** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 041434 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 1500Z MON JUL 04 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 99.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 99.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.6N 100.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.3N 101.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.1N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 99.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DEPRESSION CENTER RELOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 125 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR OR ON THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 041442 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 1500Z MON JUL 04 2005 INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 89.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.9N 90.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.6N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 25SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.7N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 25SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 89.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 89.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 041442 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE LOCATION OF A CENTER...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM MERIDA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MY ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY CONTINUITY...AND THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE VALUES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER WILL REFORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES AND MOVES INTO THE GULF...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING REGIME DOES NOT LOOK TOO COMPLICATED...DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT...RANGING FROM TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 20.7N 89.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.9N 90.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 91.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 25.7N 93.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 30.5N 93.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 89.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 041442 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.6N 91.6W 41 X X X 41 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 10 7 17 25.7N 93.0W 5 24 1 X 30 GALVESTON TX X 2 12 4 18 27.5N 93.5W X 15 7 1 23 FREEPORT TX X 3 12 4 19 MMCZ 205N 869W 2 X X X 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X 3 11 3 17 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 2 8 4 14 MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X 3 4 3 10 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 4 5 9 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X 3 9 4 16 GULFPORT MS X X 1 7 8 GULF 28N 93W X 9 9 3 21 BURAS LA X X 2 8 10 GULF 28N 95W X 9 10 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 9 11 GULF 27N 96W X 11 6 2 19 NEW IBERIA LA X X 6 8 14 GULF 25N 96W X 11 2 1 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 041446 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DEPRESSION HAS BECOME POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.7 N... 89.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 041454 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. TWO EARLIER PARTIAL TRMM AND SSM/I OVERPASSES ALSO HELPED TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER WAS TUCKED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO DEPICTS THE STRONGEST OF THE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DEPRESSION ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE COLDEST TOPS SITUATED NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT FROM THE FIX AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE BANDING DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/6. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A PLAYER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD...ALONG OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS INDUCED A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...PLACING IT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE IF NOT OVER THE COAST...CAUSING A WEAKENING TREND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 15.9N 99.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 16.6N 100.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.3N 101.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 18.1N 102.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 041511 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION SE HA TORNADO POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... INTERESES EN LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR Y EL OESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.2 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 55 MILLAS...85 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE PROGRESO MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO DENTRO DEL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEP[RESION PODRIA CONVERTIRES EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL MARTES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL CENTRO Y NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA...ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS TOTALES DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...20.7 NORTE...89.2 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 041200 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1200 04 JULY TOPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AT 061200 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AND AT 071200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.6N2 99.3W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 99.3W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 16.6N3 100.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.3N1 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.9N8 104.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 19.7N7 107.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 20.0N2 110.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 20.5N7 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z8, 050400Z9, 051000Z6 AND 051600Z2.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.6N2 99.3W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 99.3W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 16.6N3 100.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.3N1 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.9N8 104.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.6N2 99.3W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 99.3W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 16.6N3 100.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.3N1 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.1N0 102.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.9N8 104.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 19.7N7 107.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 20.0N2 110.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 20.5N7 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z8, 050400Z9, 051000Z6 AND 051600Z2.// ** WTPH RPLL 041200 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1200 04 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.6N 125.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 14.9N 122.9E AT 061200 16.3N 119.9E AND AT 071200 17.9N 116.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 041657 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 100.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.07.2005 15.5N 100.1W MODERATE 00UTC 05.07.2005 15.8N 100.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.07.2005 16.7N 101.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 88.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.07.2005 20.5N 88.3W WEAK 00UTC 05.07.2005 21.8N 90.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.07.2005 23.2N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.07.2005 25.2N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.07.2005 27.1N 93.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.07.2005 28.7N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.07.2005 29.4N 94.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 58.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.07.2005 12.8N 58.4W WEAK 00UTC 05.07.2005 13.8N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.07.2005 15.4N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.07.2005 17.9N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.07.2005 19.0N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.07.2005 20.3N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.07.2005 22.0N 72.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.07.2005 23.6N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.07.2005 23.7N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.07.2005 24.7N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.07.2005 25.3N 78.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.07.2005 26.0N 78.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.07.2005 26.5N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041657 ** WTNT63 KNHC 041731 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MAY BE REFORMING TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLAN IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE COMPLETE INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 041751 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...PASSING JUST SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...100.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS $$