** WTUS82 KEYW 071803 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-072130- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON RESIDENTS... ...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS TO BEGIN EVACUATION AT 6 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 525 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WEST CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 962 MB...OR 28.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON THURSDAY. THE EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDE ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE BEING ORDERED TO CLOSE THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE TO BE LIFTED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE FULLY ACTIVATED FRIDAY MORNING. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE THURSDAY EVENING BEGINNING AT 6 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN EFFORTS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTY. BOATS SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS IN THE EVENT OF FUTURE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE AFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/EYW. $$ LK ** WTUS82 KMFL 071810 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-072200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 2 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ON THE FORECASTED TRACK...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. IN NAPLES AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE VALUES MAY BE 1 TO 3 FEET AND WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AFTER DENNIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND WINDS COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE ACTUAL TRACK OF DENNIS IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE VALUES MAY BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 62 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 26 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 13 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 43 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 13 PERCENT AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR AND THOSE ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES AND PERSONS SHOULD SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 6 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071819 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA GANANDO INTENSIDAD...PASANDO JUSTO AL NORESTE DE JAMAICA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVION DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DESDE OCEAN REEF HACIA EL SUR INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y LA BAHIA DE LA FLORIDA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA O TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE... TODO JAMAICA...Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL MAR CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEL CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.1 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS ...105 KM...AL NORESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 105 MILLAS...170 KM...SUR-SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA AL NORTE DE JAMAICA MAS TARDE HOY Y SE MOVERA CERCA DEL CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ESTA MUY CERCA DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE INTENSIDAD SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICION ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS DE INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDO HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS COSTERAS CERCA DEL CENTRO. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE 12 A 14 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA DESDE CAMAGUEY HACIA EL OESTE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...18.6 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH/KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071819 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA GANANDO INTENSIDAD...PASANDO JUSTO AL NORESTE DE JAMAICA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVION DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DESDE OCEAN REEF HACIA EL SUR INCLUYENDO DRY TORTUGAS Y LA BAHIA DE LA FLORIDA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA O TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE... TODO JAMAICA...Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL MAR CENTRAL Y OCCIDENTAL DEL CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.1 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS ...105 KM...AL NORESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 105 MILLAS...170 KM...SUR-SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA AL NORTE DE JAMAICA MAS TARDE HOY Y SE MOVERA CERCA DEL CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ESTA MUY CERCA DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE INTENSIDAD SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICION ADICIONAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS DE INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDO HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 962 MILIBARAS...28.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS COSTERAS CERCA DEL CENTRO. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE 12 A 14 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA DESDE CAMAGUEY HACIA EL OESTE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...18.6 NORTE...76.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...110 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...962 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH/KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072040 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...DENNIS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 072041 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 17 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...FRONTAL WAVE THAT REMAINS OF CINDY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA... MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...AND VERMONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CARLONIA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND VIRGINIA UNTIL 10 PM EDT. AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS AGAIN INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASED TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1010 MB...OR 29.83 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM EDT ...KENTUCKY... MIDDLESBORO 1.61 META 1.44 VIRGIE 1.42 PRICE 1.42 ...NORTH CAROLINA... PLEASANT GARDENS 3.20 ASHEVILLE 2.52 NEEDMORE 2.15 CANTON 1.91 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... GREENVILLE/REEDY RIVER 4.64 GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 4.61 LYMAN 3.93 LIBERTY 3.57 OCONEE COUNTY APT 3.45 ...TENNESSEE... KNOXVILLE 2.55 NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 THROUGH 8 AM EDT DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 THROUGH 8 AM EDT CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.59 ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 NEWNAN 5.75 JEFFERSON 5.63 ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.24 PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 CAMDEN 4.86 THEODORE 3.54 SHELBY 2.23 MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 GRAND ISLE 6.37 SLIDELL 6.29 NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...35.8 NORTH...81.0 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB OR 29.83 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FRIES $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 072041 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 2100Z THU JUL 07 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 76.6W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 76.6W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 76.