MUSN 216N 826W 19 2 X X 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X 14 7 21 MUHA 230N 824W 35 3 X X 38 PANAMA CITY FL X X 11 10 21 MUAN 219N 850W 1 4 1 1 7 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 15 19 MYAK 241N 776W 3 1 X X 4 MOBILE AL X X 2 15 17 MYGF 266N 787W X 2 1 1 4 GULFPORT MS X X 1 15 16 MARATHON FL 20 13 X X 33 BURAS LA X X 1 13 14 MIAMI FL 2 15 1 X 18 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 12 12 W PALM BEACH FL X 9 3 X 12 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7 FT PIERCE FL X 4 6 1 11 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 7 2 11 GULF 29N 85W X X 18 5 23 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 7 4 11 GULF 29N 87W X X 12 9 21 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 4 6 10 GULF 28N 89W X X 5 10 15 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 KEY WEST FL 22 14 X 1 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 080257 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080930- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE TO CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 950 MB...OR 28.05 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE LOCKED DOWN SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE FRIDAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO AVAILABLE VEHICLES. GREYHOUND BUSLINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KTBW 080300 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-080930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LONG BOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO LONG BOAT KEY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT MYERS AREA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...CURRENT RADAR INFORMATION... A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF DENNIS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ARE CURRENTLY EFFECTING CUBA AND JAMAICA. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT WILL WEAKEN AS THE STORM CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PASCO... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. OUTER BANDS OF RAIN WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AFFECTING COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...AND SOME MAIN THOROUGHFARES MAY BE CLOSED. SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL SURPASS BANK FULL. LARGER RIVERS WILL RISE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. ...SHELTER AND ROAD STATUS... PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SHELTER AND ROAD STATUS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. FOR SOME SUGGESTIONS ON PREPARING FOR THE STORM SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT. $$ PRC ** WTUS82 KTBW 080302 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-080930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHING CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY IN MANATEE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEE... LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...POLK...SUMTER... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO LONGBOAT KEY. ...STORM LOCATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT MYERS AREA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...CURRENT RADAR INFORMATION... A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF DENNIS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ARE CURRENTLY EFFECTING CUBA AND JAMAICA. ...WIND IMPACTS... DENNIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT WILL WEAKEN AS THE STORM CONTINUES NORTH INTO THE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BEGIN TO RAISE WATER LEVELS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF DENNIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PASCO... PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. OUTER BANDS OF RAIN WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AFFECTING COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...AND SOME MAIN THOROUGHFARES MAY BE CLOSED. SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL SURPASS BANK FULL. LARGER RIVERS WILL RISE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS DENNIS MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER DENNIS MOVES INLAND AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. ...SHELTER AND ROAD STATUS... PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SHELTER AND ROAD STATUS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. FOR SOME SUGGESTIONS ON PREPARING FOR THE STORM SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT. $$ PRC ** WTNT33 KWNH 080308 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 18 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...FRONTAL WAVE THAT REMAINS OF CINDY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...MARCHING ONWARD TO NEW ENGLAND... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...AND MARYLAND. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA... MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA ...AND MARYLAND UNTIL 3 AM EDT. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASED TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM EDT ...PENNSYLVANIA... DOYLESTOWN 3.53 LANCASTER 1.13 ...VIRGINIA... DANVILLE 2.24 ROANOKE 1.06 ...WEST VIRGINIA... BLUEFIELD 1.98 BECKLEY 1.33 ...KENTUCKY... MIDDLESBORO 1.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR META 1.44 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR VIRGIE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR PRICE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...NORTH CAROLINA... HICKORY 3.96 PLEASANT GARDENS 3.20 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ASHEVILLE 2.52 NEEDMORE 2.15 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR CANTON 1.91 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE/REEDY RIVER 4.64 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 4.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LYMAN 3.93 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LIBERTY 3.57 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR OCONEE COUNTY APT 3.45 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ROBBINSVILLE 1.95 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...TENNESSEE... KNOXVILLE 2.55 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.59 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWNAN 5.75 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR JEFFERSON 5.63 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.24 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CAMDEN 4.86 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THEODORE 3.54 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SHELBY 2.23 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR PASCAGOULA 6.61 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GULFPORT 6.46 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GRAND ISLE 6.37 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SLIDELL 6.29 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MIDATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.6 NORTH...79.5 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080310 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AT 07/2314Z...AND ALSO REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAD DROPPED TO 951 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DENNIS HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THIS AND ON 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...DENNIS IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DENNIS MAY HAVE UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE 9 N MI WIDE EYE SEEN EARLIER IS NOW 16 TO 20 N MI WIDE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 950 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AN ESTIMATE AND COULD WELL BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310-315 AT ABOUT 13 KT. DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER FLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE UKMET TAKING DENNIS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN TAKING DENNIS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT LEFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER. AS DENNIS HAS NOT YET DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...WEST...AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL CUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE CURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF DENNIS SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS LAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH ENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM TO WEAKEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.9N 77.6W 115 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 79.