** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 060227 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z WED JUL 06 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 71.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 55SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 78.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.4N 82.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 85SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070104 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO AL ESTE-SURESTE DE JAMAICA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA...EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. POSIBLEMENTE SE EMITA UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HA DESCONTINUAD EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. SIN EMBARGO...TURBONADAS FUERTES CONTINUARAN ESTA NOCHE Y PODRIAN GENERAR RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA 40 MPH. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 72.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 280 MILLAS... 455 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 295 MILLAS... 470 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS PASARA SOBRE O JUSTO AL ESTE DE JAMAICA PARA EL JUEVES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 2 ANTES DE LLEGAR A JAMAICA EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 984 MILIBARAS...29.06 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...16.3 NORTE... 72.9 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 984 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070148 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 MESSAGE IS BEING RE-TRANSMITTED ONLY...NO CHANGES MADE ...DENNIS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...STRONG SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES... 455 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL PASS OVER OR JUST EAST OF JAMAICA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070233 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z THU JUL 07 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDERWESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 73.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 73.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.6N 75.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 105SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 82.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 32.0N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 73.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070233 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.2N 77.8W 47 X X 1 48 W PALM BEACH FL X X 4 6 10 20.7N 80.1W 3 30 X X 33 FT PIERCE FL X X 2 6 8 22.2N 82.1W X 13 13 1 27 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 6 7 MDCB 176N 714W 2 X X X 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 MTPP 186N 724W 3 X X X 3 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 56 X X X 56 KEY WEST FL X 1 17 4 22 MKJP 179N 768W 54 X X X 54 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 9 8 17 MKJS 185N 779W 45 X X X 45 FT MYERS FL X X 6 9 15 MWCG 193N 814W 1 20 1 1 23 VENICE FL X X 3 12 15 MUGM 200N 751W 28 X X X 28 TAMPA FL X X 1 11 12 MUCM 214N 779W 12 18 X X 30 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 9 9 MUCF 221N 805W X 25 3 1 29 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8 MUSN 216N 826W X 12 12 1 25 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 10 10 MUHA 230N 824W X 5 19 1 25 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9 MUAN 219N 850W X X 12 6 18 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 2 6 8 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W X 2 1 X 3 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5 MYAK 241N 776W X 4 4 1 9 BURAS LA X X X 5 5 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 3 1 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 85W X X X 12 12 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X X 11 11 MARATHON FL X 2 15 3 20 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9 MIAMI FL X X 9 5 14 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070241 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES... 400 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST EAST OF JAMAICA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070259 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 DENNIS HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT HAD WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER DURING THE DAY. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN FLYING INTO DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO AT LEAST 75 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO AT LEAST 980 MB...A PRESSURE DROP OF 7 MB IN THE PAST 5 HOURS. A CDO FEATURE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A WARM SPOT/PRE-EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A CLOSED EYE HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 60-72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP DENNIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER... THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S....WHICH ULTIMATELY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HALF OF THE MODELS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE NAM...CANADIAN...GFDL... AND NOGAPS HAVE LESS RIDGING AND MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. NOW THAT A CDO AND EYE HAVE DEVELOPED...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD BE INTERACTION WITH LAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF THAT...THE LOW SHEAR AND 29C SSTS FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN BRINGS DENNIS TO 127 KT IN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS FAIRLY ROBUST IN TAKING DENNIS UP TO 107 KT IN 60 HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.5N 73.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.6N 75.4W 85 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.2N 77.8W 95 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.7N 80.1W 105 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 82.1W 105 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 85.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 28.5N 87.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 32.0N 88.5W 80 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 070305 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 14 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO GEORGIA... FLOOD...FLASH FLOOD...AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND WEST VIRGINIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER THROUGH THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BEEN TRAVELLING CONSISTENTLY NORTHEASTWARD SINCE LANDFALL. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 PM CDT...15Z...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY REMAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. SELECTED 24 HR STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 7 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... SLIDELL 3.19 LAKEFRONT 2.65 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.69 LAKE CHARLES 0.86 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THEODORE 3.54 SHELBY 2.22 FAIRHOPE 1.85 ROBERTSDALE 1.70 BAY MINETTE 1.40 ...GEORGIA... ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.02 ATLANTA FULTON 2.07 ATLANTA DEKALB 1.34 ...TENNESSE... CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 2.05 CHICKAMAUGA LAKE 1.23 BOONE LAKE 1.12 CHEROKEE LAKE 1.11 ...FLORIDA... DOTHAN 1.60 FORT WALTON BEACH/VALPARAISO 1.19 PENSACOLA NAS 1.07 HURLBURT FIELD 1.05 CRESTVIEW 1.01 EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE PATH OF CINDY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...33.0 NORTH...86.1 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. SZATANEK $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070306 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE AL ESTE-SURESTE DE JAMAICA... ...AVISO DE HURACAN EMITIDOS PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA CAMBIADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN POR UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...TODA JAMAICA...TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDO PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 73.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 245 MILLAS... 400 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 280 MILLAS... 455 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PASE SOBRE O JUSTO AL ESTE DE JAMAICA PARA EL JUEVES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 2 PARA LA HORA EN QUE LLEGUE A JAMAICA EL JUEVES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 980 MILIBARAS...28.94 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...16.5 NORTE... 73.4 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 980 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 070329 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 14 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO GEORGIA... FLOOD...FLASH FLOOD...AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND WEST VIRGINIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER THROUGH THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 90 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTA GEORGIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BEEN TRAVELLING CONSISTENTLY NORTHEASTWARD SINCE LANDFALL. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 PM CDT...15Z...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY REMAINED NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1009 MB...OR 29.80 INCHES. SELECTED 24 HR STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 7 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... SLIDELL 3.19 LAKEFRONT 2.65 NEW ORLEANS/ARMSTRONG 1.69 LAKE CHARLES 0.86 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCAGOULA-LOTT 7.12 PASCAGOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.46 BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.53 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 6.20 THEODORE 3.54 SHELBY 2.22 FAIRHOPE 1.85 ROBERTSDALE 1.70 BAY MINETTE 1.40 ...GEORGIA... ATLANTA INTL ARPT 5.02 ATLANTA FULTON 2.07 ATLANTA DEKALB 1.34 ...TENNESSE... CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 2.05 CHICKAMAUGA LAKE 1.23 BOONE LAKE 1.12 CHEROKEE LAKE 1.11 ...FLORIDA... DOTHAN 1.60 FORT WALTON BEACH/VALPARAISO 1.19 PENSACOLA NAS 1.07 HURLBURT FIELD 1.05 CRESTVIEW 1.01 EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE PATH OF CINDY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...33.0 NORTH...86.1 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB OR 29.80 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. SZATANEK CORRECTED TO REMOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LOUISIANA WATERS. $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 070512 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.07.2005 HURRICANE DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.07.2005 16.2N 73.0W STRONG 12UTC 07.07.2005 17.7N 75.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.07.2005 19.7N 77.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.07.2005 20.7N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.07.2005 21.9N 82.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.07.2005 23.0N 84.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.07.2005 24.6N 85.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2005 26.8N 87.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 28.7N 89.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.07.2005 30.6N 90.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.07.2005 32.8N 92.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.07.2005 33.1N 94.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.07.2005 33.1N 95.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.2N 19.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.07.2005 10.2N 19.6W WEAK 12UTC 07.07.2005 10.5N 22.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.07.2005 10.8N 25.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.07.2005 11.3N 26.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 12.8N 28.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 13.6N 31.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 14.0N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2005 14.6N 37.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 14.8N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2005 15.2N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2005 15.5N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2005 16.0N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2005 16.2N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070512 ** WTNT34 KNHC 070541 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS AIMS AT JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070554 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT JUEVES 7 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN DENNIS SE DIRIGE HACIA JAMAICA... AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...TODA JAMAICA...TODAS LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDO PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 74.2 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS... 255 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 235 MILLAS... 375 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PASE SOBRE O BIEN CERCA DE JAMAICA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 2 PARA LA HORA EN QUE LLEGUE A JAMAICA EL JUEVES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA FUE DE 975 MILIBARAS...28.79 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...16.7 NORTE... 74.2 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 975 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$