** WTPZ34 KNHC 042031 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO... AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 042033 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 2100Z MON JUL 04 2005 AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 100.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 100.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.1N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 104.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 042036 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 2100Z MON JUL 04 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 89.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 89.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.2N 90.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.4N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.2N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.5N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N 87.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 89.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 042036 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DEPRESSION TRYING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH OF YUCATAN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES... 700 KM... SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 042037 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.5N 91.0W 43 X X X 43 GALVESTON TX X 12 5 2 19 28.4N 91.9W 10 21 X X 31 FREEPORT TX X 8 5 2 15 30.2N 92.0W X 20 4 1 25 PORT O CONNOR TX X 2 5 3 10 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 2 3 5 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 6 10 GULF 29N 87W X 1 3 4 8 MOBILE AL X 2 6 5 13 GULF 28N 89W 8 9 1 1 19 GULFPORT MS X 6 7 3 16 GULF 28N 91W 19 13 X X 32 BURAS LA 1 14 3 1 19 GULF 28N 93W 8 19 1 X 28 NEW ORLEANS LA X 16 4 1 21 GULF 28N 95W X 11 3 2 16 NEW IBERIA LA X 22 3 1 26 GULF 27N 96W X 3 2 3 8 PORT ARTHUR TX X 15 5 2 22 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 1 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 042038 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY...ACAPULCO RADAR...AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION...35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 2 OF THE 3 AGENCIES...AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT FROM THE WEST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...310/8. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED MID/UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INCREASINGLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COMBINATION OF THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE COAST SHOULD HINDER FURTHER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK BRUSHING THE COAST. DORA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.9N 100.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.1N 102.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 18.9N 104.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 19.3N 105.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 042047 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 TODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST. AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD REPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. MOREOVER...THE MORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS OUTPUT. THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 22.8N 89.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 90.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 91.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 28.4N 91.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 30.2N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1800Z 35.0N 87.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 042110 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TRATANDO DE VOLVERSE A FORMAR AL NORTE DE YUCATAN...SE EMITIERON VIGILANCIAS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA SABINE PASS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS TIERRA ADENTRO...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES FUE ESTIMADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.2 OESTE O COMO A 435 MILLAS... 700 KILOMETROS... AL SUR DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTE. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE FORTALECERSE EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL EXTREMO NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS ASOCIADAS CON LA DEPRESION. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 4 PM CDT...22.8 NORTE...89.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPH RPLL 041800 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1800 04 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATTELITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.4N 124.1E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 05 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051800 16.3N 120.3E AND AT 061800 18.7N 118.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7N4 100.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 100.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 17.5N3 101.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.9N8 104.3W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.3N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.0N2 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 21.0N3 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z9, 051000Z6, 051600Z2 AND 052200Z9.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7N4 100.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 100.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 17.5N3 101.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.9N8 104.3W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.3N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.0N2 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DORA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7N4 100.3W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 100.3W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 17.5N3 101.5W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.9N8 104.3W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.3N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.0N2 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 20.5N7 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 21.0N3 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z9, 051000Z6, 051600Z2 AND 052200Z9.// ** WTUS84 KLIX 042159 *** HLSLIX LAZ059-061-063-065>069-050400- TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE POSTED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES... TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON AND PLAQUEMINES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 12 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. MEANWHILE... CHECK ON PERSONAL AND FAMILY HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS KITS AND SUPPLIES. RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE HURRICEN PROTECTION LEVEES SHOULD REVIEW PREPAREDNESS PROCEDURES AND BE READY TO SET INTO ACTION IF YOUR AREA IS PLACED UNDER A WARNING. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS.... IN 36 HOURS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND GUSTY POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PARISHES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DUE TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM CDT MONDAY. $$ 24 ** WTNT33 KNHC 042339 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHIPS AND NOAA BUOYS LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 33 TO 38 MPH...OR JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...23.3 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 042348 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DORA SKIRTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES ... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$