** WTCA44 TJSJ 061825 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DENNIS COMIENZAN A DESPLAZARSE SOBRE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE DE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO Y HOLGUIN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.7 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 72.0 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...565 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 25 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS ESTARA CERCA DE JAMAICA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA A DENNIS ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MILIBARAS...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO DE JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...15.7 NORTE...72.0 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB/PASCH $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 061825 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DENNIS COMIENZAN A DESPLAZARSE SOBRE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE DE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO Y HOLGUIN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.7 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 72.0 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...565 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 25 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS ESTARA CERCA DE JAMAICA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA A DENNIS ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MILIBARAS...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO DE JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...15.7 NORTE...72.0 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 062041 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 13 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA... FLOOD...FLASH FLOOD...AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND FLORIDA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...TENNESSEE...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND WEST VIRGINIA. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND FLORIDA. WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA GULF COAST. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BEEN TRAVELLING CONSISTENTLY NORTHEASTWARD SINCE LANDFALL. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY REMAINED NEAR 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSUE WAS 1003 MB...OR 29.62 INCHES. SELECTED STORM RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 1 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... GALLIANO 7.56 THROUGH 7 AM CDT GRAND ISLE 6.37 THROUGH 7 AM CDT SLIDELL 6.29 THROUGH 7 AM CDT NEW ORLEANS/ALGIERS 4.99 THROUGH 7 AM CDT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT 2.95 ...MISSISSIPPI... PASCACOULA 6.61 GULFPORT 6.50 VANCLEAVE 6.03 THROUGH 7 AM CDT BILOXI/KEESLER AFB 4.76 ...ALABAMA... MOBILE/BATES FIELD 6.55 THEODORE 3.54 THROUGH 7 AM CDT FOWL RIVER 3.52 THROUGH 7 AM CDT FAIRHOPE 1.86 THROUGH 7 AM CDT ...FLORIDA... FORT WALTON BEACH/VALPARAISO 1.19 PENSACOLA NAS 1.07 HURLBURT FIELD 1.05 CRESTVIEW 1.01 EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...31.7 NORTH...87.9 WEST... MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB OR 29.62 INCHES. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FRIES $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 062046 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 510 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING DENNIS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.0 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 062046 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 2100Z WED JUL 06 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 062047 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.4N 76.7W 46 X 1 X 47 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 6 9 20.0N 79.1W 3 31 X X 34 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 7 8 21.4N 81.4W X 12 15 1 28 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 MDCB 176N 714W 11 X X X 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 MTPP 186N 724W 10 X X X 10 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 53 X X X 53 KEY WEST FL X X 15 6 21 MKJP 179N 768W 44 X X 1 45 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 10 16 MKJS 185N 779W 32 6 X X 38 FT MYERS FL X X 3 11 14 MWCG 193N 814W X 14 7 1 22 VENICE FL X X 1 13 14 MUGM 200N 751W 25 2 X X 27 TAMPA FL X X X 11 11 MUCM 214N 779W 1 27 X X 28 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 8 8 MUCF 221N 805W X 15 13 1 29 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 20 2 25 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 21 3 25 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6 MUAN 219N 850W X X 8 10 18 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 8 9 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYEG 235N 758W X 2 1 1 4 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X 2 7 1 10 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X 4 2 6 GULF 29N 85W X X X 9 9 MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X 14 5 19 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL X X 7 6 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 062059 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 WHILE 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN ONLY 58 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 55 KT...BUT THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DENNIS COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SHORTLY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO...AND THEN SUSTAINING...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS 127 KT AND 931 MB BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 100 KT IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING DENNIS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. DENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE. FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.0N 72.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 062102 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE DENNIS CONTINUAN EXTENDIENDOSE SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA CAMBIADO LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN POR UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA...EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE DE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 72.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS... 510 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 340 MILLAS... 545 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTOCONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS ESTARA CERCA DE JAMAICA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. DATOS DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DENNIS PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. EL AVION TODAVIA ESTA INVESTIGANDO A DENNIS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...16.0 NORTE... 72.5 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB/PASCH $$ ** WTNT64 KNHC 062148 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 547 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH... SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 062155 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 2200Z WED JUL 06 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 72.5W AT 06/2200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 72.5W AT 06/2200Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 062156 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.4N 76.7W 47 X X X 47 W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 8 10 20.0N 79.1W 3 29 X X 32 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 7 8 21.4N 81.4W X 11 13 1 25 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 MDCB 176N 714W 11 X X X 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 MTPP 186N 724W 10 X X X 10 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 53 X X X 53 KEY WEST FL X X 12 7 19 MKJP 179N 768W 45 X X X 45 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 4 11 15 MKJS 185N 779W 33 5 X X 38 FT MYERS FL X X 2 11 13 MWCG 193N 814W X 15 5 1 21 VENICE FL X X 1 12 13 MUGM 200N 751W 26 2 X X 28 TAMPA FL X X X 10 10 MUCM 214N 779W 1 25 X X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7 MUCF 221N 805W X 12 12 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 17 2 22 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 17 4 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5 MUAN 219N 850W X X 8 9 17 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 7 8 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYEG 235N 758W X 2 3 X 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X 3 6 2 11 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X 4 3 7 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8 MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X 12 6 18 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL X X 5 8 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 062201 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES DENNIS HAS BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH... 130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 6 PM EDT POSITION...16.1 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 062208 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE DENNIS TO A HURRICANE BASED ON A 79-KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THAT WAS MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 2127Z ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE EYE AND MEASURING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB. WIND RADII FOR 64-KT WERE INCLUDED AND THE 50-KT RADII WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE NEW RECON WIND DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/12. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER... RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND DENNIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT PASSES CLOSE TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2200Z 16.1N 72.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 062230 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN DENNIS ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICA QUE DENNIS SE HA CONVERTIDO EN UN HURACAN SOBRE EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA...EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA HACIA EL OESTE...Y PARTES DEL ESTE DE CUBA DESDE LAS PROVINCIAS DE GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...Y GUANTANAMO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN AVANZAR A SER COMPLETADAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE DE LA FRONTERA DE HAITI Y LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA PARTES DEL ESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...Y HOLGUIN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y EL OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 6 PM AST...2200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.1 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 72.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS... 505 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA Y COMO A 335 MILLAS... 540 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE GUANTANAMO CUBA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTOCONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS ESTARA CENTRALIZADO CERCA DE JAMAICA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS REPORTES RECIENTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTANDO HASTA CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE DENNIS UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HIRACAN SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MEDIDA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE LA ESPANOLA...JAMAICA...EL ESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAYORES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO EN JAMAICA. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM AST...16.1 NORTE... 72.5 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 985 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 062350 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...STRONG SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES... 455 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL PASS OVER OR JUST EAST OF JAMAICA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$