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.0N 81.2W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 83.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.8N 84.6W 110 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/0000Z 35.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 13/0000Z 38.5N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080311 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS SE CONVIERTE EN UN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON...SE EMITEN NUEVOS AVISOS... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA PROMOVIDO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN A UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA Y CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN Y GUANTANAMO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD Y PINAR DEL RIO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE BONITA BEACH...Y A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL SUR DE GOLDEN BEACH. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE BONITA BEACH HASTA LONGBOAT KEY. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DEL SUROESTE DE HAITI HA SIDO CANCELADO. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODO JAMAICA Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. POSIBLEMENTE LOS AVISOS EN JAMAICA SERAN CANCELADOS EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DE HURACAN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...FLORIDA...Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE DENNIS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.6 OESTE O CERCA DE CABO CRUZ Y COMO A 105 MILLAS... 170 KM...AL SUR DE CAMAGUEY CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE DENNIS CERCA O SOBRE EL SURESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL MIENTRAS EL CENTRO DE DENNIS PERMANEZCA SOBRE AGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. REPORTES DE RADIO AFICIONADOS DESDE EL AREA AFECTADA INDICAN EXTENSAS INTERRUPCIONES DE LA ENERGIA ELECTRICA Y DANOS ESTRUCTURALES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 950 MILIBARAS...28.05 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...CON 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA DEL SURESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADA CICLONICA AUN MAYOR DE CERCA DE 20 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...19.9 NORTE... 77.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 950 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 080312 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 18 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...FRONTAL WAVE THAT REMAINS OF CINDY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...MARCHING ONWARD TO NEW ENGLAND... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...AND MARYLAND. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA... MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA ...AND MARYLAND UNTIL 3 AM EDT. AT 11 PM EDT...03Z...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASED TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM EDT ...PENNSYLVANIA... DOYLESTOWN 3.53 LANCASTER 1.13 ...VIRGINIA... DANVILLE 2.24 ROANOKE 1.06 ...WEST VIRGINIA... BLUEFIELD 1.98 BECKLEY 1.33 ...KENTUCKY... MIDDLESBORO 1.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR META 1.44 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR VIRGIE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR PRICE 1.42 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...NORTH CAROLINA... HICKORY 3.96 PLEASANT GARDENS 3.20 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ASHEVILLE 2.52 NEEDMORE 2.15 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR CANTON 1.91 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE/REEDY RIVER 4.64 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 4.61 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LYMAN 3.93 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR LIBERTY 3.57 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR OCONEE COUNTY APT 3.45 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ROBBINSVILLE 1.95 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...TENNESSEE... KNOXVILLE 2.55 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 THROUGH 8 AM EDT THUR CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.59 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 THROUGH 2 PM EDT THUR NEWNAN 5.75 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR JEFFERSON 5.63 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.24 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 THROUGH 5 AM EDT THUR ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CAMDEN 4.86 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR THEODORE 3.54 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SHELBY 2.23 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR PASCAGOULA 6.61 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GULFPORT 6.46 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR GRAND ISLE 6.37 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR SLIDELL 6.29 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 THROUGH 2 AM EDT THUR CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MIDATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.6 NORTH...79.5 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 080325 *** TCVAT1 FOUR-E WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT82 KNHC 080326 *** TCVAT2 BRET WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 .TROPICAL STORM BRET ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT83 KNHC 080326 *** TCVAT3 CINDY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM CINDY ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103- 105-109-MSC045-047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650-655-670-675- 060900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-060900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080327 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080335 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC021-087-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080339 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC021-087-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080341 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC021-087-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080345 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-071500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1100Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ FLC021-087-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-071500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT84 KNHC 080351 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-087-GMZ656-657-676-080900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050708T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-080900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050708T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-080900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050708T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ031-032-033-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KMFL 080353 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-081000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1153 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...DENNIS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLY REQUIRING ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL OTHER RESIDENTS OF SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS SYSTEM ALSO. ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...AND COLLIER COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THIS INCLUDES BOTH COASTAL AS WELL AS INLAND SECTIONS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE... COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER BEFORE LANDFALLING SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS ANYWHERE BETWEEN OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...SHOULD TAKE ANY PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS AT THIS TIME AND HEED THE ADVISE OF THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH...MAXIMUM EXPECTED STORM SURGE IS OF 3 TO 5 FEET PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES CITY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE ONCE THE CENTER OF THE STORM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING THE FLOW ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH TIDE ACROSS THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY BY MID AFTERNOON...THIS COULD RESULT IN MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET PARTICULARLY IF THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE. EARLIER IN THE DAY...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE WATERS TO RECEDE BEFORE THE MAX STORM TIDE MOVES IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT CAN BE DECEIVING AND PEOPLE ARE THEREFORE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE SHORE LINE. ALSO..STORMS TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADS CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE AND/OR THE COAST. ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ONLY 1 TO 2 FEET STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIDE. RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT THE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SURGE CAN CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 39 TO 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES AND ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MIAMI DATE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. SOME OF THESE WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN GUSTS...COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN SMALLER TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE REMINDED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND THE REST OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 74 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 35 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 16 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 53 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 16 PERCENT AND A THERE IS A 4 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...34 TO 64 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WELL OFFSHORE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK. ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...BORDER LINE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OR EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD COULD WORSEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ANYTIME FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA ALSO. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE SURF. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... UNDER THE LOCAL FORECAST TRACK...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS IS NORMALLY THE MOST FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY. IF DENNIS FOLLOWS ITS FORECAST TRACK...THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN BANDS SPIRALING NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING TORNADIC. THEREFORE...WHETHER YOU ARE IN A WARNED AREA OR NOT...YOU SHOULD KEEP MONITORING THE LATEST STATEMENTS COMING FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI AS RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 5 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ PS ** WTNT84 KNHC 080513 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-080900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050708T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC015-027-071-115-GMZ853-856-873-876-080900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050708T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W $$ GMZ054-074-075-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-080900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT80 EGRR 080537 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.07.2005 19.5N 77.3W STRONG 12UTC 08.07.2005 21.1N 79.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 21.9N 82.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.07.2005 23.1N 84.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.07.2005 24.7N 85.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 26.8N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 28.8N 90.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.07.2005 31.6N 92.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 33.7N 93.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 34.5N 95.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 35.2N 96.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 33.7N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 33.2N 97.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.4N 24.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.07.2005 11.4N 24.4W MODERATE 12UTC 08.07.2005 12.2N 25.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 12.8N 28.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 13.3N 31.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 38.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 13.8N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 14.4N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 15.2N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 15.4N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 15.4N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 16.5N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2005 17.2N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080537 ** WTNT34 KNHC 080552 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005 ...SEVERE HURRICANE DENNIS BATTERING EASTERN CUBA...EYE BACK OVER WATER PARALLELING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS ...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST...OR 80 MILES...125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. CAMAGUEY...CUBA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...107 KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$