** WTIN20 DEMS 040620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 04-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ========= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040650 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES MOVIENDOSE TIERRA ADENTRO EN LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN AL SUR HACIA CHETUMAL...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. ESTE AVISO PUEDE SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. INTERESES AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.8 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 65 MILLAS...105 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE NORESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE...CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE HOY MIENTRAS EL CENTRO ESTA SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 1 M CDT...19.3 NORTE...87.8 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 040831 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.4N 90.7W 42 X X X 42 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 4 11 15 24.1N 92.1W 3 25 1 X 29 GALVESTON TX X X 8 8 16 26.2N 93.2W X 11 12 1 24 FREEPORT TX X X 9 8 17 MMCZ 205N 869W 59 X X 1 60 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 10 6 16 MMSO 238N 982W X X 1 4 5 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 8 6 14 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X 1 8 4 13 MMMD 210N 897W 61 X X X 61 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 7 9 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X X 8 6 14 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 GULF 28N 93W X 1 13 4 18 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 95W X X 14 5 19 BURAS LA X X 1 8 9 GULF 27N 96W X 2 13 3 18 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10 GULF 25N 96W X 7 8 2 17 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 10 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 040832 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 040833 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0900Z MON JUL 04 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 88.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 88.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.4N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.1N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 25SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 26.2N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 33.0N 90.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 040835 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...15.4 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 040835 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0900Z MON JUL 04 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.7N 102.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 040859 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN... INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THEM SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE MODELS ARE RESPONDING TO DRY AIR CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR TO THE DISTORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.6N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.1N 92.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 26.2N 93.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 93.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 040904 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0900Z MON JUL 04 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE DISSIPATING AT 96 HR AND TO CHANGE REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATING AT 120 HR... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.7N 102.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040910 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2A DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.1 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE PROGRESO MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PRXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HOY...Y DENTRO DEL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS EL CENTRO PERMANECE SOBRE TIERRA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL CENTRO Y NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...19.6 NORTE...88.1 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040911 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT LUNES 4 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.1 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. ESTO ES TAMBIEN COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE PROGRESO MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PRXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO HOY...Y DENTRO DEL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE O EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD MIENTRAS EL CENTRO PERMANECE SOBRE TIERRA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL CENTRO Y NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...19.6 NORTE...88.1 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 040919 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF COLD CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -85C...WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO SHOWING THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST AT ALMOST ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE BIGGEST SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS HOW FAR WILL THE CENTER BE FROM SHORE...AS ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SLOW OR STOP DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CENTER WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND CALLS FOR 55 KT WINDS IN 36 KT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAT THE 55-60 KT FORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE 60-65 KT FORECAST BY THE GFDL. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.4N 100.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 17.7N 102.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 040600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 04 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 060600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTHONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST AND AT 070600 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 040600 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 0600 04 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 060600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST AND AT 070600 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPZ34 KNHC 041154 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPREADING HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$