** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 050031 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TRES TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO SUR-CENTRAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA SABINE PASS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA PARA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES FUE ESTIMADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.5 OESTE O COMO A 395 MILLAS AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA FORTALECERSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...BARCOS Y BOYAS DE NOAA LOCALIZADOS AL NORTE Y NORESTE DEL CENTRO HAN REPORTADO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS ENTRE 33 A 38 MPH...O JUSTO POR DEBAJO DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...23.3 NORTE... 89.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 050057 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-050400- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 8 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND REVIEW PREPAREDNESS AND EVACUATION PLANS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SPECIFIC TIDES FOR: LOW TIDE HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE LOCATION: TIME/DATE TIME/DATE TIME/DATE CALCASIEU PASS 8:32 PM 4:56 AM 9:11 PM 07/04/05 07/05/05 07/05/05 SABINE PASS 9:18 PM 5:52 AM 9:57 PM 07/04/05 07/05/05 07/05/05 SOUTHWEST PASS 9:23 PM 6:38 AM 10:02 PM 07/04/05 07/05/05 07/05/05 ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... LOCAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES NORTHWARD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING CENTER SHOULD MOVE INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVER ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND1100 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ 20 ** WTNT23 KNHC 050225 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 89.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 89.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.6N 90.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N 90.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.4N 91.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.0N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N 88.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 050226 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.6N 90.9W 43 X X X 43 NEW IBERIA LA 5 22 1 X 28 29.4N 91.2W 13 16 1 X 30 PORT ARTHUR TX 1 15 2 1 19 31.0N 90.7W X 17 4 2 23 GALVESTON TX 1 9 2 2 14 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X 5 3 2 10 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 1 3 5 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 5 6 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 4 5 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 6 8 GULF 29N 87W X 1 5 4 10 PENSACOLA FL X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 89W 16 4 1 X 21 MOBILE AL X 4 8 4 16 GULF 28N 91W 38 1 X X 39 GULFPORT MS X 10 6 3 19 GULF 28N 93W 21 4 1 X 26 BURAS LA 5 14 2 1 22 GULF 28N 95W 1 4 2 2 9 NEW ORLEANS LA 3 18 2 1 24 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED C FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED D FROM 7PM WED TO 7PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050228 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005 0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 63.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 45SE 0SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 63.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050228 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.7N 68.3W 51 1 X X 52 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 9 9 16.3N 71.4W X 35 X X 35 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 17.8N 74.4W X 3 23 1 27 TJSJ 184N 661W 1 1 X X 2 SKPG 125N 717W X 2 X X 2 MDPP 198N 707W X 5 9 1 15 TNCC 122N 690W 5 1 X X 6 MBJT 215N 712W X X 4 3 7 SVMG 110N 640W 2 X X X 2 MYMM 224N 730W X X 2 7 9 TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 7 7 TVSV 131N 612W 22 X X X 22 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 12 12 80400 157N 636W 3 X X X 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 13 13 TJPS 180N 666W 3 2 1 X 6 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 8 8 MDSD 185N 697W X 19 2 1 22 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4 MDCB 176N 714W X 28 4 X 32 SAN JUAN PR 1 1 X X 2 MTPP 186N 724W X 11 16 X 27 PONCE PR 3 2 1 X 6 MTCA 183N 738W X 4 23 1 28 MARATHON FL X X X 9 9 MKJP 179N 768W X X 14 6 20 MIAMI FL X X X 6 6 MKJS 185N 779W X X 6 13 19 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 10 10 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 MUGM 200N 751W X X 16 7 23 KEY WEST FL X X X 8 8 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 19 20 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 5 5 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 16 16 FT MYERS FL X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 050229 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 050231 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 050235 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM... SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR......AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N... 89.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050240 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA AND ABOUT 665 MILES... 1070 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.5 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 050255 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INNER CORE...WHILE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. A SHIP NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AROUND 18Z...BUT THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION PRECLUDES INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AS IT PASSES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOT AS RESTRICTED AS IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...AND CIRRUS HAS BEEN NOTED PUSHING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...A BATTLE EXISTS BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING OUT FOR THE MOST PART...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THAT TREND. FOR THAT REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND SSTS ARE NEAR 29C. OF COURSE ...BY 26 HOURS...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUSIANA DURING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...SO THERE MAY BE ONE LAST DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION AT THAT TIME WHICH COULD ALLOW TH SYSTEM TO REACH 50 KT OR SO INTENSITY. THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.9N 89.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 90.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 27.6N 90.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.4N 91.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 90.7W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 09/0000Z 33.5N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 10/0000Z 34.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 050307 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 SATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND AN EARLIER 31-KT WIND REPORT FROM ST. LUCIA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WHEN THE CENTER NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND THE BAM MODELS BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL MOEELS TAKING THE STORM OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN 96 HOURS OR SO. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST TOO LARGE FOR SUCH A SMALL CIRCULATION TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ...WHICH BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO ABOUT 70 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 80 KT IN 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.5N 63.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W 65 KT...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA 96HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W 65 KT...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA 120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 050314 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL GOLFO DE MEXICO NORTE-CENTRAL... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA SABINE PASS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA PARA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.7 OESTE O COMO A 360 MILLAS... 580 KM...AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA FORTALECERSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA LA DEPRESION MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y PROVEERA CON UN MEJOR ESTIMADO DE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...23.9 NORTE... 89.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 050319 *** HLSLIX LAZ059-061-063-065>069-050930- TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1015 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 13 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. MEANWHILE... CHECK ON PERSONAL AND FAMILY HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS AND SUPPLIES. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD REVIEW PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES AND BE READY TO SET INTO ACTION IF YOUR AREA IS PLACED UNDER A WARNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS.... IN 36 HOURS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND GUSTY POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PARISHE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUESDAY. $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 050320 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING AROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN WHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE... ANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48 HOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 050324 *** TCVAT3 THREE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LAC023-045-051-057-075-101-109-113-GMZ450-455-470-475-550-555-570- 575-050900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005 SABINE-PASS-TX 29.69N 93.84W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX... ** WTPZ34 KNHC 050329 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DORA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...101.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 050333 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-050700- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1035 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS IN ACADIA...CALCASIEU... CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...SAINT MARY...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...AND VERMILION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST...ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM... SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS POSITION WAS ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR......AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND REVIEW PREPAREDNESS AND EVACUATION PLANS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL AROUND THE VERMILION BAY AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SPECIFIC TIDES FOR: HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE HIGH TIDE LOW TIDE TUESDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY LOCATION 07/05/05 07/05/05 07/06/05 07/06/05 CALCASIEU PASS 4:56 AM 9:11 PM 5:28 AM 9:48 PM SABINE PASS 5:52 AM 9:57 PM 6:24 AM 10:34 PM SOUTHWEST PASS 6:38 AM 10:02 PM 7:10 AM 10:39 PM ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NO TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE COAST. HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEAR THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...RIVERS... ALL RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 2 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. $$ 20 ** WTPH20 RPMM 050000 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 0000 05 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060000 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 070000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050351 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...CUARTA DEPRESION TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA SE DESARROLLA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... PODRIA REQUERIRSE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA PARA TEMPRANO EL MARTES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL CUATRO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 63.1 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE GRENADA Y COMO A 665 MILLAS...1070 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE LA COSTA SUR DE LA ESPANOLA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIAN CONVERTIRSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM...12.5 NORTE...63.1 OESTE. MOVIMENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPH RPLL 050000 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 0000 05 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.8N 122.7E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060000 17.8N 118.7E AND AT 070000 12.8N 116.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 RRC *** DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 21.0N3 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z9, 051000Z6, 051600Z2 AND 052200Z9.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 050530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 100.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.07.2005 16.2N 100.6W MODERATE 12UTC 05.07.2005 17.0N 102.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 89.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.07.2005 23.7N 89.6W WEAK 12UTC 05.07.2005 25.3N 91.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.07.2005 27.1N 91.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.07.2005 28.7N 90.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.07.2005 30.1N 89.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.07.2005 31.7N 88.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.07.2005 33.0N 87.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.07.2005 34.4N 85.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.07.2005 37.0N 83.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 39.0N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 62.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.07.2005 12.6N 62.6W WEAK 12UTC 05.07.2005 13.5N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.07.2005 14.6N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.07.2005 14.7N 71.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.07.2005 16.7N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.07.2005 18.5N 77.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.07.2005 19.7N 77.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.07.2005 20.8N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.07.2005 22.1N 80.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.07.2005 24.0N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.07.2005 25.1N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.07.2005 26.9N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2005 29.2N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050530 ** WTPZ34 KNHC 050536 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DORA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... AT 11 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FROM ZIHUATANEJO EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...102.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 050537 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 050546 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MARTES 5 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA SABINE PASS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA PARA TEMPRANO EN LA MANANA DEL MARTES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 90.0 OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS...AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA DEPRESION PODRIA FORTALECERSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL HOY. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN RUTA PARA INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1 AM CDT...24.5 NORTE... 90.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 050556 *** HLSLIX LAZ059-061-063-065>069-050930- TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. MEANWHILE... CHECK ON PERSONAL AND FAMILY HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS AND SUPPLIES. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...SHOULD REVIEW PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES AND BE READY TO SET INTO ACTION IF YOUR AREA IS PLACED UNDER A WARNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS.... IN 36 HOURS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND GUSTY POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PARISHES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUESDAY. $$