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072041 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.3N 80.5W 47 X X X 47 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 24.2N 82.5W 4 30 X X 34 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 26.0N 84.0W X 15 11 1 27 KEY WEST FL 5 29 X X 34 MKJP 179N 768W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL X 21 4 1 26 MKJS 185N 779W 16 X X X 16 FT MYERS FL X 15 7 1 23 MWCG 193N 814W 2 X X X 2 VENICE FL X 9 13 1 23 MUGM 200N 751W 12 X X X 12 TAMPA FL X 2 16 2 20 MUCM 214N 779W 61 X X X 61 CEDAR KEY FL X X 12 7 19 MUCF 221N 805W 48 X X X 48 ST MARKS FL X X 5 13 18 MUSN 216N 826W 16 6 1 X 23 APALACHICOLA FL X X 7 13 20 MUHA 230N 824W 18 16 X X 34 PANAMA CITY FL X X 4 16 20 MUAN 219N 850W X 6 2 1 9 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 17 18 MYAK 241N 776W 5 2 1 X 8 MOBILE AL X X X 16 16 MYNN 251N 775W 1 2 X X 3 GULFPORT MS X X X 14 14 MYGF 266N 787W X 3 3 X 6 BURAS LA X X X 13 13 MARATHON FL 5 26 X 1 32 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 11 11 MIAMI FL X 18 1 1 20 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 6 6 W PALM BEACH FL X 8 5 1 14 GULF 29N 85W X X 12 10 22 FT PIERCE FL X 3 8 1 12 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 15 20 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 8 3 12 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 13 14 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 6 6 12 GULF 28N 91W X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 072053 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN THAT AREA. THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK... CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.0N 76.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W 95 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 072054 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-080300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ054-074-075-080300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1004.050707T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-080300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.050707T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTCA44 TJSJ 072133 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS AHORA UN HURACAN MAYOR...AVISOS DE HURACAN EMITIDOS PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL PUENTE DE SIETES MILLAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA EMITIDO PARA EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...AL ESTE DEL PUENDE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA AL ESTE DEL PUENTE DE SIETE MILLAS HASTA OCEAN REEF Y FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA PENINSULA SUR DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE PLAYA BONITA EN LA COSTA OESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE... SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA SUROESTE DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...PARA TODO JAMAICA...Y TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL METEOROLOGICA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.6 OESTE O COMO A 90 MILLAS ...145 KM...AL SURESTE DE CABO CRUZ EN EL SURESTE DE CUBA Y COMO A 125 MILLAS...200 KM...AL SUROESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA MUY CERCA DEL CABO CRUZ ESTA NOCHE...Y ESTARA MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA SUR DEL CENTRO DE CUBA EL VIERNES. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE DENIIS HA CONTINUADO FORTALECIENDOSE...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE EL CENTRO LLEGUE AL CENTRO DE CUBA. LOS VIENTOS DE INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS... 75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA DE 957 MILIBARAS...28.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MAESTRA AL SURESTE DE CUBA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO CON PELIGRO A VIDAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREASDONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE CUBA AL ESTE DE CABO CRUZ. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE CERCA DE 20 SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA AL OESTE DE CABO CRUZ. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 6 PIES EN LOS CAYOS MAS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...19.0 NORTE... 76.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 957 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 072133 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080030- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED HEADLINES. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA FRIDAY. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA TONIGHT...AND VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. FISHERMANS HOSPITAL IN MARATHON AND LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER ARE SCHEDULED TO CLOSE FRIDAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. GREYHOUND BUSLINES WILL BE ADDING ADDITIONAL BUSSES THIS EVENING. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 1-800- 410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS IN THE EVENT OF FUTURE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FRIDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE AFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KMFL 072136 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-080300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...DENNIS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CAPE SABLE AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAND AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 595 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING DENNIS A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO. LISTEN FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ABOUT POSSIBLE EVACUATIONS AND THE OPENING OF SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASSUMING THE STORM SURGE OCCURS NEAR ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE..THE STORM TIDE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE AT THE MIAMI HARBOR ENTRANCE WILL BE AT 1046 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO CAPE SABLE...STORM TIDE VALUES OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACTUAL HIGH TIDE WILL BE FROM ABOUT 300 TO 430 PM SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF COASTAL HIGHWAYS AND THOSE HIGHWAYS LEADING TO MARCO ISLAND AND FLAMINGO. NORTH OF MARCO ISLAND TO BONITA BEACH...THE STORM TIDE WOULD BE 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 72 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 34 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING TO 2 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 52 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 16 PERCENT AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING AND 2 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFER HARBOR. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 11 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT PLEASE GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072337 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...APPROACHING CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 130 MPH...210 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SANTIAGO DE CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 80 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 77.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 072354 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080330- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS... ...LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MONROE COUNTY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS...NON RESIDENTS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY... ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER REACHES CENTRAL CUBA FRIDAY...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA TONIGHT...AND VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 951 MB...OR 28.08 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...MONROE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS. THE EVACUATION ORDER INCLUDES ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS CURRENTLY FULLY ACTIVATED AND A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MONROE COUNTY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY NIGHT SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. MONROE COUNTY OFFICES AND SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS SCHEDULED TO CLOSE FRIDAY. AIRLINES THAT SERVICE KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE REPORTING THAT MOST FLIGHTS OUT OF KEY WEST ARE SOLD OUT. RENTAL CAR AGENCIES REPORT NO VEHICLES AVAILABLE. GREYHOUND BUSLINES IN KEY WEST WILL HAVE A BUS LEAVING TO MIAMI AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING...AND AT 845 AM AND 1130 AM ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL BUSES ADDED AT THESE TIMES. CONTACT GREYHOUND AT 800-410-5397 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS FOR FURTHER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER KEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE KEYS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE PASSED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER KEYS. FURTHERMORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SQUALLS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY NIGHT...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ FELTGEN/DEVANAS