** WTUS84 KLCH 050641 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-0501000- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST...ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND REVIEW PREPAREDNESS AND EVACUATION PLANS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SPECIFIC TIDES FOR: HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE TUESDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY LOCATION 07/05/05 07/05/05 07/06/05 07/06/05 CALCASIEU PASS 4:56 AM 9:11 PM 5:28 AM 9:48 PM SABINE PASS 5:52 AM 9:57 PM 6:24 AM 10:34 PM SOUTHWEST PASS 6:38 AM 10:02 PM 7:10 AM 10:39 PM ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE COAST. HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 5 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. $$ WILEY ** WTIN20 DEMS 050725 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 05-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ========= ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.0N8 101.0W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 101.0W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.7N5 102.4W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.4N3 103.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.0N0 105.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.5N5 107.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.0N2 110.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 20.0N2 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.0N2 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z6, 051600Z2, 052200Z9 AND 060400Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DAY IN MANOP AND DTG.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 RRB *** 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.0N0 105.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.5N5 107.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.0N2 110.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 20.0N2 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 RRC *** --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.0N2 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z6, 051600Z2, 052200Z9 AND 060400Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DAY IN MANOP AND DTG.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.0N8 101.0W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 101.0W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.7N5 102.4W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.4N3 103.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.0N8 101.0W2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 101.0W2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.7N5 102.4W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.4N3 103.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.0N0 105.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.5N5 107.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.0N2 110.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 20.0N2 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.0N2 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z6, 051600Z2, 052200Z9 AND 060400Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DAY IN MANOP AND DTG.// ** WTPZ34 KNHC 050831 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...DORA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...103.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 050831 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005 AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 104.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.2N 106.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.7N 107.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 050831 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TOPS TO -80C JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12...FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN 6 HR AGO. DORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 96 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DORA GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR...AND THEN WESTWARD FROM 48-96 HR. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL TAKE DORA NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48-72 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM....WHILE THE NHC91 AND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE NHC91/BAM SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS LIKELY BEEN SLOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT DORA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THOSE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12-24 HR. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATER IN 36-48 HR. AS NOTED...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL WEAKEN DORA...INCLUDING THE GFDL THAT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AFTER 42 HR. THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN 36 HR...WITH WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS...BUT CALLS FOR A 45 KT PEAK INTENSITY IN 36 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.9N 103.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 104.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 106.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.7N 107.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.1N 109.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 050845 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.3N 90.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 34.9N 85.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 37.2N 82.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.1N 78.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 050850 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME TROPICAL CINDY...THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 050850 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.3N 90.5W 34 1 X X 35 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 5 11 31.0N 90.0W 15 9 1 1 26 PANAMA CITY FL X 2 7 4 13 32.5N 88.5W 1 11 7 2 21 PENSACOLA FL 2 8 6 2 18 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL 6 11 3 1 21 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 15 7 2 X 24 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 BURAS LA 27 2 X X 29 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 NEW ORLEANS LA 27 2 X X 29 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 NEW IBERIA LA 24 1 X 1 26 CHARLESTON SC X X X 5 5 PORT ARTHUR TX 5 3 X 1 9 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX 1 1 X 1 3 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 1 4 5 10 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W 4 6 4 1 15 VENICE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 30 X X X 30 TAMPA FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 91W 54 X X X 54 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 93W 18 X X 1 19 ST MARKS FL X X 3 7 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED C FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU D FROM 1AM THU TO 1AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 050850 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 TO 50 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY...THE THIRD NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING..BUT THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL. CINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY FORCE CINDY ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST AND DUE TO THE IN INITIAL MOTION AND LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.6N 90.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 27.3N 90.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0600Z 34.9N 85.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 09/0600Z 37.2N 82.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0600Z 40.1N 78.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050851 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 64.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 64.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 64.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050854 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES... 670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 64.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050854 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.5N 69.5W 53 1 X X 54 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 11 11 16.5N 72.5W X 35 X X 35 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 18.0N 75.0W X 6 19 1 26 MDPP 198N 707W X 6 5 1 12 SKPG 125N 717W 3 4 X X 7 MBJT 215N 712W X X 4 2 6 TNCC 122N 690W 15 X X X 15 MYMM 224N 730W X X 3 5 8 SVMG 110N 640W 4 X X X 4 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 5 5 MDSD 185N 697W 1 13 1 X 15 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 10 10 MDCB 176N 714W X 32 X X 32 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 10 10 MTPP 186N 724W X 19 7 X 26 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 6 6 MTCA 183N 738W X 14 13 1 28 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W X X 17 4 21 MARATHON FL X X X 8 8 MKJS 185N 779W X X 10 10 20 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 12 12 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUGM 200N 751W X X 18 4 22 KEY WEST FL X X X 8 8 MUCM 214N 779W X X 2 17 19 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 4 4 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 16 16 FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 11 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 050906 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 12.6N 64.