** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 290222 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 0300Z WED JUN 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.3W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.3W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 106.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.3N 106.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 105.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 290222 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CALVIN HAS DEGENERATED TO A CLOUD SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS SPORADIC CONVECTION WITHIN THE LARGER LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF CALVIN...THERE IS INSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THIS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CALVIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/5...AS CALVIN APPEARS TO BE ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE WITHIN THE BROADER LOW. A CONTINUED TURN TO THE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.8N 105.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.1N 106.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 30/0000Z 13.3N 106.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 30/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 290229 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 ...BRET MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES... 95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRET IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SOMETIME TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BRET REACHES THE COASTLINE. BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 95.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 290231 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005 ON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BRET NEAR 00Z...THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 1005 MB...THAT THE SEA STATE LOOKED LESS DISTURBED THAN IT HAD BEEN...AND THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAD DETERIORATED. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TREND HAS STALLED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CDO FEATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED OVERALL THIS EVENING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AGAIN NOW. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH ARE VERY WARM. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE CAUTION...HOWEVER...IS THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SUCH SYSTEMS CAN SPIN UP...OR DOWN...VERY QUICKLY. THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BRET MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS SHOULD KEEP BRET ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING BRET TO STALL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 850 MB EVOLUTION IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. BECAUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET WILL BE APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 20.0N 95.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 20.9N 97.4W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 290231 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022005 0300Z WED JUN 29 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 95.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 95.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.9N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 290232 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.9N 97.4W 46 X X X 46 MMTM 222N 979W 17 6 X X 23 21.5N 98.5W 24 3 X X 27 MMTX 210N 974W 45 X X X 45 99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W X 10 X X 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU C FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU D FROM 7PM THU TO 7PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 290250 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BRET ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MARTES 28 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...BRET MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA LA COSTA DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE VERACRUZ HASTA TAMPICO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BRET ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 95.9 OESTE O CERCA DE 60 MILLAS...95 KM...AL NOR-NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO Y CERCA DE 120 MILLAS...190 KM...AL SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. BRET SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA SE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE BRET AFECTE EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN ALGUN MOMENTO DEL DIA DE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ADICIONAL ANTES DE QUE LLEGUE A LA COSTA. BRET ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MUY PEQUENA...CON VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTENDIENDOSE HACIA FUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KM DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA TOTAL DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES LOCALMENTE MAYORES SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS...SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BRET. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM...20.0 NORTE...95.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.0N6 105.0W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 105.0W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.1N6 106.1W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 13.3N7 106.8W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 12.5N8 106.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 9 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.0N6 105.0W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 105.0W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.1N6 106.1W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 13.3N7 106.8W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 12.5N8 106.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 9 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 290510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.06.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 105.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.06.2005 15.6N 105.3W WEAK 12UTC 29.06.2005 14.7N 106.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.06.2005 14.7N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.06.2005 15.1N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.07.2005 15.4N 111.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.07.2005 15.7N 112.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 7.9N 90.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.06.2005 7.9N 90.4W WEAK 12UTC 29.06.2005 7.9N 90.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 8.7N 90.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.06.2005 10.2N 91.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.07.2005 11.1N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.07.2005 11.3N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.07.2005 11.5N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.07.2005 12.2N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.07.2005 12.7N 95.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.07.2005 12.9N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.07.2005 13.7N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.07.2005 14.4N 97.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.07.2005 14.7N 98.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM BRET ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 95.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.06.2005 20.3N 95.3W WEAK 12UTC 29.06.2005 21.2N 96.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 21.9N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 13.7N 39.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.07.2005 13.7N 39.6W WEAK 12UTC 02.07.2005 14.0N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.07.2005 14.7N 44.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.07.2005 15.4N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.07.2005 16.4N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290510 ** WTNT32 KNHC 290559 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY ONSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ... 13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRET IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BRET REACHES THE COASTLINE. BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 290559 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005 ...BRET MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY ONSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ... 13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRET IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BRET REACHES THE COASTLINE. BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$