** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040012 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT DOMINGO 3 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA MEJOR ORGANIZADA......SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE YUCATAN... A LAS 6:30 PM CDT...2330Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN AL SUR HACIA CHETUMAL...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. INTERESES AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 80 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 140 MILLAS...225 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE...CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ES POSIBLE UN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES CE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES DEL CICLON SE MUEVA A TIERRA EL LUNES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 7 PM CDT...18.6 NORTE...87.2 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040012 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT DOMINGO 3 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA MEJOR ORGANIZADA... ...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE YUCATAN... A LAS 6:30 PM CDT...2330Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN AL SUR HACIA CHETUMAL...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. INTERESES AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 80 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 140 MILLAS...225 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE...CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ES POSIBLE UN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES CE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES DEL CICLON SE MUEVA A TIERRA EL LUNES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 7 PM CDT...18.6 NORTE...87.2 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 040234 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATED BY THE LAST RECON REPORT... WHICH ALSO INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB -- A DROP OF 2 MB IN 2.5 HOURS. RADAR REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATED SIGNIFICANT BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION... THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT..MAINLY TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE RIGHT...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND/OR SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AGREE THAT THE LATTER FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FACTOR AS IT WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING EAST-WEST ALONG 28N LATITUDE FROM FLORIDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...BUT IN ITS WAKE LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ALONG 94-95W LONGITUDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE FOR THE CYCLONE TO TAKE UNTIL IT NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST AND IS TURNED SHARPLY NORTHEAST OR EVEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND TO THE LEFT OF THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RUN. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER THE YUCATAN THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OF LESS THAN 8 KT AND WARM SSTS NEAR 29C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACTUALLY FAVORS MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR... WHICH IS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OF 30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY POSSIBLY GETTING GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AFTER 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 18.9N 87.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.1N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1200Z 22.9N 91.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 93.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 94.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 93.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0000Z 33.0N 91.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 040234 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 0300Z MON JUL 04 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL... INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 87.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 87.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 91.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 25SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.0N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 33.0N 91.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 040241 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL... INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 040242 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.1N 90.1W 41 X X X 41 NEW IBERIA LA X X 1 9 10 22.9N 91.8W 2 27 X X 29 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 12 13 25.0N 93.3W X 9 14 1 24 GALVESTON TX X X 3 11 14 MMCZ 205N 869W 36 X X X 36 FREEPORT TX X X 4 11 15 MZBZ 175N 883W 12 X X X 12 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 5 10 15 MMSO 238N 982W X X 4 5 9 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 4 10 14 MMTM 222N 979W X X 2 4 6 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 8 7 15 MMTX 210N 974W X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 3 3 MMFR 185N 926W 1 X X 1 2 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 6 7 MMMD 210N 897W 44 X X X 44 GULF 28N 91W X X 4 8 12 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 8 8 16 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 95W X X 8 9 17 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5 GULF 27N 96W X X 11 6 17 BURAS LA X X X 7 7 GULF 25N 96W X 2 13 3 18 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 8 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN21 PHNC 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/040251ZJUL05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030251ZJUL05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 99.2W TO 16.2N 102.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 032045Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 99.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 99.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 99.4W, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVEMENT IN THE SURFACE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PROBABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIM- ATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VORTICITY AND SURFACE IN- FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050300Z.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 040310 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT DOMINGO 3 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA MEJOR ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA D EYUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN AL SUR HACIA CHETUMAL...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS BANCO CHINCHORRO. INTERESES AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN ESTAR MONITOREANDO DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.5 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 115 MILLAS...190 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE...CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN VELOCIDAD EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ES POSIBLE UN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ANTES CE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES DEL CICLON SE MUEVA A TIERRA EL LUNES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 7 PM CDT...18.9 NORTE...87.5 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 040358 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0400Z MON JUL 04 2005 AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.6W AT 04/0400Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.6W AT 04/0400Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 99.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 99.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 040405 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO... AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM PDT...0400Z...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR INFORMATION FROM ACAPULCO INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY PASS NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. REPEATING THE 9 PM PDT POSITION...14.8 N... 99.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 040407 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005 0400Z MON JUL 04 2005 CORRECTED ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY GUSTS TO 40 KT AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. AT 900 PM PDT...0400Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.6W AT 04/0400Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.6W AT 04/0400Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 99.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 99.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 040426 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 04/00Z WERE A CONSENSUS T1.5/25 KT...BUT RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND A 04/0014Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY 36 HOURS OR SO. A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO MEXICAN COAST IN 24-36 HOURS...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. TD-3E IS A SMALL AND COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...A STRONG BURST OF -75 TO -80C TOPS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT OUTFLOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AFTERWARDS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS CYCLONE FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0400Z 14.8N 99.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 040528 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 99.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.07.2005 14.3N 99.4W WEAK 12UTC 04.07.2005 14.2N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.07.2005 15.2N 101.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.07.2005 15.3N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 87.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.07.2005 18.2N 87.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.07.2005 19.4N 88.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.07.2005 20.1N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.07.2005 19.9N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040528 ** WTNT33 KNHC 040540 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVING ONSHORE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL... INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ34 KNHC 040541 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SEL TELMO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR INFORMATION FROM ACAPULCO INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ... 11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY PASS NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...15.2 N... 99.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$