** WTIN20 DEMS 070600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-07-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA AAA RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT34 KNHC 070839 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER...HEADING FOR JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070839 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0900Z THU JUL 07 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 74.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070839 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105 KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA. THE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13 AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD... ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.0N 74.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 70 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070839 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.0N 79.0W 47 X X X 47 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 21.6N 81.5W 3 31 X X 34 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 23.5N 83.5W X 11 16 1 28 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W 38 X X X 38 KEY WEST FL X 9 14 1 24 MKJP 179N 768W 65 X X X 65 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 13 4 18 MKJS 185N 779W 55 X X X 55 FT MYERS FL X X 11 5 16 MWCG 193N 814W 11 10 X 1 22 VENICE FL X X 9 8 17 MUGM 200N 751W 15 X X X 15 TAMPA FL X X 4 10 14 MUCM 214N 779W 28 3 X X 31 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 11 12 MUCF 221N 805W 5 29 X X 34 ST MARKS FL X X X 12 12 MUSN 216N 826W X 28 2 X 30 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 15 15 MUHA 230N 824W X 24 6 X 30 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 15 15 MUAN 219N 850W X 6 12 1 19 PENSACOLA FL X X X 14 14 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 3 3 6 MOBILE AL X X X 12 12 MYAK 241N 776W X 3 1 X 4 GULFPORT MS X X X 12 12 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 X 1 2 BURAS LA X X X 12 12 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 2 3 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 9 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X 8 12 1 21 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 15 16 MIAMI FL X 1 9 2 12 GULF 29N 87W X X X 17 17 W PALM BEACH FL X X 5 4 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 14 14 FT PIERCE FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070855 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO DEL HURACAN DENNIS...DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA JAMAICA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...TODA JAMAICA...TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. EL AVISO Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA CUBA PODRIAN SER EXTENDIDOS HACIA EL OESTE TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 74.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS... 260 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 225 MILLAS... 360 KM...AL SUR DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PASE SOBRE O BIEN CERCA DE JAMAICA EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y DENNIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 2 PARA LA HORA EN QUE LLEGUE A JAMAICA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.0 NORTE... 74.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 070904 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 15 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS... THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS... FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND... PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND WEST VIRGINIA. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 10 AM EDT. AT 5 AM EDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BEEN TRAVELLING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS SHE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY REMAINED NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. SELECTED 30 HR STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 2 AM EDT ...SOUTH CAROLINA... CLEMSON 1.70 LIBERTY 1.46 SENECA 1.12 ...TENNESSEE... CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 2.05 CHICKAMAUGA LAKE 1.23 BOONE LAKE 1.12 CHEROKEE LAKE 1.11 ...GEORGIA... NEWNAN 5.75 JEFFERSON 5.63 PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.14 DALLAS 4.50 WINDER 4.10 ATLANTA FULTON 2.75 ATLANTA DEKALB 2.22 ...FLORIDA... DOTHAN 1.60 FORT WALTON BEACH/VALPARAISO 1.19 PENSACOLA NAS 1.07 HURLBURT FIELD 1.05 CRESTVIEW 1.01 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THEODORE 3.54 SHELBY 2.22 FAIRHOPE 1.85 ROBERTSDALE 1.70 BAY MINETTE 1.40 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...LOUISIANA... SLIDELL 3.19 LAKEFRONT 2.65 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.69 LAKE CHARLES 0.86 RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ISOLATED MAXIMA GREATER THAN FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. REPEATING THE 05 AM EDT POSITION...34.0 NORTH...84.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 070924 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM CDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CINDY SE DEBILITA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE A MEDIDA QUE SE DEBILITA...PERMANECE POSIBILIDAD DE LLUVIAS FUERTES... ACTUALMENTE ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PARA SECTORES DEL NORESTE DE GEORGIA. VIGILANCIAS DE INUNDACIONES E INUNDACONES REPENTINAS ESTAN EN EFECTO PARA SECTORES DE ALABAMA...GEORGIA...CAROLINA DEL SUR...CAROLINA DEL NORTE...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA... NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...Y WEST VIRGINIA. SPC HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORNADOS PARA EL NORESTE DE GEORGIA...EL OESTE DE CAROLINA DEL SUR...Y EL OESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA LS 10 AM EDT. A LAS 5 AM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINDY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.8 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE ATLANTA GEORGIA. LA DEPRESION TRPICAL CINDY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE EL MOVIMIENTO AUMENTE HOY A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 15 MPH... CON RAFAGAS CERCA DE 20 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB... 29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE TOMENTA EN 30 HORAS SELELCCIONADAS HASTA LAS 2 AM EDT ...SOUTH CAROLINA... CLEMSON 1.70 LIBERTY 1.46 SENECA 1.12 ...TENNESSEE... CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 2.05 CHICKAMAUGA LAKE 1.23 BOONE LAKE 1.12 CHEROKEE LAKE 1.11 ...GEORGIA... NEWNAN 5.75 JEFFERSON 5.63 PEACHTREE CITY 5.20 ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.14 DALLAS 4.50 WINDER 4.10 ATLANTA FULTON 2.75 ATLANTA DEKALB 2.22 ...FLORIDA... DOTHAN 1.60 FORT WALTON BEACH/VALPARAISO 1.19 PENSACOLA NAS 1.07 HURLBURT FIELD 1.05 CRESTVIEW 1.01 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THEODORE 3.54 SHELBY 2.22 FAIRHOPE 1.85 ROBERTSDALE 1.70 BAY MINETTE 1.40 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...LOUISIANA... SLIDELL 3.19 LAKEFRONT 2.65 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.69 LAKE CHARLES 0.86 ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES HASTA EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA DESDE EL SUR DE LOS APALACHES HACIA LOS ESTADOS DEL ATLANTICO MEDIO.CANTIDADES MAXIAMS AISLADAS MAYORES DE 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS AREAS MAS ALTAS DE LAS MONTANAS APALACHES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM CDT...34.0 NORTE... 84.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...15 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE HASTA 20 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CINDY SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS A LAS 11 AM EDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 071144 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...DENNIS STRENGTHENS TO 105 MPH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071155 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS SE FORTALECE HASTA 105 MPH... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...TODA JAMAICA...TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. EL AVISO Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA CUBA PODRIAN SER EXTENDIDOS HACIA EL OESTE TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 74.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS... 205 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 165 MILLAS... 265 KM...AL SUR DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 16 KM/HR...EN LAS HORAS PASADAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERALMENTE AL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PASE SOBRE O BIEN CERCA DE JAMAICA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 2 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 968 MILIBARAS...28.58 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 A 20 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...17.5 NORTE... 74.9 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 968 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH/KNABB $$