** WTUS84 KLIX 051201 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ077-080>082-051530- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AREA IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST JAMES...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER AND INCREASING TIDES...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CINDY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS.... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT TODAY. $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KLCH 051218 *** HLSLCH LAZ043>045-052>055-051600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 715 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE LOWER ST. MARTIN ST. MARY UPPER ST. MARTIN VERMILION ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...IBERIA... LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION PARISHES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. RESIDENTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. AT SOUTHWEST PASS...THE NEXT LOW TIDE WILL BE AT 10:02 PM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AT 7:10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST. RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ WILEY $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 051243 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...CINDY MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE-CENTRAL DEL GOLFO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HASTA PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUYENDO LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL ESTE DE PASCAGOULA HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA FAVOR DE REFERIORSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 90.4 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. CINDY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA TRAERA A CINDY CERCA DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 45 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES EN TURBONADAS...AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE ANTES DE QUE EL SISTEMA ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1003 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO CRUCE LA COSTA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO...CON CANTIDADES MAYORES EN AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM CDT...26.4 NORTE... 90.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 051320 *** HLSLCH LAZ043>045-052>055-051600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 715 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...ACADIA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...UPPER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...IBERIA... LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION PARISHES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. RESIDENTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. AT SOUTHWEST PASS...THE NEXT LOW TIDE WILL BE AT 10:02 PM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AT 7:10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST. RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ WILEY $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 051421 *** HLSMOB ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-051700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 920 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY TRACKING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THE WATCH IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE MORE NORTH NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS IS THE REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS MAY BE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAUPHIN ISLAND HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS YOU GO EAST OVER PENSACOLA BEACH TO DESTIN. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM CINDY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF CINDY'S PATH. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS CINDY APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON. $$ BEELER/GARMON ** WTNT33 KNHC 051434 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...CINDY CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED A LITTLE EASTWARD... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ALSO AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.0 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 051434 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 1500Z TUE JUL 05 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ALSO AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 90.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 90.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 90.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.7N 90.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.8N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 36.5N 83.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 40.0N 79.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 74.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 051435 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.5N 89.4W 36 X X X 36 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 4 6 31.8N 88.5W 19 4 1 X 24 ST MARKS FL X 1 5 4 10 33.0N 87.0W 3 9 4 2 18 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 5 3 11 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL 1 5 4 3 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 PENSACOLA FL 11 5 2 1 19 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 6 7 MOBILE AL 23 2 X X 25 SAVANNAH GA X X X 8 8 GULFPORT MS 34 X X X 34 CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7 BURAS LA 50 X X X 50 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 6 6 NEW ORLEANS LA 45 X X X 45 WILMINGTON NC X X X 5 5 NEW IBERIA LA 21 X 1 X 22 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X 1 X 1 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X 2 5 2 9 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W 8 5 1 1 15 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W 46 1 X X 47 VENICE FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W 75 X X X 75 TAMPA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 93W 1 X 1 X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED C FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU D FROM 7AM THU TO 7AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 051435 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 1500Z TUE JUL 05 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 68.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.9N 71.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 76.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 051439 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.9N 71.5W 47 1 X X 48 MYMM 224N 730W X X 4 2 6 17.4N 74.1W 2 32 X X 34 MYSM 241N 745W X X 1 4 5 18.9N 76.6W X 9 17 1 27 MYEG 235N 758W X X 4 7 11 MDSD 185N 697W 6 5 1 X 12 MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 11 13 MDCB 176N 714W 26 9 X X 35 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 10 10 MTPP 186N 724W 3 25 X 1 29 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 7 7 MTCA 183N 738W 1 31 1 X 33 MARATHON FL X X X 14 14 MKJP 179N 768W X 11 13 1 25 MIAMI FL X X X 11 11 MKJS 185N 779W X 3 18 2 23 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 8 8 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 13 15 FT PIERCE FL X X X 6 6 MUGM 200N 751W X 11 14 1 26 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 MUCM 214N 779W X X 15 7 22 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 17 19 KEY WEST FL X X X 14 14 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 15 15 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 11 11 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 16 16 FT MYERS FL X X X 9 9 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL X X X 5 5 MDPP 198N 707W X 6 2 X 8 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 MBJT 215N 712W X 1 1 1 3 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 051439 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...CARIBBEAN DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. JULY 5 IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR 4 NAMED STORMS TO HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 051443 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND...BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED. THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE EVER TO HAVE FOUR NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE STORM WILL BE IN A LOW-SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SKILL IN INTENSITY CHANGE PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5. DENNIS IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 KT AS A RESULT OF A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE DECELERATION IS PREDICTED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER-RANGE TRACK PREDICTIONS...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MIGHT BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.3N 66.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 68.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 15.9N 71.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 76.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 81.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 83.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 051451 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE NORTH...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT. CINDY REMAINS A RATHER ASYMMETRIC STORM WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 45 KT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BECAUSE OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY. PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND A REEVALUATION OF THE LATEST SLOSH MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 27.0N 90.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.7N 90.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 89.4W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 31.8N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/1200Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 40.0N 79.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 43.0N 74.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 051456 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 051456 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 1500Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 051458 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...DORA STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 295 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 051523 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ077-080>082-051900- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AREA IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST JAMES...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER AND INCREASING TIDES...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CINDY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS.... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CINDYS TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...TORNADOES... ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT TODAY. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 051525 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL MAR CARIBE SE CONVIERTE EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE Y EL GOBIERNO DE HAITI EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PUERTO PRINCIPE HACIA EL OESTE. LOS INTERESES EN EL CARIBE CENTRAL Y EL OESTE DEL CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. LAS FOTOS DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO SE HA INTENSIFICADO EN TORMENTA TROPICAL. JULIO 5 ES LA FECHA MAS TEMPRANA EN LA HISTORIA EN QUE SE HAN FORMADO 4 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRE EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 66.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 355 MILLAS...570 KM...AL SUR DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM...13.3 NORTE...66.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 051530 *** HLSTAE FLZ007>014-051830- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB OR 29.59 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CINDY...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THESE AREAS. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF CINDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM. TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 2:04 PM...LOW 11:21 PM. WEDNESDAY: HIGH 7:18 AM AND 2:54 PM...LOW 10:18AM AND 11:56 PM. PORT ST. JOE... TODAY: LOW 9:08 PM. WEDNESDAY: HIGH 10:40 AM...LOW 9:49 PM. SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: LOW 8:48 PM. WEDNESDAY: HIGH 10:07 AM...LOW 9:29 PM. EAST PASS AT DESTIN... TODAY: LOW 11:19 PM. WEDNESDAY: HIGH 10:37 AM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD CONSIDER ENTERING THE WATER. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS CINDY MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 2 PM EDT. $$ JAMSKI ** WTNT83 KNHC 051546 *** TCVAT3 CINDY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM CINDY ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-052100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.050705T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-MSC045-047-059- GMZ530-550-555-570-575-052100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-052100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-052100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1003.050705T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-MSC059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 052100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...TAE...MOB...LIX... ** WTPN31 PHNC 051600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 18.3N2 104.3W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N2 104.3W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 19.0N0 105.7W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.7N7 107.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 20.2N4 109.1W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.6N8 110.7W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 21.0N3 114.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 21.0N3 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 21.0N3 121.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z9, 060400Z0, 061000Z7 AND 061600Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 051600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 18.3N2 104.3W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N2 104.3W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 19.0N0 105.7W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.7N7 107.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 20.2N4 109.1W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 051600 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.6N8 110.7W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 21.0N3 114.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 21.0N3 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 21.0N3 121.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z9, 060400Z0, 061000Z7 AND 061600Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 051600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 18.3N2 104.3W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N2 104.3W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 19.0N0 105.7W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.7N7 107.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 20.2N4 109.1W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.6N8 110.7W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 21.0N3 114.