** WTIN20 DEMS 280600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 28-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA, NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ======== ** WTIN20 DEMS 280730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 28-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A LAND DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. IT LAY CENTRED AT 280300 UTC CLOSE TO JAMSHEDPUR (42798). LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA, CONVECTIVE CLOUD ALSO SEEN OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ======== ** WTIN20 DEMS 280730 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 28-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) REVISED ------- A LAND DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. IT LAY CENTRED AT 280300 UTC CLOSE TO JAMSHEDPUR (42798). LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA, CONVECTIVE CLOUD ALSO SEEN OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ======== ** WTPZ33 KNHC 280824 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 ...CALVIN CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 280824 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 0900Z TUE JUN 28 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 102.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 280823 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 CALVIN REMAINS AN UGLY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE NOTED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS ABOUT 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE WEAKER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. CALVIN REMAINS ON TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SHIFT IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...OR TO THE LEFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS FILLED IN AND DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT CALVIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WAS NOTED UPSTREAM EAST OF ACAPULCO THAT SHOULD AFFECT CALVIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN 12 HOURS...BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE 5 KT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AT ANY TIME BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY SINCE CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.9N 102.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z6 --- NEAR 15.9N5 102.3W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 102.3W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.2N9 103.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.6N3 105.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 16.8N5 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.0N8 109.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 17.0N8 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z7, 282200Z4, 290400Z5 AND 291000Z2.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z6 --- NEAR 15.9N5 102.3W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 102.3W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.2N9 103.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.6N3 105.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 16.8N5 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.0N8 109.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 RRB *** VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 17.0N8 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z7, 282200Z4, 290400Z5 AND 291000Z2.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z6 --- NEAR 15.9N5 102.3W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 102.3W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.2N9 103.8W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.6N3 105.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 16.8N5 107.8W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.0N8 109.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 17.0N8 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z7, 282200Z4, 290400Z5 AND 291000Z2.// ** WTPZ33 KNHC 281150 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 ...CALVIN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM...MAINLY IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...103.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$