** WTNT22 KNHC 292030 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022005 2100Z WED JUN 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 98.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 98.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 100.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 98.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 292030 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005 BRET HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FATHER INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A FEW WEATHER STATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE DECREASING. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...MUD SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 98.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 292031 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W 16 X X X 16 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 292031 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BRET IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 98.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$