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 21.0N3 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 21.0N3 121.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z9, 060400Z0, 061000Z7 AND 061600Z3.// ** WTUS84 KLCH 051554 *** HLSLCH LAZ043>045-052>055-051700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...ACADIA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...UPPER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...IBERIA... LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION PARISHES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...ACADIA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY...UPPER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF ACADIANA CAN RESUME NORMAL ACTIVITIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF ACADIANA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH ACROSS ACADIANA. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES. $$ ERICKSON ** WTPH RPMM 051200 *** TTT WARNIG 06 AT 1200 05 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIAMTED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 061200 20.7 NORTH 115.2 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 051615 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...CINDY CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-CENTRAL DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN UN POCO HACIA EL ESTE... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIO HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA Y SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. TAMBIEN A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL OESTE DE INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA FUE DESCONTINUADO. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HACIA ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL CINDY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 90.4 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. CINDY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE CINDY ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. UN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE ANTES DE QUE EL SISTEMA ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADAS CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES CERCA Y AL ESTE DEL LUGAR DONDE EL CENTRO CRUCE LA COSTA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO Y PARTES DEL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...CON CANTIDADES MAYORES EN AREAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE SECTORES DEL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI...EL SUR DE ALABAMA Y EL OESTE DE FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...27.0 NORTE... 90.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 051703 *** HLSMOB ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-051930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1202 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH CINDY'S SURGE...COULD RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH...WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND...WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM CINDY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF CINDY'S PATH. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS CINDY APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM. $$ MCKEE/EVERSOLE ** WTUS84 KMOB 051705 CCA *** HLSMOB ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-051930- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH CINDY'S SURGE...COULD RESULT IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH...WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND...WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM CINDY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING... SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF CINDY'S PATH. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS CINDY APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM. $$ MCKEE/EVERSOLE ** WTNT80 EGRR 051721 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 103.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.07.2005 17.3N 103.4W WEAK 00UTC 06.07.2005 17.9N 105.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.07.2005 18.9N 106.8W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DENIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 65.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.07.2005 12.9N 65.5W WEAK 00UTC 06.07.2005 14.9N 68.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.07.2005 15.8N 72.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.07.2005 17.4N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.07.2005 17.6N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.07.2005 19.2N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.07.2005 20.8N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.07.2005 21.5N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.07.2005 22.3N 83.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 23.7N 84.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 25.3N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 27.2N 86.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.07.2005 29.3N 87.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM CINDY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 90.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.07.2005 26.5N 90.5W MODERATE 00UTC 06.07.2005 28.3N 90.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.07.2005 29.9N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.07.2005 31.9N 85.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.07.2005 33.5N 83.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.07.2005 33.9N 82.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.07.2005 36.7N 78.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 38.6N 74.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 40.2N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 42.1N 72.1W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051721 ** WTNT34 KNHC 051745 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...DENNIS MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. JULY 5 IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FOURTH NAMED STORM TO HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 67.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 051752 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DENNIS MOVIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A TRAVES DEL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA DESDE BARAHONA HACIA EL OESTE Y PARA EL SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE HAITI DESDE LA FRONTERA CON LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA Y PUERTO PRINCIPE HACIA EL OESTE. LOS INTERESES EN EL CARIBE CENTRAL Y EL OESTE DEL CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. JULIO 5 ES LA FECHA MAS TEMPRANA EN LA HISTORIA EN QUE SE HAN FORMADO 4 TORMENTAS CON NOMBRE EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DENNIS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 67.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS...540 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DENNIS SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM...13.8 NORTE...67.6 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 051753 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...CINDY A LITTLE STRONGER...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SHIP JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...BUT QUALITY CONTROL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO HIGH. NEVERTHELESS...CINDY APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS NEARING CINDY AND SHOULD GIVE MORE DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 051759 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...DORA JUST OFFSHORE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$