** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 071431 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z THU JUL 07 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 75NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 071431 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.3N 79.8W 48 X X X 48 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 8 9 22.8N 81.8W 6 27 X X 33 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 24.7N 83.5W X 12 15 1 28 KEY WEST FL X 23 5 1 29 MTCA 183N 738W 54 X X X 54 MARCO ISLAND FL X 6 15 1 22 MKJP 179N 768W 54 X X X 54 FT MYERS FL X 2 17 2 21 MKJS 185N 779W 47 X X X 47 VENICE FL X 1 16 4 21 MWCG 193N 814W 6 2 X X 8 TAMPA FL X X 11 7 18 MUGM 200N 751W 19 X X X 19 CEDAR KEY FL X X 4 12 16 MUCM 214N 779W 49 X X X 49 ST MARKS FL X X 1 15 16 MUCF 221N 805W 35 5 X X 40 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 17 18 MUSN 216N 826W 7 18 1 X 26 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 17 18 MUHA 230N 824W 2 28 1 X 31 PENSACOLA FL X X X 16 16 MUAN 219N 850W X 7 6 2 15 MOBILE AL X X X 14 14 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 1 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 13 13 MYAK 241N 776W 2 5 1 1 9 BURAS LA X X X 12 12 MYNN 251N 775W X 2 1 1 4 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 9 9 MYGF 266N 787W X 1 3 2 6 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X 21 5 X 26 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 16 19 MIAMI FL X 8 8 1 17 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 17 18 W PALM BEACH FL X 2 9 2 13 GULF 28N 89W X X X 13 13 FT PIERCE FL X X 8 3 11 GULF 28N 91W X X X 7 7 COCOA BEACH FL X X 5 6 11 GULF 28N 93W X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 8 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 071438 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071453 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND DECAY SHIPS. HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.0N 75.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071453 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND DECAY SHIPS. HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.0N 75.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT84 KNHC 071455 *** TCVAT4 DENNIS WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .HURRICANE DENNIS FLC021-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-656-657-676-072100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1004.050707T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 BONITA-BEACH-FL 26.33N 81.85W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ GMZ052-053-054-072-073-074-075-072100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1004.050707T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTNT33 KWNH 071458 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2005 ...CINDY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FROM APPALACHIANS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...AND CONNECTICUT... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WEST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOTUHERN VIRGINIA UNTIL 4 PM EDT. AT 11 AM EDT...15Z...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINED NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1011 MB...OR 29.86 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 8 AM EDT ...NORTH CAROLINA... PLEASANT GARDENS 1.94 CANTON 1.84 NEEDMORE 1.68 ASHEVILLE 1.67 LOGAN 1.66 HAZELWOOD 1.55 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... OCONEE COUNTY APT 2.93 ANDERSON 2.69 LIBERTY 2.25 GREENVILLE 2.01 GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 1.98 ...TENNESSEE... NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 KNOXVILLE 1.66 CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.43 ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 NEWNAN 5.75 JEFFERSON 5.63 PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.22 DALLAS 4.50 WINDER 4.10 ATLANTA DEKALB 2.88 ATLANTA FULTON 2.85 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 CAMDEN 4.86 THEODORE 3.54 MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 SHELBY 2.23 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 GRAND ISLE 6.37 SLIDELL 6.29 NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 NNEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.95 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.82 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED MAXIMA GREATER THAN FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...35.2 NORTH...83.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB OR 29.86 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. LADER $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 071457 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-071830- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. DENNIS IS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WEST CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 968 MB...OR 28.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS ACTIVATED. PROTECTIVE ACTIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPDATED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/EYW. $$ LK ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071504 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA EXTENDIO LA VIGILANCIA Y EL AVISO DE HURACAN HACIA EL OESTE. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA Y GUANTANAMO. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL RESTO DE LAS PROVINCIAS DE CUBA INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA Y HOLGUIN UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. A LAS 11 AM EDT...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y PARA LA BAHIA DE FLORIDA. TAMBIEN A LAS 11 AM EDT...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR EN LA COSTA ESTE Y AL SUR DE BONITA BEACH EN LA COSTA OESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... RESPECTIVAMENTE...SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...JAMAICA...Y PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 75.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS...125 KM...AL ESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KM...AL SUR DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO ESTARA PASANDO MUY CERCA DE JAMAICA ESTA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y DENNIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 968 MILIBARAS...28.59 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS DE JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN AREAS COSTERAS CERCA DEL CENTRO. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS AUN MAYORES DE 12 A 14 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA SUR DE CUBA DESDE CAMAGUEY HACIA EL OESTE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...18.0 NORTE... 75.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 968 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH/KNABB $$ - ** WTUS82 KMFL 071510 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-071900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1110 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO BE FELLED...CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 63 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 26 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 13 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 43 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 13 PERCENT AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR AND THOSE ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES AND PERSONS SHOULD SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 2 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 071515 *** HLSMFL AMZ630-651-671-FLZ069-070-073>075-GMZ656-657-676-071900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT....CORRRECTED TO INCLUDE MARINE ZONES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1114 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE AND NAPLES AS WELL AS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN METROPOLITAN AREAS OF COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN BE DONE THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON LAND THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES TO BE FELLED...CAUSING DISRUPTION OF POWER. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT MARCO ISLAND...NAPLES AND EVERGLADES CITY...THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 63 PERCENT. AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS THERE IS A MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF 26 PERCENT THAT WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH WILL OCCUR AND A 13 PERCENT CHANCE THAT HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THE AREA FROM HOMESTEAD TO MIAMI TO MIAMI BEACH TO AVENTURA THE MAXIMUM CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 39 TO 57 MPH OCCURRING IS 43 PERCENT. FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS THE PROBABILITY OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH OCCURRING IS 13 PERCENT AND A THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WHEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IS BETWEEN 8 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH AND FROM OCEAN REEF TO GOLDEN BEACH WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING SATURDAY. