** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT32 KNHC 291435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF BRET FARTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 291438 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT BRET HAS MOVED INLAND JUST SOUTH OF...OR VERY NEAR...TUXPAN. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND BRET IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE MIGHT BE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER WATER. BRET IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.0N 97.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 24HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 291438 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022005 1500Z WED JUN 29 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 97.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 97.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 97.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 98.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 97.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 291439 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W 2 X X X 2 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 63 X X X 63 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU C FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI D FROM 7AM FRI TO 7AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 291435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF BRET FARTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 291435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND... AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF BRET FARTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 291452 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL BRET ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MIERCOLES 29 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...BRET SE DEBILITA Y CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE MAS TIERRA ADENTRO... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA MEXICO HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BRET FUE LOCALIZADO POR OBSERVACIONES DE SUPERFICIE EN MEXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 97.6 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS... 20 KM...AL OESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAIGA EL CENTRO DE BRET AUN MAS TIERRA ADENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL AGUA. BRET POSIBLEMENTE SE DISIPARA EN UN DIA O MAS TARDE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS...ASOCIADAS CON BRET. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...21.0 NORTE... 97.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 291653 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.7N 106.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.06.2005 14.7N 106.3W WEAK 00UTC 30.06.2005 14.6N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.06.2005 15.2N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.07.2005 15.7N 110.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.07.2005 16.5N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.07.2005 17.6N 112.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM BRET ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 96.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.06.2005 21.2N 96.9W WEAK 00UTC 30.06.2005 22.0N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291653