** WTNT23 KNHC 032038 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005 2100Z SUN JUL 03 2005 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 87.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 032044 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...THIRD DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 032056 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THE EXPECTATION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER YUCATAN TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY. INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS IT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. NOTWITHSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 18.4N 87.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 032108 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDP DOMINGO 3 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA TERCERA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUS 87.1 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 80 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 145 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QIE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. NO SE PRONOSTICA UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN FUERZA HASTA TEMPRANO EL LUNES...A MEDIDA QIE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA TIERRA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 4 PM CDT...18.4 NORTE...87.1 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 032109 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDP DOMINGO 3 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA TERCERA DEPRESION TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO AL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN...Y EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE LA TORMENTA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. REPORTES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LAS OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE HA FORMADO JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL TRES ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.4 NORTE...LONGITUS 87.1 OESTE O ALREDEDOR DE 80 MILLAS...125 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CHETUMAL MEXICO Y ALREDEDOR DE 145 MILLAS...235 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE COZUMEL MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QIE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA SE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR..CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. NO SE PRONOSTICA UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN FUERZA HASTA TEMPRANO EL LUNES...A MEDIDA QIE EL SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA TIERRA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 4 PM CDT...18.4 NORTE...87.1 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO ES HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT63 KNHC 032328 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AT 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL... INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1007 MB AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 PM CDT... 0000Z...AND NHC FORECAST GRAPHICS PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED IMMEDIATELY TO REFLECT THE NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 032353 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YUCATAN... A 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL...INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH ...6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND ON MONDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$