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.2N 66.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 14.5N 69.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 72.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 18.0N 75.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.0N 84.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 050912 *** TCVAT3 CINDY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 .TROPICAL STORM CINDY LAC063-071-087-089-095-103-105-MSC045-047-059-GMZ530-051500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.050705T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-051500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1003.050705T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ450-455-470-475-051500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 SABINE-PASS-TX 29.69N 93.84W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ LAC045-051-057-075-101-109-113-GMZ455-475-550-555-570-575-051500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.050705T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ LAC045-051-057-075-101-109-GMZ550-555-570-575-051500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...MOB...LIX... ** WTUS84 KLIX 050919 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ077-080>082-051530- TROPICAL STORM****HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER THREE STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AREA NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST JAMES...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER AND INCREASING TIDES...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS.... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 730 AM CDT TUESDAY. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050924 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA...ACERCANDOSE A FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN DE VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 64.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 415 MILLAS...670 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION SE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...12.6 NORTE...64.4 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 050934 CCA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ077-080>082-051530- TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER THREE STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AREA NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... ASSUMPTION...ASCENSION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST JAMES...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA...ST TAMMANY AND FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HARRISON...HANCOCK...JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 39 MPH OR HIGHER AND INCREASING TIDES...ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS.... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 730 AM CDT TUESDAY. $$ CORRECTED WORDING ** WTPH20 RPMM 050600 *** T T T WARNING 05 AT 0600 05 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 051000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 17.7N5 102.8W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N5 102.8W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.5N4 104.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 19.2N2 106.2W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.7N7 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 20.1N3 109.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 20.5N7 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 20.1N3 121.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z2, 052200Z9, 060400Z0 AND 061000Z7.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 051000 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 20.1N3 109.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 20.5N7 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 20.1N3 121.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z2, 052200Z9, 060400Z0 AND 061000Z7.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 051000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 17.7N5 102.8W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N5 102.8W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.5N4 104.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 19.2N2 106.2W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.7N7 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 051000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 17.7N5 102.8W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N5 102.8W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.5N4 104.6W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 19.2N2 106.2W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.7N7 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 20.1N3 109.4W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 20.5N7 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 20.1N3 121.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z2, 052200Z9, 060400Z0 AND 061000Z7.// ** WTUS84 KLCH 051012 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-0501300- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 500 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...IBERIA... LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. RESIDENTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. SPECIFIC TIDES FOR SOUTHWEST PASS: HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE TUESDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY 07/05/05 07/05/05 07/06/05 07/06/05 6:38 AM 10:02 PM 7:10 AM 10:39 PM ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST. RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 8 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. $$ WILEY ** WTPH RPMM 050600 *** TTT WARNIG 05 AT 0600 05 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIAMTED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEOPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTUS84 KLCH 051048 *** HLSLCH LAZ043>045-052>055-051400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 547 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE LOWER ST. MARTIN ST. MARY UPPER ST. MARTIN VERMILION ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...IBERIA... LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 39 MPH...ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. RESIDENTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR RISING TIDES...INCREASING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. SPECIFIC TIDES FOR SOUTHWEST PASS: HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE TUESDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY 07/05/05 07/05/05 07/06/05 07/06/05 6:38 AM 10:02 PM 7:10 AM 10:39 PM ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE COAST. RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 8 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. $$ WILEY $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 051102 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-051400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THE WATCH IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS MAY BE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF CINDY'S PATH. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS CINDY APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ FAULKNER ** WTUS84 KMOB 051104 CCA *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-051400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...COR HEADING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CINDY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THE WATCH IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING NEAR LOW PLACES...SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS IN THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND IN THE WIND. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST TIDES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS MAY BE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SURF AND ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL CINDY MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF CINDY'S PATH. AS A RESULT...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR CINDY'S PATH AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS CINDY APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES IS TYPICALLY EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ FAULKNER ** WTNT33 KNHC 051144 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CINDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...CINDY HEADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. T 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CINDY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE NIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 051153 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...DORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...103.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$