** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT42 KNHC 300233 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005 LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF BRET IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND. WITH THIS...BRET IS LOSING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THESE RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 22.3N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 30/1200Z 23.0N 98.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 300233 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022005 0300Z THU JUN 30 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 98.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 98.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 98.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 300235 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET DISSIPATING WEST OF TAMPICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BRET IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 98.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 300235 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W 43 X X X 43 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 6 X X X 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI C FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI D FROM 7PM FRI TO 7PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 300535 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.06.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 107.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.06.2005 14.6N 107.2W WEAK 12UTC 30.06.2005 14.8N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.07.2005 15.7N 110.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.07.2005 16.2N 111.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.07.2005 17.3N 112.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 97.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.06.2005 22.2N 97.9W WEAK 12UTC 30.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300535