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR AND THOSE ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...IS LIKELY ON BEACHES AND PERSONS SHOULD SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES ONLY. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND 2 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT GO TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO AND CLICK ON THE GRAPHICAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ICON. $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 071637 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-071830- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1235 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. DENNIS IS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WEST CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 968 MB...OR 28.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON THURSDAY. THE EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDE ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE BEING ORDERED TO CLOSE THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE TO BE LIFTED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE FULLY ACTIVATED FRIDAY MORNING. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE THURSDAY EVENING BEGINNING AT 6 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN EFFORTS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTY. BOATS SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS IN THE EVENT OF FUTURE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/EYW. $$ LK ** WTUS82 KEYW 071645 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-071830- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. DENNIS IS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WEST CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 968 MB...OR 28.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON THURSDAY. THE EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDE ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE BEING ORDERED TO CLOSE THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE TO BE LIFTED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE FULLY ACTIVATED FRIDAY MORNING. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE THURSDAY EVENING BEGINNING AT 6 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN EFFORTS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTY. BOATS SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS IN THE EVENT OF FUTURE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/EYW. $$ LK ** WTNT33 KWNH 071705 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 FOR REMNANTS OF CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...CINDY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FROM APPALACHIANS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...WEST VIRGINIA...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK...AND CONNECTICUT... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WEST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOTUHERN VIRGINIA UNTIL 4 PM EDT. AT 11 AM EDT...15Z...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINED NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1011 MB...OR 29.86 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 8 AM EDT ...NORTH CAROLINA... PLEASANT GARDENS 1.94 CANTON 1.84 NEEDMORE 1.68 ASHEVILLE 1.67 LOGAN 1.66 HAZELWOOD 1.55 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... OCONEE COUNTY APT 2.93 ANDERSON 2.69 LIBERTY 2.25 GREENVILLE 2.01 GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG APT 1.98 ...TENNESSEE... NEWFOUND GAP ARK 2.35 DOUGLAS DAM 1.79 KNOXVILLE 1.66 CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 1.43 ...GEORGIA... LITHONIA 6.38 NEWNAN 5.75 JEFFERSON 5.63 PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.22 DALLAS 4.50 WINDER 4.10 ATLANTA DEKALB 2.88 ATLANTA FULTON 2.85 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 CAMDEN 4.86 THEODORE 3.54 MONTGOMERY/CATOMA CREEK 2.20 SHELBY 2.23 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 GRAND ISLE 6.37 SLIDELL 6.29 NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 NNEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 2.95 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.82 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED MAXIMA GREATER THAN FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...35.2 NORTH...83.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB OR 29.86 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. CORRECTED FOR DATE. LADER $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 071712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 74.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.07.2005 17.3N 74.8W STRONG 00UTC 08.07.2005 19.2N 77.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.07.2005 20.6N 79.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 22.1N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 23.5N 84.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 24.5N 85.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 26.1N 87.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 27.7N 89.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 29.7N 91.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 31.6N 92.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 33.2N 93.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 33.9N 94.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.07.2005 34.6N 94.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.6N 22.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.07.2005 10.6N 22.0W MODERATE 00UTC 08.07.2005 11.2N 24.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.07.2005 11.9N 26.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 13.0N 28.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 12.4N 30.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 12.5N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 14.8N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 14.9N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 14.7N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 15.5N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 15.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2005 16.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071712 ** WTUS82 KEYW 071721 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-071830- HURRICANE DENNIS LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF VISITORS AND NON RESIDENTS... ...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS TO BEGIN EVACUATION AT 6 PM... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST...AND 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON. DENNIS IS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WEST CENTRAL CUBA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 968 MB...OR 28.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ORDERED A VISITOR AND NONRESIDENT EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT NOON THURSDAY. THE EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDE ALL TRAVEL TRAILERS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES. RESIDENTS LIVING ON BOATS NEED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS AND EVACUATE AS WELL. COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE BEING ORDERED TO CLOSE THURSDAY. THE TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE TO BE LIFTED. VISITORS WITH IMMEDIATE PLANS TO VISIT THE KEYS MUST POSTPONE THEM UNTIL THE RISK OF THE STORM PASSES. THE MONROE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS TO BE FULLY ACTIVATED FRIDAY MORNING. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE THURSDAY EVENING BEGINNING AT 6 PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN EFFORTS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTY. BOATS SHOULD BE SECURED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THE DRAW BRIDGES AT SNAKE CREEK IN ISLAMORADA AND JEWFISH CREEK IN KEY LARGO ARE TO BE LOCKED DOWN AT 10 PM THURSDAY SO THAT VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW WILL NOT BE INTERRUPTED BY BOATS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MEDIA REPORTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BULLETINS IN THE EVENT OF FUTURE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE IN THE LOWER KEYS IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE DENNIS. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE DENNIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR HURRICANE DENNIS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE CHECK OR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/EYW. $$ LK ** WTNT34 KNHC 071751 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA... CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM... NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB $$