** WTIN20 DEMS 060600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 06-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH-WEST AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,PARTS OF SOUTH- EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ========= ** WTNT33 KNHC 060651 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...CINDY FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CENTER. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 060701 *** HLSTAE FLZ007>014-060915- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (TAE) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CINDY... ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THESE AREAS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF CINDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM. TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 7:18 AM AND 2:54 PM...LOW 10:18 AM AND 11:56 PM. PORT ST. JOE... TODAY: HIGH 10:40 AM...LOW 9:49 PM. SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 10:07 AM...LOW 9:29 PM. EAST PASS AT DESTIN... TODAY: HIGH 10:37 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST VULNERABLE ARE THOSE LIVING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 515 AM EDT. $$ BARRY ** WTUS82 KTAE 060706 *** HLSTAE FLZ007>014-060915- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (TAE) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CINDY... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASSIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH. A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THESE AREAS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF CINDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM. TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 7:18 AM AND 2:54 PM...LOW 10:18 AM AND 11:56 PM. PORT ST. JOE... TODAY: HIGH 10:40 AM...LOW 9:49 PM. SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 10:07 AM...LOW 9:29 PM. EAST PASS AT DESTIN... TODAY: HIGH 10:37 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST VULNERABLE ARE THOSE LIVING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 515 AM EDT. $$ BARRY ** WTCA43 TJSJ 060707 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...SE PRONODTICA QUE CINDY SE DEBILITE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA TIERRA... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM CDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 90.0 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO CONTINUARA MOVIENDOSE HACIA TIERRA SOBRE LOUISIANA Y MISSISSIPPI. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 998 MB... 29.47 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO Y PARTES DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...CON CANTIDADES MAYORES EN AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM CDT...29.7 NORTE... 90.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 998 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 060830 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 110.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 060830 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2005 SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING INTO A POORLY DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DORA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.5N 107.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.9W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 110.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 060834 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.0N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 060834 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 RADAR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS AND CINDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS 035/12. CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SO A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CINDY HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE KEPT AT THIS TIME BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER INLAND. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 30.1N 89.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0600Z 33.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/0600Z 37.0N 80.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z 40.0N 74.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 060834 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...CINDY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CENTER. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...30.1 N... 89.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 060835 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.0N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 060835 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 86.0W 45 X X X 45 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4 35.0N 83.5W 8 14 1 X 23 HYANNIS MA X X X 4 4 37.0N 80.0W X 2 12 2 16 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 1 3 PORTLAND ME X X X 3 3 JACKSONVILLE FL X 3 3 1 7 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X 7 5 1 13 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 X 2 CHARLESTON SC X 4 7 2 13 ST MARKS FL 1 4 1 1 7 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 2 8 2 12 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 X 1 4 WILMINGTON NC X 1 7 3 11 PANAMA CITY FL 2 3 X 1 6 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 5 5 10 PENSACOLA FL 35 X X X 35 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 3 6 9 MOBILE AL 68 X X X 68 NORFOLK VA X X 4 7 11 GULFPORT MS 99 X X X 99 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 9 10 BURAS LA 99 X X X 99 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 8 9 NEW ORLEANS LA 99 X X X 99 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 8 8 NEW IBERIA LA 6 X X X 6 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W 4 X X X 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 060840 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 110.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 060841 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...SE PRODUCE UN GRAN AREA DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.7 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...40 KILOMETROS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 998 MB... 29.47 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO Y PARTES DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...CON CANTIDADES MAYORES EN AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA Y EL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...30.1 NORTE... 89.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 998 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 060844 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 330 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS STONE...GEORGE...GREENE...AND PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WIND ADVISORIES FOR WINDS OF 25 MPH OR MORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR CHOCTAW... WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...WILCOX...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 800 AM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 330 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR JUST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON TODAY... AND COMBINED WITH CINDY'S SURGE...COULD RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND DAUPHIN ISLAND. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST INTO BALDWIN COUNTY IN ALABAMA BETWEEN 400 AND 600 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF MOBILE COUNTY SINCE 200 AM. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO ALL OF MOBILE COUNTY AND INTO GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 400 AND 500 AM AND INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY BETWEEN 500 AND 600 AM. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND GEORGE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF THE CENTER OF CINDY. ...NEW INFORMATION... AS CINDY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THE MOBILE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE HOURLY SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB). THIS PRODUCT WILL CONTAIN INFORMATION OF THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST WINDS... HEAVIEST RAINS AND THE CENTER OF CINDY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM. $$ BEELER ** WTNT34 KNHC 060846 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...15.1 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060846 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.8N 75.0W 48 X X X 48 MARATHON FL X X 6 11 17 19.0N 77.5W 4 29 X X 33 MIAMI FL X X 2 11 13 20.5N 80.0W X 10 17 1 28 W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 8 9 MDCB 176N 714W 38 X X X 38 FT PIERCE FL X X X 7 7 MTPP 186N 724W 29 X X X 29 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 MTCA 183N 738W 49 X X X 49 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 MKJP 179N 768W 22 12 X X 34 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 MKJS 185N 779W 3 27 X X 30 KEY WEST FL X X 6 12 18 MWCG 193N 814W X 3 15 2 20 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 13 14 MUGM 200N 751W 13 16 X X 29 FT MYERS FL X X 1 11 12 MUCM 214N 779W X 18 8 1 27 VENICE FL X X X 11 11 MUCF 221N 805W X 2 20 2 24 TAMPA FL X X X 8 8 MUSN 216N 826W X X 13 8 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X 11 10 21 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X X 2 13 15 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 7 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MYEG 235N 758W X 1 4 2 7 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5 MYAK 241N 776W X X 8 3 11 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X 3 5 8 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 5 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 060846 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 70.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 70.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.1N 72.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 060850 CCA *** HLSMOB ALZ051>056-059>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECT HEADER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 330 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS STONE...GEORGE...GREENE...AND PERRY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WIND ADVISORIES FOR WINDS OF 25 MPH OR MORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR CHOCTAW... WASHINGTON...CLARKE...MONROE...WILCOX...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 800 AM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 330 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR JUST EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON TODAY... AND COMBINED WITH CINDY'S SURGE...COULD RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND DAUPHIN ISLAND. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST INTO BALDWIN COUNTY IN ALABAMA BETWEEN 400 AND 600 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TODAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF MOBILE COUNTY SINCE 200 AM. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO ALL OF MOBILE COUNTY AND INTO GEORGE AND STONE COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 400 AND 500 AM AND INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY BETWEEN 500 AND 600 AM. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND GEORGE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF THE CENTER OF CINDY. ...NEW INFORMATION... AS CINDY CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THE MOBILE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE HOURLY SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB). THIS PRODUCT WILL CONTAIN INFORMATION OF THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST WINDS... HEAVIEST RAINS AND THE CENTER OF CINDY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM. $$ BEELER ** WTUS82 KTAE 060859 *** HLSTAE FLZ007>014-061115- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 500 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...EAST- NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CINDY... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH. A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF CINDY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM. TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 7:18 AM AND 2:54 PM...LOW 10:18 AM AND 11:56 PM. PORT ST. JOE... TODAY: HIGH 10:40 AM...LOW 9:49 PM. SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 10:07 AM...LOW 9:29 PM. EAST PASS AT DESTIN... TODAY: HIGH 10:37 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. ONSHORE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST VULNERABLE ARE THOSE LIVING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 715 AM EDT. $$ BARRY ** WTCA44 TJSJ 060905 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 6 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE EN EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE JAMAICA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA JAMAICA Y EL GOBIERNO DE HAITI HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA EL ESTE DE CUBA...PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO Y HOLGUIN. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN ESTAR BIEN ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.1 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 70.3 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS... 445 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE PORT AU PRINCE HAITI Y COMO A 475 MILLAS... 765 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KINGSTON JAMAICA. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH... 26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...DENNIS ESTARA CERCA DE JAMAICA TEMPRANO EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DENNIS SE PODRIA CONVERTIR EN HURACAN HOY TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.35 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE DENNIS PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA ESPANOLA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENO MONTANOSO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR PELIGROSAS INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM... 15.1 NORTE... 70.3 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060906 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.1N 70.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 72.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.8N 75.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 77.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 80.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 85.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 060913 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0900Z WED JUL 06 2005 RETRANSMISSION A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 89.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.0N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 060927 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-061230- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 430 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST JAMES...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 415 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...REACHING 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CINDYS PATH. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS AND PROPERTY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...ALONG COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...WIND IMPACTS.... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM SOUTH ST TAMMANY PARISH...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 65 MPH. NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT HAS RECORDED WIND GUSTS 50 KNOTS...57 MPH...OR HIGHER...SINCE 1100 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 400 AM THIS MORNING. OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH IN THE STRONGER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND TREES...AS WELL AS DOWNED POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CINDYS TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. FLOODING OF STREETS HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TODAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RESULT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS IN EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND LATEST RIVER FORECASTS. ...TORNADOES... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 AM CDT WEDNESDAY. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 061000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 18.5N4 106.9W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N4 107.4W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 18.6N5 108.9W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 18.8N7 110.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 19.0N0 112.7W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 061000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 18.5N4 106.9W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N4 107.4W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 18.6N5 108.9W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 18.8N7 110.8W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 19.0N0 112.7W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//